Friday 15th March 2024

Mild and mixed.

Thanks to Chickena for the photograph.

Today starts fairly cloudy with a few scattered showers. Drier for a time with some sunny spells, but more showers developing from around late morning onwards, heavy, perhaps very heavy with a rumble of thunder. It will feel semi-pleasant in the occasional sunny spells though, and reaching around 15’C. Quite windy, particularly in the showers. Clear skies overnight and a chilly night, down to around 2’C – a touch of frost in more sheltered areas by dawn.

For Saturday we have a ridge of high pressure trying to push up from the south, and further weather fronts pushing across from the west.

It starts sunny but cloud will thicken somewhat, with a few splashes of mostly light rain in the afternoon – though at time the cloud likely thin enough for some hazy sunshine too. Around 11’C or so. Showery rain spreading across in the evening and overnight, somewhat erratically – perhaps quite persistent rain for a while overnight. No lower than around 10’C.

Early cloud and perhaps still some rain will clear gradually on Sunday, to sunny spells, some cloud and a few scattered showers. 15’C, maybe 16’C – feeling quite warm. Some clear spells, some cloudy spells overnight.

Some uncertainty on cloud amounts on Monday, but broadly some cloudy spells likely, some sunshine at times – a small chance of a shower. Still on the mild/quite warm side, somewhere between 14’C and 16’C.

A weakening weather front crosses either Monday night or Tuesday morning – so depending on timing, Tuesday will turn into sunny spells and a few scattered showers. Again still on the mild/quite warm side – somewhere between 13’C and 17’C.

From there it is pretty uncertain on the direction, let alone day to day details.

Changeable looks more likely than settled, though there looks to at least be failing attempts at building high pressure over the UK.

Likewise it is uncertain whether we stay in the very mild/quite warm air, or we end up with something more westerly-sourced, around the 10’C to 12’C range. Maybe slight favourite the 10’C to 12’C range.

It’s not particularly surprising that after a major sudden stratospheric warming event the models are struggling to see the way ahead in the short-term, let alone medium-term.

Generally speaking, as we go towards the end of March and beginning of April, high pressure is more likely than not to build further north, so depending on where it builds, we’ll more likely either end up with a chilly/cold easterly/northerly, with the low pressure track over Spain/France latitudes, or we’ll end up wet and possibly chilly with the low pressure track over France/southern UK. A variation between the two also possible.

Always frustrating when I cannot give more detail in the short-term, but I’m not really trusting of the model output right now, so 3-4 days tops is as much as I feel I can offer in reasonable accuracy…I’m not even that confident about Monday or Tuesday’s forecast!

Enjoy your weekend…and the snippets of relative warmth!

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