Friday 22nd November 2024

One more cold day before milder, wetter and windier weather arrives, with Storm Bert.

Thanks to Karen for the photograph.

So the general picture sees us in this cold northerly-ish flow for Friday – Storm Bert way out to the west.

We start Friday with sunny spells though also some patchy cloud – a small chance of a light wintry shower. Generally mostly sunny for the rest of the day, though high cloud will build later in the afternoon. Another pretty cold day, reaching around 6’C but the breeze making it feel colder – especially first thing. A frost at first tonight, down to around 0’C but temperatures will climb from there as cloud thickens further, with outbreaks of rain starting from around 4am.

Saturday starts with some rain – most likely light/moderate rain, and quite patchy so not always raining in the morning. The rain generally more persistent in the afternoon, and occasionally heavy too – but there could still be some drier spells mixed in. The wind strong from mid-morning onwards, 40mph gusts so the odd tree branch down – that kind of level. Chilly to start the day but temperatures will continually rise – reaching 13’C by the evening. Further outbreaks of rain overnight, some heavy – and the wind stronger, 50mph gusts possible, so the odd fence panel down, etc. Around 14’C though, so much milder.

Sunday has some uncertainty over exactly where the trailing weather front will be, and hence where and when the rain will be focused. However, there will be rain, it could be heavy/very heavy at times – it could rain all day, or just parts of the day, but rain it will. Also some uncertainty on the strength of winds, most likely up to 50mph gusts, but an outside chance of something stronger, say 60mph gusts which would be more disruptive – do keep an eye on any warnings the Met Office issue. Around 15’C. Rain slowly easing east in the evening/overnight, some uncertainty on timing – and winds easing too, though remaining breezy. Around 9’C.

The rain should have cleared by Monday morning, though a small chance that it is still hanging around at first. Otherwise sunny spells, some cloud, still windy and a chance of a blustery shower or two. Around 10’C. Showers still possible overnight, down to around 5’C.

High pressure should try to build over the UK by Tuesday.

So Tuesday should be a reasonably sunny day, some cloud and around 9’C. More likely clear and frosty overnight – though there is a chance of an area of rain spreading up from the south-west.

Wednesday is uncertain – there may be a small low pressure system nearby which would bring rain, though I’m not convinced on the modelling of it – it could easily not exist, and just be sunny. 50/50.

Thursday and Friday more likely see high pressure holding on, probably on the sunnier side of the spectrum, say around 9’C – frost probable overnight.

Low pressure somewhat more likely to then push through at some point next weekend, bringing some wind and rain, and milder conditions. Though not for certain, maybe high pressure can hang on a bit longer. Say 70/30 roughly in terms of percentage chances.

Have a good weekend.