Warm for a few days but gradually becoming more unsettled – and then much cooler later next week.

Thanks to Andy for the photograph.

So the general set-up sees a warm easterly flow remain over the UK, though low pressure to the west of Portugal will drift towards us over the weekend (or I’m bringing it back from holiday?!).

Friday starts with low cloud, some mist/fog patches too. This will lift during the morning, but at the same time an area of instability moving in from the east will potentially drive some showers to develop as soon as the sun comes out, during the morning and into lunchtime – say a 50% chance of catching a shower, possibly heavy, a chance of thunder. By mid-afternoon the shower threat will have moved west, not totally impossible to develop one here but unlikely – and by then mostly sunny and very warm, at around 23’C in the easterly breeze. Fairly cloudy overnight, one or two well-scattered heavy showers may drift up from France, perhaps some elevated lightning, but not especially likely. Around 15’C.

Early cloud will clear on Saturday to sunny spells. Heavy showers will develop during the morning, perhaps thundery – though these will drift west during the afternoon so showers less likely from early afternoon onwards, though still possible. Around a 60% chance of catching a shower or two, perhaps also thundery. Increasing sunshine later, very warm at around 24’C. Cloud and more heavy showers spreading up from the south by around late evening, if not general showery rain – thunder possible. Around 14’C.

Sunday generally looks cloudy with showery rain, often heavy, perhaps very heavy, a small chance of some thunder mixed in. Welcome back to the UK for me! That said, I should also stress that there will likely be dry spells – some uncertainty on exact details on when and where the most rain will fall. Around 20’C and feeling a bit humid too. Some cloud overnight, around 12’C – a chance of mist/fog patches by dawn.

By Monday the low pressure is still around, though starting to fade a bit. Sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and a few showers – around a 70% chance of catching at least a couple, possibly on the heavy side. Still around 20’C which isn’t too bad for late September. Clear spells at first overnight, but cloud and some bits of rain crossing later in the night, as the low clears. Around 13’C.

A calmer day for Tuesday, sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud, a 30% or so chance of a shower or two, though more likely light/moderate. Around 19’C. Cloud thickening overnight with rain spreading from the west.

Wednesday sees an Atlantic low pressure system moving across, more of a traditional autumn vibe.

Some uncertainty on the exact track, but either we’ll see general rain, or showers – and it will be on the windy side. More likely we’ll remain in the milder air, so around 17’C.

For Thursday we’ll be in a cooler north-westerly flow. Sunny spells and showers the broad theme, and temperatures closer to 14’C. Yuck. A chilly night likely.

The cooler flow continues for Friday, though likely more in the way of sunshine and less showers. Around 13’C. Likely on the chilly side overnight.

The cooler weather most likely remains for next weekend, otherwise uncertain.

Enjoy the probable last of the summer warmth for this year…though I wouldn’t rule out some warmish weather at times in October.