Friday 21st July 2023

Unsettled is the theme though today will be fair.

Thanks to Pauline for the photograph.

Today sees hazy sunshine – sunniest early this morning, gradually cloud will thicken during the day, particularly in the afternoon but it will remain bright with hazy sunshine. A small chance of a shower. Breezy, reaching 21’C so a little less warm than it has been. Some clear spells overnight though cloud thickening towards dawn, with some patchy rain possible. Down to around 12’C.

The general picture for Saturday sees the next area of low pressure move in – it will move across the country quicker than I previously expected, so less scope for persistent downpours – but still rain and heavy showers.

Saturday itself will be mostly cloudy, occasional patchy and likely light rain in the morning, but dry for much of the morning. The afternoon seeing the rain gradually becoming more persistent and moderate, perhaps heavy at times as the evening progresses. We might squeeze 19’C but pretty academic – quite windy too. Rain mostly clears around/after midnight, though it remains cloudy and the odd shower is possible. Around 16’C.

Sunday sees plenty of cloud but there will also be some sunny spells. Some uncertainty on details, particularly over shower development – the potential to develop some heavy showers, but that will depend on how much leftover cloud there is from the previous day’s rain – there could be too much cloud to develop showers. Reaching around 22’C, a warmer feel. Variable cloud overnight – a chance of showers or even showery rain, but again some uncertainty over exact developments. Around 15’C.

Again on Monday there is uncertainty on details – the more likely outcome is some sunny spells but plenty of cloud and some heavy/very heavy showers developing, perhaps thundery. However, there is a chance instead of some general showery rain, perhaps then clearing to something drier. Temperatures look on the cool side, between 18’C and 20’C, with a northerly breeze. Probably dry with some clear spells overnight, down to around 10’C.

Tuesday sees a ridge of high pressure, so fairer – some sunny spells, some cloud, a chance of a shower or two – though less likely than previous days. More likely you’ll stay dry than catch a shower or two. Around 21’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though some high cloud, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday sees the next low pressure approaching. Have we jumped to autumn?

Likely sunny spells to start, if hazy, but cloud will gradually increase with rain arriving – it’s 5 days away so some leeway required on timing, but early to mid afternoon would seem a good approximation at this stage. With enough early sunshine then we should reach 20’C or so, though cooler once the rain arrives. Outbreaks of rain likely overnight.

Cloud clearing to sunny spells on Thursday, and perhaps a shower or two – though uncertain. Warmer, around 23’C or so.

Friday, maybe relatively fair though the next low pressure system will be arriving – they are pushing through quite speedily which also means much of the continental heat is being abated too, at least away from the far south/south-east of Europe. For us on Friday, some sunny spells, a chance of a shower seems the more likely outcome, and around 21’C.

The more likely outcome for next weekend sees further showers, perhaps some general wind and rain at some point, and temperatures not likely above 20’C.

Is there any hope for a return to summer-like conditions this year?

Well, yes. There are hints of high pressure trying to nudge in from the south-west during the first week of August – though likely it is still changeable with some rain/showers mixed in with dry days.

And hints from the second week of August that it may build in a more favourable position for some much warmer/hotter weather, though with the risk of thunderstorms and probably not a long-lasting change.

Overall August should still be a wetter than normal month, but perhaps we do still get some summer-like conditions in the mix too…which I guess we did early July too…but that seems a long way away now.

I do stress very low confidence on details for August.

Oh well.

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