Friday 16th June 2023

Thundery downpours incoming…but still some sunshine and generally very warm/quite hot.

Thanks to Peter for the photograph.

So the general picture sees the jetstream shifting north, as it usually does during the summer months – however it has been much further south than normal, going through the Mediterranean, so shifting north means shifting towards us, for the time being.

The low pressure to our west has been slowly trundling its way towards the UK, and will continue – interacting with the heat building again over Spain/Portugal, for some potential fun and game.

Today remains dry with long spells of sunshine. Some cloud will bubble up in the afternoon, but still with plenty of sunshine. Quite hot, 27’C, maybe a tad more. High cloud spreading across in the evening to make the sunshine hazy, down to around 14’C overnight.

Saturday morning starts fairly cloudy though bright at times – a small cluster of heavy showers looks like they will cross during the morning, you might get some rain, you might not. The afternoon looks brighter with spells of hazy sunshine – I cannot rule out a shower but most likely it will be dry. Only very warm, 24’C, maybe 25’C. Quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud overnight which will stop temperatures dropping much, down to around 16’C so feeling quite warm. Again a small chance of a shower.

Details a bit hazy for Sunday, but generally quite cloudy though with some hazy sunshine at times. The potential in the morning to import some heavy showers from France, perhaps thundery – though more likely we don’t. During the afternoon, heavy, possibly thundery downpours should break out more widely – more likely you get some heavy downpours, than not, but again a chance of escaping them and staying dry. On the flip side, a chance of torrential downpours and localised flooding. 26’C and feeling pretty humid too. Fairly clear skies overnight, once any thundery downpours clear, down to around 15’C.

By Monday we see low pressure ever closer – now to the west of Ireland but struggling to get much further east.

Details uncertain for Monday, certainly a chance of some thundery showers developing, say maybe a 30% chance, but otherwise some sunny spells, some cloud. Temperatures somewhere between 25’C and 27’C and feeling humid. Probably clear spells overnight, though I cannot rule out importing a shower, down to around 14’C.

Details again uncertain for Tuesday. The more likely outcome sees further very warm sunny spells, with some scattered thundery downpours developing – say around a 40% chance of catching one or two. However, there is a small chance of some general thundery rain spreading up from France. Temperatures roughly between 24’C and 27’C and fairly humid.

By Wednesday, our low pressure gives up and heads north towards Iceland, still a chance of a shower but more in the way of sunny spells – some cloud bubbling up. Again very warm and probably somewhat humid, between 24’C and 27’C.

The more likely outcome for Thursday sees good spells of sunshine, and some cloud. I cannot rule out a shower – with low pressure over the continent now, but it should be too far away. Still very warm/quite hot, 25’C to 27’C more likely.

By Friday and into the weekend, we should see high pressure building over the UK once more, and in a favourable position for it to get hot once more. Generally it should be fairly sunny with temperatures in the 28’C to 32’C range.

However – this isn’t certain, just the more likely outcome as it stands. With the jetstream shifting north there is certainly chance of the phasing of low pressure systems being unfavourable to settled conditions, and could bring cloud and rain instead, though more likely it stays to our north-west.

Our long hot summer will continue…every sign that July will be hotter, drier and sunnier than normal too. If August plays ball, it could be the hottest summer ever recorded overall. We shall see.

We’ve already broken 3 date records this June – and for the first time we recorded over 30’C on 13th June – previously the only date in summer months where the UK hadn’t recorded a 30’C+ temperature.

Right, I best go do some work. With a hangover. Oops. Have a good weekend.

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