Friday 21st October 2022

The warmer than normal flow continues, with rain or showers at times.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph…though it doesn’t really match my forecast. Photograph beggars cannot always be choosers!

Friday sees two areas of low pressure, the main one to our south-west with a connected one to our west. The one to the south-west is still in charge.

It will be fairly cloudy with scattered showers, some heavy, a small chance of hail/thunder – though maybe you’ll miss them all. A little sunshine at times, reaching around 18’C and becoming quite windy later. A more organised band of heavy showers looks like it will cross mid/late afternoon, into early evening – scattered heavy showers possible for the first half of the night after this band, then dry with clear spells. 11’C.

By Saturday, our low pressure spins back on itself, so things are more stable and settled over the UK. Hazy sunny spells to start, it will become somewhat cloudier in the afternoon, but still some bright/sunny spells at times. A smallish chance of a lightish shower. Around 17’C with a bit of a breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, a band of heavy showers pushing up from the south-west around 4am, give or take, a small chance of thunder/lightning. Breezy and very mild, 14’C.

Sunday starts with heavy/very heavy showery rain. This clears fairly quickly, followed by some sunny spells (hazy?), but also further heavy/very heavy showers – thunder, lightning, hail and gusty winds all very possible – could (I stress could) be something very potent in the mix. We should get to 18’C. Further heavy showers likely in the evening and first part of the night, probably drier later. A chance of some strong winds overnight – needs watching also. Around 12’C.

By Monday the low pressure system is finally on the move, and heading north-east – though we’ll remain in a warmish south-westerly flow for a while, as the jetstream does its wavy thing, dipping south into the Atlantic, then heading north-east over the UK.

Monday will be calmer. Some sunny spells though more in the way of cloud. Some showers around, more likely catching a couple than staying dry, but you may miss them. Around 16’C. Variable cloud overnight, around 10’C.

Tuesday should be dry with some sunny spells…though plenty of cloud. I say should, because rain may be arriving at some point – currently more likely in the evening but maybe it will be earlier. 17’C or so. Rain possible in the evening – though how this develops is very uncertain at this stage.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday keeps weather fronts close to our west – we’ll be in a warmish southerly flow, with hazy sunshine. Temperatures around 18’C, maybe a tad more.

From here, details are too uncertain to be worth attempting daily forecasts, but the general pattern is set for Thursday, Friday and probably the weekend – which keeps the southerly or south-westerly flow.

I think most of the time the weather fronts will be to our west – but we should get some showers and/or weakening weather fronts crossing occasionally. Variable cloud with some sunny spells or hazy sunshine, otherwise. Potentially windy. Mild nights and fairly warm days, for the time of year – I don’t think temperatures will be below 16’C. 18’C more likely, 20’C possible.

November most likely starts with similar conditions, though should become more settled after the start of the month, with chilly nights becoming more likely.

The chances of a colder than normal December are increasing somewhat in my view. Still fairly confident on it being drier than normal.

Have a good weekend…I should be back on Monday, all being well.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *