Friday 22nd April 2022

Were it February, we might be calling the current set-up The Beast From The East. As it is April, temperatures will be fairly normal instead – though there is a frost risk for some nights ahead. And remaining fairly dry, though some showers.

Though things may cool down more later. I did say a few weeks ago that I didn’t have much hope for any significant spells of warm sunshine in April and May due to the strong final warming event of the stratosphere a month or so ago. We lucked out for Easter, and there will likely be some warm sunshine at times in May. But do keep expectations low for the next few weeks.

The same event has also sent the jetstream south – hence we are drier than normal, but Spain has been much wetter than normal. Those viewing on the website will be able to see a precipitation anomoly chart – purples are much wetter than normal, orange/red much drier than normal – this is for the last 6-7 weeks or so.

Thanks to Chris for the sunny photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy. A few clear spells, maybe the odd spot of rain – but cloud dominant. Down to around 9’C.

For Saturday we see low pressure over France, and high pressure to our north – with a resulting easterly flow.

More cloud than sunshine overall, and more cloudy in the morning than the afternoon – there will be some sunny breaks, especially in the afternoon. Some showers will break out, around a 40% chance of catching one and they could be quite heavy. Quite warm, 18’C – but the easterly wind taking the edge off how it feels. An area of cloud spreading up from the south in the evening, perhaps a shower or two again, clear spells from late evening onwards. Down to around 8’C.

Sunday starts sunny. Quite a lot of fair weather cloud bubbling up from around lunchtime, more cloud than sunshine but still some sunshine and pleasant enough, despite the easterly wind. Around 16’C. It should be dry, just an outside chance of a short shower. Clear spells at times overnight, tending to be more cloud towards dawn, down to around 6’C.

Monday sees the wind become lighter but turn more north-easterly – and temperatures will drop. Some sunny spells but lots of cloud and quite a rash of showers – perhaps you’ll avoid them, but most places catching a few. 13’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 3’C so rather chilly – a touch of frost in the most sheltered spots possible.

Tuesday starts sunny but lots of cloud will spread down from around late morning, and it will be mostly cloudy with the odd bright spell from then onwards. An outside chance of a shower, but most likely dry. 14’C. Clear spells overnight, minimum temperatures a bit uncertain as uncertain on cloud amounts – but somewhere between 0’C and 5’C – which does mean a chance of frost.

Wednesday is uncertain on cloud amounts, but more likely mostly cloudy than otherwise and as such, temperatures around 12’C. However, I wouldn’t rule out a partly cloudy day – or even a sunny day, in which case we’ll be closer to 15’C. Still uncertain on cloud amounts overnight, but more likely clear or fairly clear – which does mean a chilly night more likely with a risk of frost.

Thursday sees high pressure remain in control, probably to our north-west.

Again uncertainty on cloud amounts, more likely partly cloudy or rather cloudy – though all options open. Temperatures ticking up a bit, say 16’C. A chilly night likely.

Friday remains dry with high pressure in control and a light easterly wind. Uncertainty on cloud amounts remains, with anything from partly cloudy to totally cloudy possible, and hence temperatures could range from 11’C to 16’C (higher with less cloud). A chilly night likely.

Saturday will be similar with the notable uncertainty on cloud amounts. Temperatures somewhere between 9’C and 15’C, arguably more likely in the lower part of that range and depending on cloud amounts – it could be anywhere from partly cloudy to fully cloudy. Chilly overnight, perhaps a higher frost risk.

Sunday perhaps less likely to be cloudy, so more sunshine, though maybe a shower or two. Temperatures somewhere between 11’C and 17’C.

And for the week after? Well, maybe an Arctic blast, and generally an increased chance of showers, even if the Arctic blast doesn’t happen.

Bet you are all smiles after reading that, huh?

Well, there are suggestions that high pressure may orientate into a warmer position starting somewhere around 7th to 10th May, approximately. Overall I do expect may to be very mixed, some showery spells, some cooler spells, but also a some warm/very warm days too.

Tentative signs that summer might be warmer and sunnier than normal overall – though a fair mixture of usual summer conditions. Very early days for a summer forecast so take it with a huge pinch of salt, but I’m more hopeful than I was a month ago.

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