Friday 24th February 2023

Fairly cold.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Might be slightly shorter today as a late night at the theatre means that I have to try to do this before starting work…eek. Then again, the weather remains pretty boring and simple to write.

Today will be mostly cloudy, a weak weather front will bring a little bit of rain during the lunchtime period. Some sunny spells from around mid/late afternoon. 7’C in a northerly breeze. Some clear spells overnight, down to around 1’C – a frost probable, though a close call.

The theme for Saturday sees our resident high pressure area centred further north than it has been, between Iceland and Scotland, allowing a more easterly flow to pick up over the coming days.

Sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. A chance of a light (ish) shower or two during the day, and fairly chilly in the breeze as it veers more easterly, 7’C. Clear spells overnight, a frost likely, down to around 0’C.

Sunday sees sunny spells with some cloudier periods. A few light showers scattered in the flow, they should be of rain but a wintry touch not impossible – the air high above is is very cold. Down on the ground, a chilly 6’C. Clear spells overnight, though cloudy at times. Down to around 0’C – a frost probable, though a chance it will be too cloudy for one.

Monday is very similar, some sunny spells, more likely in the morning. Quite a bit of cloud in the afternoon, one or two light (ish) showers around, likely of rain. Around 7’C. Probably a frost overnight, though uncertainty on cloud amounts.

Tuesday likely sees more cloud than sunshine, a few light showers in the flow as the chilly easterly breeze continues. Around 7’C. A frost not so probable overnight, as more cloud currently expected.

Wednesday to Friday will be more or less the same kind of conditions, chilly, some sunshine, some cloud – overnight frosts possible but dependent on there being some clear spells.

Light (ish) showers possible at times, though less so by Friday.

Next weekend is the very earliest that we could start to see cold/wintry impacts from the sudden stratospheric warming, though more likely conditions remain broadly similar for now.

It all depends on where high pressure blocking systems set up, which they should do further north across the northern hemisphere – meaning easterly or northerly winds more likely at our latitudes, and hence cold with snow possibilities.

However, some areas will end up on the mild/warm side of such high pressure blocking systems (remember the 20’C in February in 2019?) so there is no guarantee of cold and wintry weather.

More likely there will be a mixture of conditions in March, with cold weather dominating, though with the jetstream firing up and heading south across Europe, these low pressure systems may at times be further north over the UK, bringing rain – or maybe disruptive snow as rain hits the cold air. Also maybe we can sneak a few mild days in, depending on how low pressure systems develop and where the cold air goes.

Plausible that March is just somewhat colder than normal but wet and not wintry – not impossible that we end up with some very mild/warm weather, but as I mentioned, it depends on where blocking high set up, and mostly likely they set up in cold positions for the UK and Europe.

It should be a very interesting month of weather – very much the opposite of February’s borefest.

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