Briefly autumnal, but then gradually improving during the weekend – and becoming hotter and sunnier again during next week.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

So we start with a fairly vigorous secondary pressure system, connected to the main low to our north.

Friday starts with some cloud and light rain, but this is quickly pushed east and replaced by sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud. Likely some high cloud pushing up from the south-west this afternoon, making it a bit hazy. Winds slowing easing but remaining breezy, around 21’C. Cloud thickens this evening with rain arriving after midnight – heavy at times. No lower than 13’C.

Saturday morning will be wet, with heavy rain – potentially very heavy at times. Lunchtime onwards it will become more showery, there will be some limited sunny spells – but said sunny spells will only cause some beefy showers to develop, potentially very heavy and thundery. Probably no higher than 18’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and down to around 10’C.

Sunday starts sunny. Plenty of cloud will bubble up with a mostly cloudy spell lunchtime onwards for a fair few hours. It should stay dry though temperatures still lower than normal, around 19’C, maybe squeeze a 20’C. Also breezy once more. Some cloud overnight, a shower possible, around 13’C.

Bank Holiday Monday sees more in the way of sunshine. Still some cloud bubbling up, a 30% chance of a shower – roughly speaking about the same amount of cloud and sunshine over the course of the day. Warmer, 22’C. High cloud spreading across overnight, around 14’C.

Change afoot by Tuesday as high pressure develops close to our east – though weather fronts still close to our west.

Most likely Tuesday is either sunny or sees hazy sunshine, and it will be very warm – around 25’C. There is some uncertainty over how close weather fronts to our west are, but likely far enough away for it to stay sunny, or hazily sunny.

Wednesday sees the breeze coming from the south, so we’ll be importing hotter air. Most likely we’ll see good spells of sunshine, temperatures between 26’C and 28’C more likely.

By Thursday things become much more uncertain, as low pressure approaches from the west. The weather models were treating it as a small low that would drift south-east towards Spain/Portugal, and act as a heat pump – that’s still possible, but now it seems slightly more likely it will drift across the UK, and introduce fresher air.

So if we deal with slightly more likely outcome first, this sees low pressure crossing the north of the UK, and bringing showers at some point, more likely Thursday, perhaps Friday – hot before it arrives, but then more likely back to warm/very warm and sunny for the weekend.

The slightly less likely outcome sees low pressure drifting down to Spain/Portugal, or to the west of it, allowing hotter air to spread up – which could see temperatures in the low 30’C for a few days. This outcome also brings a risk of thunderstorms at some point.

Roughly a 60/40 split in likelihood, and remember these are broad outcomes, there could be some other solution, or a mix of both solutions.

Reasonable confidence on the first week of September being on the warm and sunny side of the spectrum.

So not quite a glorious bank holiday weekend, but at least Monday looks very pleasant, and there is more summer to come. Enjoy your weekend!