Friday 23rd February 2024

Colder than it has been, though nothing unusual. Otherwise mixed, some sunshine, some showers, some rain.

Thanks to Hev for the photograph.

The general picture sees a large low pressure trough over north/western Europe, even digging down into parts of Spain – bringing colder Polar Maritime air.

Today sees sunny spells and heavy showers. The sunshine often hazy with a layer of high cloud, the showers generally heavy – hail and thunder could be mixed in, perhaps in any really heavy ones there could be a wintry touch too. Around 8’C but feeling cooler in the breeze, especially in the showers. Showers mostly fading in the evening, I cannot rule a stray overnight shower, but mostly there will be clear spells, and a frost – down to around -1’C. I think the first frost of February (air frost, ie 0’C or below).

Saturday sees more in the way of sunshine, especially in the morning and late afternoon – through late morning into early afternoon there will be more cloud, and some showers. Fewer showers than Friday, so you may miss them all, but some heavy ones around. Still on the chilly side, 8’C. Clear skies overnight, though high cloud will spread in from the west as the night goes on. Down to around -1’C and frosty.

Sunday sees low pressure spread down from the north-west, towards France. This will bring a cloudy day with at least some showery rain. Some uncertainty on details, we are more or less on the northern edge of where the rain is likely, so it could just be dribs and drabs, or it could be fairly persistent all day. More likely it is patchy and light/moderate for much of the day, with heavier and more persistent rain later in the day – but as I said, there is a fairly wide window in terms of what happens. Also it will gradually become windy – strong winds by the evening and overnight, perhaps touching gale force. 8’C by day, 5’C by night.

Monday sees low pressure slowly clearing – it cannot move east, so it sinks south towards Spain. They do need the rain!

Possibly still some showery rain in the morning, but it should gradually clear to brighter skies – note some uncertainty though. However the strong north-easterly wind will persist through the day, and it will feel pretty raw – reaching around 7’C but feeling colder. Winds easing and skies clearing overnight, down to around 1’C, give or take – perhaps a frost.

Tuesday looks dry with hazy sunshine. Around 8’C. A weak weather front crossing overnight, bringing cloud and a bit of patchy rain – down to around 4’C.

Wednesday will be dry with some sunny spells, some cloud. Temperatures up a notch to 10’C.

Thursday at least starts dry – a weather front looks like it will spread east either in the afternoon, or evening/overnight, bringing some rain – timing uncertain at this stage.

The more likely outcome for Friday and into next weekend sees low pressure around – so further showers and perhaps general wind/rain. Not especially high confidence, but the more likely outcome.

We’ve had another one of those technical sudden stratospheric warming events – it has been a strange winter. It’s kind of comparable to the technical recession described on the news last week, yes it is a recession but there’s little impact in terms of unemployment – yes there has been a sudden stratospheric warming event, but there should be little impact in terms of changing the weather down in the troposphere.

I think the trend for March will see the jetstream further south than normal – France/Spain may be wetter than normal, for example. Likely we’ll therefore also see low pressure quite often, with rain/showers at times – and average temperatures more likely, which is almost akin to saying cooler than normal, given the crazily warm Atlantic Ocean, which keeps setting records.

Enjoy your weekend.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *