Friday 22nd September 2023

Hello from sunny again Spain, to sunnier soon Britain.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Early cloud will clear to leave sunny spells for the morning. Cloud will bubble up from around midday with a scattering of showers developing, some heavy – around a 75% chance of catching a couple, but you may miss them all. Reaching around 17’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

By Saturday we see a ridge of high pressure building from the south – with the remnants of Hurricane Nigel merging with low pressure to our west.

It leaves us with a fine day, sunny spells and variable amounts of fair weather cloud. Around 17’C, maybe squeezing an 18’C. Cloud thickening somewhat overnight as weather fronts try to push in from the west – down to around 12’C.

Sunday sees spells of hazy sunshine – the cloud perhaps thick enough for a splash of rain but most likely the rain will stay further west/north. Sunshine amounts likely to increase later in the day. Warmer though quite windy, 19’C, maybe 20’C. The weather front crosses overnight, bringing mostly cloud and the odd spot of rain. No lower than around 15’C.

Monday may start cloud from the overnight weather front but it will clear to leave good spells of sunshine, a bit of fair weather cloud and it will be warm – around 22’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though there is a chance of importing a heavy shower from France. Down to around 13’C.

Tuesday is where things start to break down in terms of confidence, but broadly warm, with variable amounts of cloud, some sunshine at times but also a chance of some heavy showers. Around 21’C, give or take.

By Wednesday things are very much up in the air. Likely still on the warm side, but otherwise uncertain – potentially wet or very wet though.

It does look like the jetstream will be re-invigorated as next week goes on, but the track is a little uncertain – generally from Wednesday onwards it should remain quite warm, or warm, but on some days there will be wind and rain – other days fine and pleasant. Getting the day-to-day pattern looks a little off, maybe will take a couple more days of model runs to sort this out.

October still broadly looks warmer and drier than normal, due to an expected high pressure block close to our west – though this certainly does not preclude spells of rain too, depending on where low pressure gets stuck due to the block.

I’m off to go find a castle and then some sangria. Enjoy your weekend!

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