Friday 27th May 2022

You’ll probably mostly be interested in the Jubilee bank holiday weekend weather. Well, I’m afraid that it has become very uncertain. I can tell you that it is going to become notably cooler in the meantime, thanks to a north-easterly wind – almost never a warm direction, even in late spring.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, temperatures down to around 8’C.

Saturday will be another pleasant day, though more cloud around than today – potentially it could be quite overcast for an hour or two during the middle of the day, but otherwise a mixture of sunny spells and fair weather cloud. A very small chance of a light shower. Reaching around 19’C though the breeze taking the edge off. Spells of cloud overnight, though some clear spells at times – and the odd lightish shower dotted around but most places dry. Down to around 8’C.

By Sunday the north-easterly breeze becomes more notable and visions of summer disappear.

Plenty of cloud – there will be some sunny spells but they will be limited. Some showers, nothing heavy likely but cannot be ruled out. Around 15’C and feeling cool in the notable breeze. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though some cloud around – a notably chilly night, down to around 3’C. The very most sheltered spots might even see a touch of frost. Eeek.

What would have been your bank holiday Monday (here’s what you could have won), looks OK. Fairly sunny to start but quite a lot of fair weather cloud bubbling up – some showers, possibly quite heavy but they will be hit and miss, some places staying dry. And sunny spells otherwise. Around 16’C but a much lighter breeze. Some cloud, some clear spells and the odd scattered shower overnight, down to around 5’C.

Tuesday looks like a mixture of sunny spells and showers – uncertain on shower amounts and potency at the moment, but nothing too frequent or too heavy looks more likely. Temperatures ticking up a tad to, say, 17’C. Likely clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Wednesday sees a weak area of low pressure over the UK – but the more important aspect of the set-up is the low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal – which starts to pump warmer air our way – but will it stay there?!

It is the last day that I have any reasonable confidence for though I wouldn’t be surprised if some details are off. But more likely we see reasonable sunny spells, some fair weather cloud at times, a small chance of a shower and warmer temperatures – thanks to the low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal, reaching around 20’C, give or take.

And then it gets seriously complicated and even more uncertain.

Probably, two broad things look like they will happen from Thursday. The low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal starts to move our way – but at the same time high pressure tries to build in from the west.

There are multiple scenarios that could occur. Amongst the more likely:

  1. Low pressure moves swiftly north-east on Thursday/Friday bringing a spell of heavy rain and/or heavy, thundery showers. Warm and humid. Saturday/Sunday then fresher but more settled with some sunshine as high pressure builds.
  2. Low pressure moves towards the UK on Thursday with a spell of heavy rain and/or heavy, thundery showers – but high pressure stops it moving through the UK and sends it back south. Friday through Sunday then a mixture of sunshine and cloud, with a risk of scattered heavy showers. Warm/very warm throughout/
  3. Low pressure moves towards the UK on Thursday, but doesn’t quite make it and heads back south. Heavy, thundery showers still probable on Thursday but drier for the west of the weekend as high pressure builds. Warm or warmish.
  4. Low pressure heads towards the UK on Thursday, bringing heavy rain and/or heavy, thundery showers – and gets stuck over the UK all weekend bringing sunshine and showers. Warm to start, but temperatures then depending on sunshine – potentially some cooler days in the mix.
  5. The low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal stays there, and we have a pleasant, warm and sunny weekend.

I guess we can conclude that bank holiday Thursday is probably going to see some heavy rain and/or heavy showers at some point, but be warm/humid.

After that, it is uncertain – possible we could have a very pleasant and warm weekend, possible we could have heavy showers all weekend – perhaps more likely a mixture of some dry, sunny weather and a few heavy showers.

Next week I’ll be back to the usual Monday/Thursday cadence, though I’ll probably do the Thursday one in the morning.

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