Friday 28th July 2023

Showery is the theme, and becoming cooler as August starts.

If I announce summer is over, that means it might restart, right? Granted it isn’t a washout like the summers of 2007-2012, but warm, sunny days are in the minority.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Today will be fairly cloudy, some occasional bits of light rain possible during the morning but also some occasional brightness too – the sun poking through from time to time. During the afternoon, there will be somewhat more in the way of sunshine, one or two well scattered showers and it will be fairly warm, reaching around 23’C. Fairly cloudy overnight with one or two showers, potentially heavy. No lower than 16’C.

So the general pattern for Saturday sees the next low pressure system arriving, with the following one already showing in the Atlantic. Yep, I’m booking more holidays ASAP.

Sunny spells and showers for Saturday – more showers in the morning and through lunchtime, you may miss them all but more likely you get a couple. Fewer showers and more sunny spells in the afternoon – reasonably pleasant! Fairly warm, we should just about get 22’C – quite windy though. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunday starts with sunny spells, though cloud gradually thickens during the morning – perhaps a shower before it does. Some outbreaks of rain in the afternoon – its not a well-developed weather front so it’s going to be a bit patchy, and some uncertainty on timing, but some rain at some points from midday onwards. Around 20’C or so, windy too. Cloudy overnight with some bits of rain, but often dry, no lower than 16’C.

Low pressure systems remain in charge for Monday though a little uncertainty on where weather fronts will be. A good enough general guide for the morning would be for it to be fairly cloudy with some showers (perhaps general rain), and for the afternoon more in the way of sunny spells, though again some showers possible. Warm and quite windy, around 23’C or so. Variable amounts of cloud overnight, some showers possible (a small chance of general rain though more likely over France), down to around 14’C.

Low pressure still in charge for Tuesday, now centred in the North Sea.

Some uncertainty on details – possibly wet, possibly dry, but most likely sunny spells and heavy showers, the potential for them to be very heavy and thundery. Around 21’C and less windy.

It doesn’t get any easier to forecast from here, and certainly doesn’t become more summer-like.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday through Friday sees a more northerly flow setting in with low pressure to our east. Some sunny spells, plenty of cloud and plenty of heavy showers, though perhaps fewer by Friday. Temperatures probably around the 18’C to 20’C mark – cool for early August.

There is a chance instead, that we get another low pressure system on Wednesday, bringing heavy rain and strong winds – then we get our northerly in the following days.

Which option do you want?!

We might get a ridge of high pressure for next weekend. It is the slightly more likely outcome, which would lead to a fine weekend, though perhaps it might be a fine Friday/Saturday with some rain by Sunday instead.

However, very low confidence, due to a possible tropical storm development in the Atlantic next week, so anything more than 5 days away has to be more uncertain than usual.

Maybe there will be something more summer-like in the second half of August. Maybe.

Have a good weekend.

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