Low pressure is slowly taking over – our long, hot, sunny days are gone, at least for now – though still some sunny and warm weather mixed in with some showers.

I do say that events can change previous expectations, and this change to somewhat unsettled conditions seems to have been caused by notable plunges of cold air into North America, which has fired up the jetstream.

It shouldn’t last more than two weeks, perhaps only one…but impossible to be sure on.

Thanks to Jo for the photograph.

The general set-up at the moment sees a westerly flow, with low pressure over Iceland – which will slowly head to Scandinavia over the coming few days. It isn’t a fully unsettled picture for us in the south – it just isn’t glorious like much of June was.

Friday starts bright but cloud will quickly thicken as a weather front moves across – bringing some patchy light rain, but fairly minimal amounts. Reaching around 18’C, so much cooler than it has been, and fairly breezy too. Remaining mostly cloudy overnight with bits and pieces of light rain, no lower than 16’C.

Saturday starts cloudy, some bits of light rain possible. The sun will start to appear in the morning, still a shower possible, though the afternoon will see gradually increasing amounts of sunshine and it will be dry. Becoming very warm, we should get to around 24’C, though quite windy. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of fair-weather cloud – likely more cloud than sun during the late morning through early afternoon period. Warm, 22’C though feeling less so in the north-westerly wind. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Monday sees more of the same, some sunny spells and quite a bit of fair-weather cloud – overall probably a little more cloud than sunshine, except in the morning. One or two showers possible, more likely late in the day. Around 22’C but still a notable north-westerly wind. A fair chance of some heavy showers in the evening, but dry with clear spells after, down to around 12’C.

By Tuesday low pressure is centred over Scandinavia and we are in a fairly cool flow – though it is July so still warm on the ground.

General conditions sees sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud, some scattered heavy showers, and temperatures around 21’C – and quite windy. Still warm, though it will feel cool in the wind.

Details start to break down from here, though the more likely outcome for Wednesday and Thursday is something broadly similar, with some cloud, some sunny spells and a chance of some showers – the wind becoming lighter and temperatures in a range of 20’C to 23’C.

Not actually that bad really, though there is a chance of a cut-off low from the main system bringing more in the way of general rain and wind.

By Friday and into next weekend, the slightly more likely outcome sees low pressure to our west (and one to our north, and one to our north-east) driving our weather – and it sucks up hotter air from the south, though after 1-3 days brings thundery downpours across.

The second most-likely outcome would be that low pressure over the UK for next weekend, which means rain/showers.

So basically 1-2 (maybe 3) very warm to hot days followed by thundery downpours, is the more likely outcome for Friday and into next weekend.

My thinking remains that the latter half/latter two-thirds of July will often be very warm/hot, but will also run in cycles of hot, then thundery downpours, then fine and warm, then becoming hot…etc, etc.

Overall I still think July will balance out as hotter than normal.

Enjoy your weekend.