Friday 15th September 2023

The warmth returns, but low pressure develops too.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

This morning sees long spells of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud will bubble up from around lunchtime, but there will still be some sunny spells – and increasingly so later on. Very warm, 24’C, maybe 25’C. Clear spells for the first half of the night, more cloud later, down to around 12’C.

So for Saturday the general picture is one of low pressure developing, centred to the west of Portugal, which makes for a tricky forecast – low pressure will be edging towards Iceland from North America too, which will be for us next week.

Saturday most likely sees sunny spells, albeit likely hazy sunshine. A small chance of a heavy shower in the afternoon but unlikely as it stands. Very warm, temperatures around 25’C, maybe 26’C. A fairly cloudy and fairly warm night, minimum temperatures around 16’C – some thundery showers will attempt to push north, though how far they get is uncertain – so maybe around a 25% chance of some thunder/rain.

Sunday looks like seeing a band of thundery rain spread north – you may just get a bit of patchy rain, you may get a proper thundery downpour – quite uncertain on details and it will be until the morning. Likely followed by hazy sunshine, and it will be warm and humid, around 22’C. Further thundery downpours possible in the evening and overnight – though hit and miss, you may get nothing or just a bit of rain, you may instead get a couple of notable downpours/thunderstorms. Fairly warm, down to around 16’C.

By Monday the low pressure near Iceland is heading our way, and will scoop up the remnants of the Portuguese thundery low.

A somewhat complicated picture, but broadly speaking sunny spells and showers – though showers likely to come in organised bands, probably heavy at times. Quite windy, perhaps notably gusty in heaviest showers, and temperatures around 20’C. Clear spells overnight though a stray shower possible, around 10’C.

By Tuesday we are in a westerly flow – the Atlantic back in gear. Uncertainty on the track of low pressure systems at this stage, but either sunshine and showers, or cloudy with rain. Quite windy and around 17’C.

Wednesday again sees showers or rain – though a bit warmer, closer to 20’C.

Thursday…showers or rain.

You get the theme, and I need to start work! The Atlantic very much taking over for our first proper autumnal spell with rain or showers most days, and generally quite windy, perhaps strong winds at times.

Good timing for one to go on holiday to Spain! Forecasts should still happen from myself, as long as the wi-fi is decent enough. Enjoy the warm sunshine this weekend whilst you can (if you can).

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