Friday 24th May 2024

A mixed bank holiday ahead, but there will be some warm sunshine – mostly on Saturday. At least Tuesday/Wednesday gone wasn’t the bank holiday!

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

The general set-up sees high pressure to our east and north-east, and low pressure to our west pushing in over the weekend. Tuesday/Wednesday’s low is still around, over Scotland, but fading quickly.

A sunny start for Friday, but cloud will bubble up during the morning to make it mostly cloudy, but still bright for a time. Cloud will tend to break to bring sunny spells as the afternoon goes on, but still a fair amount of fair-weather cloud, and a 20% chance of a light/moderate shower later too. 17’C, maybe 18’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though mist/fog patches possible by dawn. Down to around 8’C.

Saturday starts sunny. Some cloud will bubble up but less than today, and most likely the balance between cloud and sun will be broadly in favour of sunshine. Also some high cloud pushing in from the west later, making the sunshine hazy. I cannot totally rule out a light afternoon shower, but no more than a 5% chance. Warmer, around 21’C. Cloud thickens during the evening with outbreaks of showery rain arriving from around late evening onwards – not huge amounts of rain. Around 12’C.

Cloud and showery rain should have cleared by dawn on Sunday, or not long after. However it will very quickly be replaced by frequent heavy/very heavy showers, hail/thunder very possible. Some sunshine in between, and reaching around 19’C. Fewer showers by late afternoon, and they all should fade by mid-evening to leave a dry night with clear spells, down to around 8’C.

Bank Holiday Monday is more of the same, though fewer showers than Sunday. Some sunny spells, plenty of cloud, most places seeing at least a few showers, probably heavy, possibly thundery. Fresher once more, around 17’C. Clear skies at first overnight, becoming cloudy and perhaps some light rain later.

By Tuesday (well, by Monday really) two things are happening, the Azores high is trying to push in from the south-west, but also the jet-stream is re-invigorating.

It’s uncertain which will have more influence on Tuesday, but I suspect more likely both are influencing – so cloudy with some patchy rain is broadly the theme – but not much in the way of rain. Around 18’C or so.

Again uncertain on details for Wednesday, but probably low pressure to our north is close enough to bring some showers, perhaps a longer spell of rain, with temperatures around 18’C to 20’C.

By Thursday I think the more likely outcome sees the Azores high to our west, with a less warm north-westerly flow, a fair amount of cloud, some sunshine, some showers and temperatures around 18’C. Not especially high confidence.

The question for next weekend will be whether the Azores high can push in to bring a settled weekend, or whether low pressure will get to us first. I’d say the slight favourite is the Azores high at the moment, but some of the model runs this week have been pretty depressing so confidence is low. And even if the Azores high does push in, it may well have a fair amount of cloud underneath.

So a fairly mixed forecast – but there is some pleasant weather mixed in, especially for the Saturday of the bank holiday weekend.

Signals are pretty weak going into June, which is annoying as it is nearly time to write the summer forecast – but there remains a hint of high pressure (ie the Azores high) being close to our west to start June – which suggests average temperatures more likely than warm, though otherwise conditions uncertain as it will depend on how close it is – and whether low pressure is closer to our east and hence more influential.

Enjoy the bank holiday weekend if you can! I shall try to enjoy some sunshine on Saturday.

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