Friday 21st June 2024

It must be summer – the sun is shining, my windows need to stay open overnight – and England football team are stinking out the place. What on earth did I watch last night? Thankfully there is more joy to be had with the weather.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

We start Friday with high pressure loosely in control – a thundery low over the continent not heading our way, though the jetstream is fairly strong to our north-west, which will bring some interruptions to our fledgling summer.

Sunshine to start Friday, fair-weather cloud will bubble up and likely more cloud than sunshine during the lunchtime period. Into the afternoon, the cloud will break once more to bring increasingly long spells of sunshine, though also some high cloud making it a little hazy later. Very warm, reaching 24’C, maybe 25’C. Cloud will thickening during the evening, some patchy light/moderate rain by late evening and into the early hours. No lower than 13’C.

Saturday starts cloudy, perhaps some light rain/drizzle at times. It will slowly brighten up during the morning, one or two scattered heavy showers will be possible for a time, but during the afternoon it will become increasingly sunny, dry and very warm again – somewhere between 23’C and 25’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Sunday sees the lovely Azores High building over the UK. Some uncertainty on cloud amounts, there is the potential for an area of cloud to become trapped under the high which would lead to a cloudy day, or a long spell of cloud with some sunny spells at times – but even so, 22’C to 24’C should be achieved. Should it be on the sunnier end of the scale, 26’C is achievable. Any cloud should break up in the evening and overnight, with temperatures around 14’C.

By Monday, high pressure is holding on, though weather fronts will be trying to push in – and we’ll need to watch a thundery low over Switzerland to see what that does.

Monday will be hot and sunny at times, if not all day. Some cloud possible, especially through the lunchtime period – perhaps more cloud than sun, but some uncertainty and a lack of cloud remains possible. Reaching around 28’C, give or take – the first hot day of the year. A warm night possible too.

Tuesday becomes more uncertain as a weather front tries to push in from the west and the European developing low edges closer too. We should stay hot with sunny spells and fair-weather cloud, but certainly a chance of a shower. Temperatures somewhere between 26’C and 30’C. Though there is a chance instead of something cloudier with perhaps some rain – say 80/20 in favour of the hot and sunny outcome.

From there is goes highly uncertain in terms of details – most likely the thundery low arrives on Wednesday, but until any rain/thunderstorms arrive it will likely remain hot humid – Wednesday could easily be a wet day, but also it could be hot, humid and sunny, awaiting thunderstorm development.

Thursday and Friday are impossible to forecast at this stage, and will depend on what the thundery low does – if pushed, then showery is arguably the more likely outcome.

There are no signals at all for July at the moment. I can only assume fairly ordinary summer weather is more likely – some spells of very warm sunshine, mixed with more changeable spells.

Enjoy the spell of summer (if you can) – alas I’m going to Switzerland, the one place in Europe this weekend with rain.

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