Friday 19th May 2023

Gradually the weather is improving – some sunshine, some relative warmth – but also some cloud and some showers in the forecast too.

Thanks to Eve for the photograph, and for those e-mailing them to whilst Facebook is being a pain. And maybe I fixed the mailing list, for those subscribed through the website – it works for me, so if it works for you please give me a sign!

Starting with the general picture which sees high pressure to the east, low pressure over Europe to the south/south-east which will just take the edge off things in south-east England this weekend. Though the main story is high pressure to the west/south-west, which will have more influence as next week goes on.

Today we are dealing with a weak weather front which will bring a lot of mid-level cloud, though bright with some hazy sunshine. Light showers possible in the morning, a few scattered heavy showers in the afternoon – though more likely the further west you go, and perhaps we escape them here. More sunshine later in the afternoon and into the evening. Temperatures nothing amazing, 16’C, maybe 17’C. Some clear spells overnight, some cloud at times, down to around 6’C.

Some cloud possible at first on Saturday but it will clear away swiftly (yeah I said this last week), to leave good spells of sunshine. Again some cloud bubbling up through lunchtime and early afternoon – a small chance of a shower, but still sunny spells – and more sunshine as the afternoon goes on. Quite warm, 18’C, maybe 19’C. Mostly clear skies, down to around 6’C.

Sunday should start sunny, but it looks like low cloud will develop to bring a mostly cloudy day once it sets in. However, there is a little bit of uncertainty on this, I wouldn’t rule out some sunshine. Temperatures around 17’C, though with a bit of sunshine then 20’C possible. Quite a bit of cloud overnight, around 8’C.

Monday sees the continental low pressure edge closer – as close as it will get, but mostly it should be fairly sunny, with some cloud at times, and just a small chance of a shower. A little uncertainty – perhaps it is cloudier, just depends on the exact positioning of the low pressure. On the warm side, 18’C to 20’C, perhaps a little more. Dry overnight, though cloud amounts uncertain, around 9’C.

By Tuesday, we start to see the Azores High nudge in from the west.

Likely quite a lot of cloud around, but some sunny spells particularly early and late in the day. Around 18’C, give or take – if sunnier, then 20’C or more possible.

Wednesday again sees quite a bit of cloud bubbling up, but sunny early and late in the day, and probably overall a bit less cloud than Tuesday. 18’C to 20’C.

Thursday likely sees high pressure centred a bit closer to the UK, so hopefully more in the way of sunshine, but likely still cloud at times. Temperatures more likely in the range of 17’C to 20’C.

More of the same for Friday, uncertain on cloud amounts, but dry and settled, temperatures in the range of 16’C to 20’C depending on cloud amounts – with anything from mostly cloudy to mostly sunny being possible at this stage.

The bank holiday weekend most likely will be dry and settled. Temperatures will depend on sunshine amounts, which will depend on the exact position of the high pressure system, which should be centred roughly over central/northern parts of the UK, maybe a bit to the east, maybe a bit to the west.

Such a set-up can lead to cooler and cloudy days, but more likely we’ll see a mostly warm and mostly sunny bank holiday weekend. You can be hopeful, for sure. There is a small chance of very warm – but that would also come with a chance of an afternoon downpour.

It is far enough away for things to change, but I have higher confidence than I usually would this far away.

Likewise high pressure should be in control going into June, but will tend to shift north for a while – allowing showers to push up from the south, perhaps thundery.

I still expect June to average out warmer, drier and sunnier than normal – but the shower risk I previously forecasted for the latter part of May, now looks more likely for the first half of June – and then more likely it settles down, with an increasing chance of very warm/hot spells as June goes on.

It almost feels like I’m forecasting some summer!

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