Friday 30th September 2022

Rain followed by possible rain but warmer.

Thanks to Zara for the photograph.

Early mist, fog and low cloud should lift to some bright spells this morning, but cloud will be thickening from the west with rain arriving around 2pm. Some heavy rain at times, some fairly strong gusts of wind too – clearing around 8/9pm. 15’C before the rain, though a couple of degrees lower during the rain. Clear spells overnight, no lower than 11’C.

For Saturday we are in a westerly flow, with low pressure towards Iceland.

Sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud during the day, a few showers passing through – say a 40% chance of catching one, and it could be on the heavy side, but they’ll move through quickly. Still quite windy but milder than it has been, 18’C, maybe 19’C. Clear skies at first though cloud tending to thicken during the night – possibility of rain later but read ahead, around 10’C.

Sunday is unusually uncertain for just two days away. A small area of low pressure looks like it will develop – it may head across the southern half of England, or it may stay to our south. It could arrive on Saturday night, or any point in the first half of Sunday – unless of course it stays to our south.

So conditions could be anything from a day of heavy rain, to a bright and sunny day – or something in between, say cloudy and bright, or cloudy with some light rain – I don’t think we’ll know where this little low will track until tomorrow morning.

If I’m pushed, I’d suggest the heavy rain outcome is the slightly more likely. The Met Office model take it over France, the European model takes it over the far south of England.

We can be more confident for Monday as high pressure pushes up from the south-west. Most likely we’d be looking at hazy sunshine, temperatures around 17’C. Probably fairly cloudy overnight, with temperatures around 12’C.

By Tuesday we’ll be dragging notably warmer air up from the south-west, but we’ll have a weather front close to our north-west.

A bit of uncertainty on details, depending on how close the weather front is, but more likely we’ll be rather cloudy, dry and warmish – get a bit of sunshine then 20’C is possible, but if not then closer to 18’C.

The weather front may arrive in the evening on Tuesday to bring some patchy rain – but again this is uncertain. More likely it arrives at some point on Wednesday – possibly bringing some heavy rain.

Uncertainty reigns regarding the rain. However, before it arrives, it will be much warmer than normal. Very possibly also becoming notably windy.

By Thursday we should see another attempt at high pressure trying to build from the south/south-west – a pattern I expect to repeat during October. This should mean dry, sunny spells, variable cloud and temperatures somewhere around 17’C – probably still quite windy.

Friday, something roughly like quite cloudy, some sunny spells, a small chance of a shower and still on the breezy side. Around 18’C.

Early suggestions for next weekend would see a fairly similar pattern, some sunny spells, some cloud, the odd shower and temperatures perhaps a tad cooler. Though not especially high confidence.

Apologies for the uncertainty on rain timings for Sunday and Tuesday evening/Wednesday…it is what is. I’ll update during the weekend if I get time.

Next week should be back to the usual Monday/Thursday evening cadence. Have a good weekend.

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