Well we had our first 20’C of the year yesterday – a showery weekend to come though.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

The general set-up sees our plume of warm air moving east, as low pressure heads our way from the west of Portugal.

Today sees mostly high/mid-level cloud so it will often be bright, sometimes kinda hazy sunshine. The cloud tending to be thicker in the morning, perhaps a little light rain, the cloud a bit thinner in the afternoon. Still quite warm, reaching around 18’C. Showery rain moves in for the evening, say by around 6pm though don’t hold me to an exact time, on and off for around 6 or so hours. Cloudy for the rest of the night and around 10’C.

Saturday starts mostly cloudy, perhaps a little misty in places. It will slowly break up to allow some sunny spells, but as the sun comes out, showers will develop – some heavy, perhaps thundery. Still a quite warm feel, 16’C is plausible with enough sunshine. Further showers possible in the evening and overnight, down to around 9’C.

Sunday looks fairly cloudy with either heavy showers breaking out, or perhaps (less likely) general showery rain – depending on the exact positioning of the low pressure. A chance of some limited sunny spells – if you do get some sunshine, then 15’C or so is possible, but otherwise then around 12’C. Generally cloudy overnight, perhaps still a little bit of showery rain – but any rain will tend to fade and become light. Down to around 8’C.

Likely a lot of cloud around on Monday. Plausible that it could break up in the afternoon into sunny spells, but uncertain – and more likely it stays on the cloudier side. Temperatures either around 11’C or around 16’C – depending on if the sun comes out. Mostly cloudy overnight, around 7’C.

By Tuesday we start to see a more westerly flow, though likely the Azores High nudges in.

Some uncertainty on cloud amounts once more, but more likely on the cloudier side of the spectrum, and assuming so then temperatures around 13’C or so. However – something a bit sunnier (at times anyway) is possible, and temperatures around 16’C. A chilly night likely.

Wednesday stays dry – again uncertainty on cloud amounts, and I’d suggest a broad split between cloud and sunshine more likely, but it could easily be rather cloudy, or rather sunny. Again temperatures to match, more likely around 14’C or 15’C – but 12’C or 17’C possible if either on the cloudier or sunnier sides of the spectrum.

Likely more cloud for Thursday, with weather fronts starting to push in from the west – probably minimal amounts of rain, if any, still some sunshine possible and roughly around 15’C.

The somewhat more likely outcome for Friday and into next weekend see the return of low pressure, with spells of wind and rain – and temperatures back on the cool side. I don’t have especially strong confidence on this outcome.

Still not seeing any effect of the sudden-stratospheric warming event in the models – my semi-educated guess was that it wouldn’t impact until April anyway. My assumption remains that we’ll see further cool weather in the first half of April at least.

Have a pleasant weekend, I should be back on Monday morning, all being well.