Friday 26th April 2024

Slightly milder…but wetter. Something warmer next week, albeit with showers/rain at times.

Thanks to Helena for the suitable photograph.

Starting with the general picture which sees a fairly weak area of low pressure over the North Sea, with another one slipping past to our west – towards Spain/Portugal, which then spins back north in the second half of the weekend.

A rather cloudy day for Friday, some brightness at times, though if anything cloud thickening as the day goes on. At least it should remain dry – too much cloud for showers to develop, and general rain is to our south. Around 11’C in an easterly breeze. The band of rain to our south will slowly move north overnight, some showery bits before midnight, tending to be more persistent later in the night though still showery in nature, so possible you don’t see much rain. Around 6’C.

Saturday starts cloudy with showery rain in places. This will drift north and fizzle out during the morning – generally it will remain cloudy, some occasional sunshine possible in the afternoon, showers possible also. Tending to be a bit milder, say around 12’C – if sunshine amounts surprise then maybe a 14’C. Showers in the evening developing into general rain, as low pressure moves north, likely heavy for a time overnight, with an outside chance of a rumble of thunder. Around 8’C.

Sunday probably starts wet – some uncertainty over exactly where the main rain will be in the morning – at best you’ll just have some light and patchy rain to come, at worst still 3, 6, maybe 9 hours of persistent rain to come. Gradually the cloud and rain will clear north, and you should see some sunshine before the day is out, depending on what time the rain clears. Maximum temperatures between 10’C and 12’C – depending on what time the rain clears. Clear skies overnight, down to around 3’C – perhaps a frost in the most sheltered spots.

By Monday we have a brand new low pressure moving in from the north-west – and for bonus points it takes our weekend low pressure into its circulation too.

It will actually be a reasonable day on Monday, with sunny spells, fair weather cloud and a chance of some scattered showers. One consequence of the weekend low is much warmer air over much of Europe, to the east of where the low pressure was, so we can get a slight influence too – up to 16’C. Clear skies and down to around 5’C overnight.

Low pressure remains close to our west for Tuesday, but more likely it is a reasonable day for us. Some uncertainty on details, but broadly sunny spells, some cloud at times, and some showers very possible. And around 16’C to 19’C.

Confidence has to remain very low on details from here, but it looks like we are going to get a warm but unstable easterly – tapping into the warmth over central Europe that the weekend low pressure caused.

Likely there will be heavy showers/rain at some points midweek onwards, but when raining it will still be mild and around 14’C, in sunshine then up to 20’C will be possible.

An interesting set-up, and for warmth-seekers like myself, a vast improvement on this week, even if it pours down!

The bank holiday weekend really could be anything right now. An Arctic blast is possible, likewise a plume of very warm air from the south – or anything in between. If I had to make a guess, and it is just a guess, then broadly warmish with showers is the slightly more likely outcome.

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