I bring you news of sunshine and warmth. But not so much today.
So the general pattern sees low pressure to our west – bringing weather fronts across today, but helping us to be in a warmer flow in general over the coming days – and, for a change, staying to our west rather than crossing over the UK (at least for now).
Friday starts with heavy, showery rain gradually pushing north-east. Perhaps very heavy with a rumble of thunder, but it will become more showery and gradually fade – so little in the way left of the band of showery rain by lunchtime. Some hazy sunshine in the afternoon and it will be warm, around 23’C, maybe 24’C. During the evening, further showery rain will spread north-east, and there will be some very heavy, perhaps torrential and thundery outbreaks mixed in – though they will be hit and miss, and arguably more likely a little further east of here. But don’t be surprised if there are some notable downpours any time from mid/late evening through to midnight, or just after. Clear spells follow and it will be a warm night, no lower than 17’C and becoming quite windy too.
Saturday sees sunny spells – crazy, huh? There will be plenty of fair-weather cloud bubbling up and a small chance of a shower, but broadly it will be pleasant and warm. 23’C, maybe 24’C – windy too. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.
Sunday sees further sunny spells, with a fair amount of fair-weather cloud bubbling up – sometimes more cloud than sun. An outside chance of a light-ish shower. Warm, 23’C, maybe 24’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though a chance of some mist/fog patches by dawn, or maybe some low cloud. Down to around 13’C.
By Monday, our low pressure system heads north a bit, allowing something warmer up push up from the south – we are close to proper heat, but not quite there.
Any early mist/fog/low cloud will lift during the morning to leave sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. Very warm, 25’C, maybe 26’C. Clear spells for a time overnight, though some mist/fog/low cloud patches forming in places towards dawn.
Tuesday will be another pleasant day once any early mist/fog/low cloud clears. Generally increasing amounts of sunshine, though an isolated afternoon shower cannot be ruled out. Reaching around 26’C or so.
A little uncertainty for Wednesday, mostly over temperatures, but broadly a fair day with sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. Temperatures roughly in the range of 23’C to 28’C – though more likely the lower end of the scale.
Thursday probably sees our most recent low pressure start to head south – yes, in time for the weekend. Not a certainty, but the more likely outcome. So for Thursday, sunny spells and quite a lot of fair-weather cloud, with a 30% chance of a shower or two, and temperatures around 22’C.
For Friday and the rest of the bank holiday weekend, the more likely outcome is that the same low pressure currently to our west, is now sat over the UK having taken a detour to the north of Scotland.
This isn’t a done deal – we could still scrape a pleasant weekend or part of the weekend, but now feels around a 75% chance that low pressure is in charge. And assuming so, it means a showery weekend.
Temperatures currently uncertain – slightly more likely that it is around the 17’C to 20’C range – but plausible that low pressure could establish an easterly – which would be warmer, if still with some heavy showers.
Maybe enjoy the sunshine and warmth this weekend! And the World Cup Final – if you are watching.