Friday 29th October 2021

And low pressure is back in charge for the next week, which means rain and showers at times, a bit of wind, mild at first but becoming much cooler.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Might be a tiny bit rushed as I’m trying to squeeze it in before I start work, but let’s see how I get on.

Early cloud and rain will clear to sunny spells and scattered heavy showers this morning, the showers fading as the afternoon goes on and sunshine amounts increasing – mostly sunny from around mid-afternoon. Windy and mild, 14’C though a tad cooler in the afternoon. Clear skies at first overnight, though cloud slowly thickening after midnight with rain arriving shortly before dawn, 9’C.

For Saturday we have this large area of low pressure in charge, centred towards Iceland, with smaller low pressure areas developing around the circulation.

The morning sees a band of showery rain crossing, some heavy, clearing before lunchtime. Sunny spells after, a small chance of a shower, breezy and 13’C. Clear spells overnight at first, down to around 6’C – cloud thickening as the night goes on.

Sunday morning sees a band of rain spread west to east, roughly between 6am and midday, with around 4-5 hours of rain, some heavy/very heavy. Timing a bit uncertain – perhaps the window will be a bit later, say 9am to 3pm, or even a bit earlier. Sunny spells following. Some fairly strong winds during the rain, breezy otherwise. 13’C in the rain, a touch cooler after in the sunny spells. An outside chance of a shower in the evening/overnight but mostly clear spells, a bit of cloud, breezy and down to 6’C.

Low pressure still in charge on Monday, but it will actually be fine due to a lack of convection at this time of the year, and a lack of troughs or other features. So, sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud, a small chance of a stray shower, breezy and around 12’C. Clear spells at least at first overnight, down to around 3’C – a chance of an area of showers moving up from the south in the second half of the night, but that is uncertain at this stage.

Tuesday isn’t certain, but the more likely outcome is an area of rain/showery rain bringing a fairly wet day – or at least a good portion of the day. Possible instead that this stays to our south and we end up with a fine day, but rain is the more likely outcome by quite a way – say 80/20. Around 10’C, give or take.

By Wednesday we will be in a more northerly flow.

Sunny spells, fair weather cloud, a small chance of a shower and feeling chilly in the northerly breeze, 10’C. Chilly overnight – though uncertain on cloud amounts and hence whether there is a chance of a frost.

Thursday remains chilly, temperatures around 9’C. Sunshine most likely, though a bit of uncertain over any decaying weather fronts which could bring a bit of cloud and light rain. Chilly overnight, down to around 3’C but it could easily be colder – a frost possible.

Friday likely sees a bit more of a westerly flow return, cutting off the chilly northerly. Some cloud, some sunshine, around 10’C.

This westerly flow likely bringing a return to more changeable conditions, with some rain at some point next weekend – Saturday would seem more likely – likely a bit milder, temporarily.

Changeable conditions are likely to prevail though nothing especially wet (at least nothing you wouldn’t expect in November) – and north-westerly or even northerly flows are more likely than normal so temperatures will generally be a bit colder than normal for the time of year too.

And finished in time to start work. Have a good weekend.

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