Friday 17th May 2024

Some warm sunshine…but also some heavy showers.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

So the general picture sees a slack area of low pressure over western Europe – it’s been around all week and it’s not really going anywhere for now. However, it does allow for a warmer flow.

Reasonably sunny to start Friday, cloud will bubble up from around late morning onwards, a 20% chance of a shower too, but there will still be sunny spells also. Warm, around 21’C. Clear skies at first overnight, but cloud spreading across from the east towards dawn, perhaps some showers too. No lower than around 12’C.

Saturday starts cloudy, perhaps foggy in some places, some showers possible. It will brighten up, timing a bit uncertain, perhaps by lunchtime but likely by late afternoon at the latest, we have decent amounts of sunshine. However, the sunshine will trigger a few heavy, thundery showers – around a 30% chance of catching one later in the afternoon/evening. Reaching around 20’C, maybe 21’C. Heavy, thundery showers remain possible until late evening – still only around a 30-40% chance of catching one. Clear skies otherwise, until mist/fog/low cloud develops towards dawn. No lower than 11’C.

Sunday sees early mist/fog/low cloud lifting into good spells of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud bubbling up but mostly a rather sunny day. On a Sunday too, how delightful! Warm, around 22’C – maybe a tad more. Clear skies for much of the night, but again low cloud and some mist/fog patches spreading in from the North Sea in the latter part of the night. Down to around 9’C.

Monday starts with mist/fog/low cloud. This will break up, a bit slower than the last two days but from around mid-morning onwards there will be plenty of sunshine, and some fair-weather cloud. A 10% chance of a shower. Still on the warm side, around 21’C. Cloud likely moves in from the east again later in the night, clear skies before, down to around 9’C.

Little change synoptically by Tuesday – the slack area of low pressure over western Europe edges a bit further north, and increases our chance of showers once more.

More uncertainty by this point, but Tuesday is more likely along the sunny spells and scattered heavy showers theme – and still on the warm side, broadly around 20’C.

Suggestions that by Wednesday, the low pressure starts developing more – fed by warmth over central/eastern Europe. Certainly this would lead to very wet conditions over Germany, Belgium, etc – possible it gets this far west, but uncertain at this stage. If not, then sunny spells and heavy showers would be more likely instead.

Things get more complicated by Thursday with high pressure trying to push in from the west, and the German low pressure system trying to push further towards us from the east.

Slightly more likely I think the low pressure system will be around, so cloud and rain at times on Thursday, though trending drier through Friday. Not especially high confidence though.

And for the bank holiday weekend?

Highly uncertain.

However the very slight favourite outcome would be for high pressure to be over the UK, or close enough, with good spells of warm sunshine.

Say maybe 35% chance dry, warm and sunny all weekend, 25% chance warm with heavy showers, 25% chance mixed – some sunny days, some wet days, 10% chance washout, 5% chance heatwave. Something broadly along those splits.

Probably a return to heavy showers after the bank holiday weekend.

Enjoy the weekend…and the sunshine…at times!

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