Friday 31st March 2023

A couple more unsettled days, then becoming more pleasant. But will it warm up?

Thanks to Marina for the photograph.

Today sees low pressure in charge – our last one for a while.

It will be mostly cloudy all day with outbreaks of rain. Not always raining, but fairly often, sometimes heavy – particularly (though not exclusively) in the afternoon and early evening. 11’C and quite windy. Further rain at times overnight, down to around 7’C.

Saturday’s details are a little sketchy, but generally showery outbreaks of rain to start the day, this clears to the south at some point in the morning, followed by mostly dry weather, though the odd shower will be possible – and maybe a little brightness. 10’C though feeling cool as the wind swings more north-easterly. Further showery rain pushing south-east in the evening, though it should be mostly light. Generally cloudy and around 5’C.

Sunday starts cloudy. Gradually this will break up, and it will become increasingly sunny as the day goes on. A cool north-easterly breeze, maybe 11’C but feeling cooler. Clear skies overnight, down to around 0’C so a frost for most – a bit lower in the more sheltered spots.

Monday sees high pressure to our east, stretching towards Scandinavia.

It will be mostly sunny with a bit of cloud at times. Still only 11’C with a light easterly breeze making it feel a little cool – though, of course, the sun feels quite strong now. Clear skies overnight, a frost likely for most, down to around -1’C. A small chance of mist/fog by dawn.

A bit more cloud around on Tuesday as weather fronts try to push in from the west – but it will be high/medium-level cloud, so often we’ll see hazy sunshine. 11’C, maybe 12’C. Probably fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 4’C.

Wednesday is probably cloudy as a weak weather front slowly pushes south-east – bringing mostly cloudy, but maybe a little patchy rain at some point. Temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 14’C.

Low confidence for Thursday, but more likely cloudy than sunny, perhaps some patchy light rain from a weak weather front. But don’t be too surprised if sunny (ish) instead – 60/40 split roughly in terms of likelihood. Temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 15’C.

I’m still pretty confident of high pressure being close by for Easter weekend. However, the tricky part is exactly where it will be and the source of the air – broadly speaking I expect it to somewhere to our east or north-east.

The slightly more likely outcome would lead to a fairly cool weekend in an easterly flow, temperatures roughly around 10’C, sunny at times, cloudy at times – perhaps with some light rain.

The slightly less likely outcome would lead to a mild/quite warm weekend in a southerly (ish) flow, temperatures roughly between 14’C and 18’C, often sunny.

We could also have a transition, say mild to cool, or vice versa. I’d say roughly 65/35 cool/quite warm in terms of chances.

After Easter, I’d suggest the slightly more likely outcome would see high pressure to our north, low to our south, so on the cool/average side, with a mixture of wet/showery days and drier/sunnier days.

Have a good weekend – as I mentioned I’m trialling a Tuesday/Friday morning cadence, so we’ll see how it goes!

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