Friday 1st March 2024

Spring is here but autumn continues – can confirm that it was a gloriously wet and wild walk this morning.

More showers to come.

Thanks to Marina for the photograph.

Heavy rain on Friday morning will give way to sunny spells and scattered heavy showers – you may miss all the showers, but more likely you catch a few. Showers heavy/very heavy, perhaps with hail/thunder or even sleet/wet snow. Windy, especially in the showers, 8’C but feeling colder than that. Some showers in the evening/overnight – with a trend towards general heavy showery rain in the latter part of the night – a small chance of some sleet/wet snow mixed in. Down to around 3’C.

Low pressure remains in charge for the weekend – centred over the south of England.

Generally showery with some occasional sunshine, showers potentially heavy with a small chance of sleet/wet snow mixed into the heaviest. Less showers later in the day. I think some uncertainty over exact details – so don’t be too surprised if few showers – or the opposite, more general rain. Around 6’C – breezy and chilly. Mostly clear skies overnight, frosty for all – down to around -2’C, mist/fog patches in some places.

Sunday should be fairer. Early mist/fog patches lift into sunny spells and fair weather cloud. Small chance of light showers, but more likely you’ll stay dry. Around 8’C or so. Clear skies with a frost likely overnight, down to around -2’C, mist/fog patches forming in places too.

There is one model showing a spell of rain/sleet/snow instead on Sunday – it seems so far out of range of likely outcomes that I should dismiss it – all other models keep this area in the North Sea, way to our east. Worth keeping an eye on anyway.

Monday sees early mist/fog patches clear to sunny spells, becoming increasingly hazy as the afternoon goes on. Perhaps a light shower, but otherwise dry until rain in the evening. Around 10’C and becoming breezy. Rain spreading across in the evening and first part of the night, clear spells follow, down to around 4’C.

Not especially high confidence on the details, but broadly Tuesday looks a reasonable day, with sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and some scattered showers. Temperatures around 10’C. Frost/fog possible overnight.

By Wednesday we see high pressure over Scandinavia continuing to develop, and spread its influence our way.

Likely on the mild side for Wednesday, in a more southerly-ish flow, up to around 12’C. More likely dry, perhaps with some sunshine, though confidence in details not especially high. Frost/fog possible overnight.

Where we go from there for late next week and into next weekend is broadly outlined, but details are still to be determined, and will depend on the shape and location of the Scandinavian high pressure.

We could end up with a more south-easterly flow, probably on the milder side, say 10’C to 12’C, though with a trend away from drier sunnier conditions to cloudier and wetter conditions as low pressure systems try to spread up from the south-west.

Or we end up more easterly, a colder flow, temperatures between 4’C and 7’C, with cold winds and perhaps wintry showers.

The milder south-easterly outcome seems more likely for late next week and into next weekend, though perhaps colder easterly is more likely after that.

I shall try to write the spring forecast this weekend. Keep your expectations low.

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