Friday 29th December 2023

Rain before the year ends, and rain to start the new year too.

A rare indulgence from myself for the photography this time, with a glimpse of the rare nacreous clouds that I had the excitement of seeing on Christmas Eve up north.

Tonight sees showers fading, reasonably clear skies for a time but cloud will gradually thicken with a little rain arriving before dawn. Down to around 5’C.

The general picture for Saturday sees the next low pressure system arriving.

It will be mostly cloudy, perhaps a little brightness at times. The main band of rain stays to our west, but there will be occasional bits of rain throughout the day, more so in the morning. Becoming windy but also milder, 11’C. The band of rain will get its act together in the evening and push east – a little uncertainty on timing but anywhere from 8/9pm onwards, give or take. It does look like there will be a squall line mixed in – 15 to 30 minutes of very heavy rain and gusty winds, perhaps causing some isolated damage, say 11pm/midnight – but timing a little vague. Further showery rain will follow the likely squall band. Dry and cooler later in the night, down to around 4’C.

New Year’s Eve starts dry, and likely sunny. Cloud soon develops and a fair scattering of showers will push across – most places catching a few showers, some heavy/very heavy and quite squally in gusty winds. 8’C. Some showers overnight, but they will tend to become fewer – some clear spells and down to around 4’C. Still quite windy.

New Year’s Day is uncertain at this stage – the next low pressure will be approaching but there is also likely a cut-off low ahead of it, where the models are struggling to handle the direction. It’s roughly 50/50 as to whether it heads to southern UK or northern France, maybe 60/40 in favour of the UK. If so, then, well, it will be wet. If not, then sunny. Around 7’C either way. The next area of rain will arrive either in the evening or overnight, and winds will become strong again too. Will I make it to 2024 without booking a holiday?

Low pressure will be in control for Tuesday.

Details uncertain at this stage, but likely to involve rain and/or showers at some point. Around 10’C, give or take and breezy.

Wednesday is more likely sunny spells and heavy showers – perhaps a spell of general showery rain. Around 10’C or so.

Thursday and Friday more likely sees low pressure still around, with showers or rain at times and temperatures more likely in the range of 8’C to 10’C.

Next weekend may become colder – there are certainly fairly strong signals for high pressure to form either over the UK or to the north/north-west/north-east – all of which are cold solutions. Though perhaps next weekend might be a little too soon, and it happens into the week after.

This probable cold spell (as much as any weather patterns against the norm can be probable 8-10 days away) is nothing to do with the possible sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, which the media now seem to have picked up on…and right on cue it now looks more like a minor warming event than a major one.

Whether a minor SSW, if this is what it will be (still 10ish days away from happening), will affect our weather later in January is debateable. But before then, we already have a weak tropospheric polar vortex, along with an easterly QBO, El Niño and now a possibly favourable phase of the MJO – all things I mentioned in my winter forecast – all things that increase the chance of cold spells in northern Europe in winter.

Interesting times ahead…but no guarantees of cold – remember, it goes against our normal weather patterns in autumn/winter, so it takes something notable to overcome the mild.

Have a fun weekend and enjoy your New Year’s Eve if you are celebrating. Thanks for reading during 2023.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *