Friday 26th January 2024

Mostly mild and mostly dry. Pretty boring.

No photograph this week. Also boring.

Today will be mostly sunny. Cooler air in place though this is temporary – around 8’C. Breezy though becoming lighter as the day goes on. Mostly clear skies overnight, though some high cloud later. Some places getting a frost, especially more sheltered spots – down to around 0’C, give or take.

The general picture for Saturday sees the Iberian high pressure stretching towards the UK – with the air being sourced from Africa.

Mostly we’ll see hazy sunshine all day – the layer of fairly thin cloud will vary in thickness, otherwise a useable day. 8’C – the milder air yet to arrive, and a bit of a breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, but thin enough for a chilly night – down to around 3’C.

Sunday again sees hazy sunshine all day. 10’C and a bit of a breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 7’C.

Monday again remains with mostly hazy sunshine, though some low cloud at times too – more likely in the afternoon. Mild, though some uncertainty on temperatures – between 11’C and 14’C, though the upper part of the range looks more likely. A weak weather front crosses overnight, bringing mostly cloud but perhaps a little patchy rain – around 7’C.

Tuesday sees a transition from cloudier, milder conditions – perhaps with a little patchy rain, into sunnier but fresher conditions – timing uncertain though. Temperatures around 12’C when cloudy, 8’C when the sunnier skies arrive. A chilly night likely – frost possible though not especially likely.

Wednesday looks fairly cloudy but with some hazy sunshine. Both temperatures and wind speeds ticking up, reaching around 10’C and probably becoming windy. Likely cloudy overnight.

Thursday and Friday both look more likely to be cloudy but mild – somewhere between 12’C and 14’C, windy too.

Next weekend more likely remains very similar – still dominated by a really strong high pressure system over Iberia and western Europe in general – so plenty of mildness. Uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts at this stage – though cloud would seem more likely. Were it a couple of months later, it would be a really lovely set-up for those of us who love spring warmth. Alas, it’s still deep winter.

Where do we go from here? Well, I suspect a more UK-based high pressure system, or close to our west is still the more likely outcome from around mid-February – getting there may need to see a short unsettled spell after next weekend (perhaps starting next Sunday at the earliest). Such a UK-based high pressure system will mean more seasonal temperatures, more overnight frost/fog but also more sunshine potential. If it does then migrate west, then something colder will be plausible.

Interestingly it seems that the unusual technical sudden-stratospheric warming event we had, has strengthened the polar vortex as opposed to breaking it up – it was already quite broken up, we didn’t actually need an SSW at that point to bring us cold. It seems that this SSW event has actually stopped our cold spell – whereas they quite often bring about notable cold spells, ie the 2018 Beast From The East.

Still a lot to learn from the science of how SSW events – they only happen on average once every other winter, so there isn’t huge amounts of data about their impacts. Every event is a learning event for those interested.

That said, quite a lot of the stratospheric science is over my head – learning about it doesn’t pay the bills, and wow they are rather whopping when you own your own flat, as I am finding out!

Enjoy the mildness.

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