Friday 19th April 2024

A cool week ahead with notably below-average temperatures – nothing outright wet, and often dry but some showers around.

Photograph is from me this week as I cannot seem to access my Facebook messages – at least the trains here do go to Reading.

The general picture sees high pressure in charge, a rare feat in recent months, but it is to our west so we have a cooler north-westerly flow.

A fairly cloudy day for today, a weak weather front may bring a little light/moderate patchy rain during the morning, then a cluster of showers will spread down early/mid afternoon which could be quite heavy – though also more in the way of sunshine this afternoon too. We should squeeze 14’C around lunchtime, but cooler in afternoon showers – and quite windy too later. Mostly clear skies overnight and a chilly night, down to around 2’C – a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Saturday starts sunny. Plenty of cloud will build from mid-morning onwards, though there will still be some bright/sunny spells at times – though likely we are on the cloudier side of the spectrum overall. Around 12’C in a cool northerly breeze. Quite cloudy overnight though some clear spells, down to around 4’C.

Sunday looks on the cloudy side for much of the day, some brightness at times, but also some light rain/drizzle possible at times. During the afternoon it looks like the cloud will edge west to leave a sunnier finish – though timing uncertain. Around 11’C. Clear skies likely overnight, and assuming so then down to around 0’C with a frost.

Monday starts cold but sunny. Cloud then spreads south with patchy light rain for the rest of the day. Maximum temperatures will depend on how long it stays sunny for – 12’C at best, but if the cloud arrives by mid-morning then maybe only reaching 7’C or so. Yuck. Staying mostly cloudy with patchy light rain/drizzle overnight, around 6’C.

No real change by Tuesday – high pressure remains to our west, and we stay in this cool northerly flow.

Most likely Tuesday will be rather cloudy, some brightness, some showers too. Reaching around 11’C.

Wednesday most likely stays on the cloudier side of the spectrum, some sunny spells possible, light showers possible though less likely than on Tuesday. Around 12’C.

Thursday is a while away, but more likely we stay on the cool side, sunshine and showers currently the more likely outcome.

Changes probably afoot for Friday and into next weekend, but not exactly joyful ones – low pressure returning so showers becoming heavier and more frequent, a longer spell of rain possible – but we might draw in some warmer air too, say around 15’C, maybe 18’C by Sunday.

Not especially high confidence yet, this signal for low pressure dropping down and sucking up warmer air is pretty new – until two days ago I was working on the assumption that this cool, cloudy weather would continue well into May.

However, it would still make sense with this broad-scale pattern of high pressure more likely further north – and after a short warmer and showery spell next weekend (assuming it happens) could then lead us back into cooler, cloudier easterlies come early May.

Blame the sudden stratospheric warming event that happened in March. Maybe I should have an affiliate account for a holiday company?

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