Colder than normal with some showers. Yay.
Thanks to Chris for the photograph.
So the general set-up for Friday sees high pressure to our north with an easterly flow and a little cold pool of air over the UK.
This morning will be mostly cloudy, a bit of hazy sunshine at times, but plenty of showers developing – some heavy. Some sunny breaks in the afternoon, alongside some heavy showers – these tending to become fewer by late afternoon. We might squeeze 10’C in an easterly breeze. Clear skies overnight, though mist/fog patches forming later in the night. Down to around 2’C – a frost possible in more sheltered spots.
Saturday sees early mist/fog lifting, and generally the morning will be fairly cloudy with some hazy sunshine, any showers should be on the lighter side of the scale. A greater chance of showers in the afternoon, or perhaps a longer spell of rain, say 2-3 hours, perhaps on the heavy side. Around 12’C. Showers possible overnight though some uncertainty – a greater chance towards dawn.
Sunday and heavy showers on Sunday, though perhaps the morning cloudier with some general showery rain – some uncertainty on where this tracks, it could be further east. Otherwise, yeah, showers. Around 13’C. A bit of a mixture overnight, some cloud, some clear spells – the odd shower still possible, down to around 4’C.
Looking for it to get colder? Well, I’ve got an Arctic flow for you next week.
Two things are happening – one, colder air will be pushing down from the north, though at the same time, low pressure to the west of Spain/Portugal will be acting as a heat pump, pushing hot air north. The cold air will win.
Ominously some models are suggesting that Spain will break it’s record April temperature next week, a record that was set…oooh…11 days ago. The record is 33.7’C – one model is suggesting 40’C is possible near Seville. In April.
The counter-acting influence keeping us in colder flows in the UK is probably the sudden stratospheric warming event that happened in mid-February – or at least its previous impact on weather patterns.
Anyway, Monday starts fairly cloudy and cool, some scattered showers, probably on the lighter side. A bit more sunshine in the afternoon, but also some heavier showers – though fairly scattered so you may stay dry or mostly so. Cool in the northerly breeze, 11’C. Increasingly clear skies overnight with a frost possible, particularly in more sheltered spots, down to around 1’C.
Tuesday starts sunny, likely a lot of cloud bubbles up from late morning with limited sunny spells from then. Cool, 10’C, maybe 11’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of light rain later, down to around 4’C.
Details becoming sketchier from here, but tending to see low pressure edging east towards us, cutting off the cooler northerly flow and slowly becoming milder…maybe…maybe warmer.
Fairly low confidence for Wednesday, but broadly probably fairly cloudy and cool, maybe a little light rain around. Roughly 11’C.
Again fairly low confidence for Thursday, but either cloudy or partly cloudy with some sunny spells, and around 14’C.
Maybe some showery rain around on Friday, but if the sun comes out, then maybe 17’C or so possible. Very low confidence!
Next weekend could realistically be anything that you could expect in April, but a slight favourite would be something warmer and drier – say between 16’C and 20’C.
Conflicting signals for May – the heat pump low is probably going to be a feature to the west of Spain at some point(s), but as this coming week shows, that doesn’t mean the heat will reach the UK (or even France).
I’d expect the overhang of the SSW event to still be in play, so high pressure featuring to our north at times, which means more easterly or northerly flows – however easterlies in May can easily be warm (if with heavy, thundery showers), depending on exact conditions.
There is also a weak signal for something more unsettled towards or just before the middle of May.
Best chance for warm sunshine probably early or late May – though that aforementioned warm easterly with showers, perhaps the theme in late May.
Obviously this is all kind of conjecture, based on current atmospheric patterns, past weather patterns and weak future signals.
Enjoy your weekend.