Friday 17th December 2021

A couple more boring, cloudy days before it becomes much more interesting. So interesting that there is a chance, I stress the word chance, of a White Christmas.

I left you last time by stating that Christmas Day would be most likely cool or cold, but dry. But there was a small chance of colder weather moving in from the east or a small chance of something mildish by Christmas Day.

Well, both are probably going to be kind of true. Colder air will filter down next week from the north-east, and it looks like over the Christmas period (24th to 26th ish), some low pressure systems will cross the UK from the north-west or west – the boundary zone where this rain hits the cold air, will likely turn to snow.

Where the boundary is…well…you can read on but I don’t know yet. And won’t know until…hmmm…Tuesday I guess? The boundary could be Scotland, it could be the north, or midlands, or us…or even France. North of the boundary would be dry, cold with a chance of a wintry shower, south of the boundary would be wet, possibly very wet.

We do have a ticket this year to the White Christmas raffle.

Anyway…thanks to Louise for the cloudy photograph.

Tonight will be cloudy. No surprise there. 7’C. A small chance of mist/fog patches.

Saturday sees high pressure in control, over the UK, though it is just starting to drift north a little.

It will be cloudy and dull all day. I cannot totally rule out a few glimpses of sunshine, but cloudy rules. Around 7’C in a chilly but light breeze. Mostly cloudy overnight, though one or two clear patches could mean mist/fog forms in places. Around 5’C.

Sunday will be cloudy – some mist/fog patches possible in the morning. The breeze shifting to a northerly, and a tad colder at 6’C. Cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of light rain, 4’C.

Monday will be fairly cloudy but there will be some sunny spells at times. The odd spot of light rain possible early morning. 6’C in a chilly, light breeze. Plenty of cloud overnight but some clear spells – probably too much cloud for a frost bar the more rural spots, but a close call – down to around 2’C.

Tuesday actually looks quite sunny. There will likely be some cloud around at times, but more in the way of sunshine than for some time. Alas, it will be a bit colder, say 5’C. Clear skies likely overnight with a notable frost, down to around -3’C. A chance of fog by dawn – kind of uncertain.

Wednesday stays dry – colder air continues to sink south and those low pressure systems in the Atlantic edge closer. But otherwise, it should be mostly sunny, some high cloud in the afternoon, some early fog patches possible – but notably colder, around 3’C. Fog possible at first overnight, frost likely, though probably clouding over as weather fronts approach. Down to around -2’C.

Then from Thursday it gets interesting, as I mentioned in my introduction. It is far too far out for anything other than vagueness, anyone that tries to tell you otherwise knows nothing about weather forecasting.

So there’s a small chance that low pressure actually tracks to our south over the Christmas period, over France, and we’ll just stay dry and cold – likely colder than it has been with significant overnight frosts and struggling above freezing during the day.

But the more likely outcome seems to be that low pressure does make inroads towards the UK, so from Thursday onwards there will be a risk of rain and/or snow at times, for a few days.

It’s really fine margins and considering just 4 days ago I was confident of a dry and cold Christmas, but now I’m fairly confident of low pressure and rain/snow – I think there is a lot of scope for changes still.

So there is a chance of a White Christmas. I’d say around a 15% chance down here. With a 50% chance of seeing some snow at some point between Thursday and Boxing Day.

After that it is roughly 40/60 as to whether we have a short unsettled and mildish spell, or we have a more notable cold spell.

There is certainly a good chance of a notable cold spell either late December or early to mid January.

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