Friday 15th July 2022

Record-breaking heat is around the corner.

Firstly, I would like to take a moment to appreciate the technological progress which has led to this forecast – the models continually incrementally improve over time, as more data points are added and the models themselves are improved upon.

Two weeks ago, they first suggested 40’C for the UK – I was shocked. I nearly posted here but I try to avoid hype posts – especially considering models do suggest all kinds of crazy weather in the future as they try to work out the solutions.

Yet the model runs kept coming showing these crazy temperatures – I’d never in 15+ years of watching weather models every day, seen 40’C forecast – you could say that in every respect this is unprecedented. We don’t use that word enough nowadays. More runs, more different models – all kept showing this crazy scenario.

And here we are. It kind of reminds me of the Beast From The East, as that was similarly well signalled weeks in advance – in fact, in my summer forecast that I issued at the beginning of June, I mentioned the possibility of “unusually hot weather” for mid-July – and I only glean this from weather models and data.

It really is a “perfect” set-up for extreme heat, from the exceptionally hot air over north Africa, to the unusually warm sea surface temperatures of the Mediterranean, our own sea surface temperatures, low soil moisture levels over Spain/France – if you had to create a background set-up for record-breaking heat, you’d create the current background.

Thanks to Eve for the photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies, temperatures down to around 13’C.

Saturday sees high pressure over the UK – and the low pressure to the west of Portugal/Spain acting as the heat pump, starting to send the heat our way.

Long spells of sunshine all day. A little high cloud but otherwise glorious. Fairly hot, reaching around 28’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 15’C.

Sunday sees long spells of sunshine. A little bit more high cloud but generally pretty glorious. Hot, 30’C, maybe a tad more. A warm night, no lower than 18’C.

Monday sees the exceptionally hot air in place and with long spells of sunshine all day, temperatures easily reaching 35’C – though anything up to 40’C is possible, with 38’C being my current more likely estimate. Scorchio. There is a high chance that the UK temperature record will go – somewhere between Cambridge and South Yorkshire, stretching east into East Anglia is the more likely area.

Overnight looks exceptionally warm – and likely record-breaking for the highest minimum temperature ever – I think the record is 23.1’C – London may well not dip below 26’C, Reading probably having a minimum around 23’C, though perhaps those figures might be higher.

Tuesday is more uncertain as the low from the west of Portugal/Spain will be approaching – and it’s arrival will feature a notable…de-hotting. Yeah not a word, but I cannot use cooling.

Before it arrives, temperatures will shoot up – peaking somewhere between 35’C and 40’C before lowering as the day goes on – depending on the timing of the low pressure system. By evening, it should be notably less hot, still hot – just normal. And there will be some cloud around, perhaps a little rain, perhaps a thundery downpour. Down to around 17’C overnight, the odd shower possible.

Details a little sketchy for Wednesday, but broadly some cloud and a chance of showers in the morning, probably sunnier for the afternoon. Around 25’C, give or take. A delightful 13’C overnight.

By Thursday, we most likely see the Azores High building once more – our summer friend.

Sunny spells, some cloud around, temperatures around 25’C or so.

Friday will be similar, sunny spells, some cloud at times, and roughly around 26’C – give or take a couple. It does look like low pressure will be developing over France and this may be close enough to trigger a shower – though chances still small at this stage.

The more likely outcome for next weekend keeps the weather similar, sunny spells, some cloud, a small chance of a shower and quite hot, say 26’C or so.

I wouldn’t totally rule out something more showery, or something hotter – or indeed less warm.

And that should be the general trend for the rest of July – very warm/quite hot, sunny spells though suggestions that shower chances should increase towards the end of July and to start August. Anything very hot is unlikely, though cannot be ruled out.

I had been expecting a rather mixed August, though with low confidence, and also with high pressure around slightly more often then not.

Now things are trending to drier, hotter and probably sunnier than normal, with high pressure likely to dominate for quite a chunk of the month. Positioning will be key, as always, to sunshine amounts and temperatures – a reload of exceptional heat will be possible with the background set-up that Europe has.

Well, I wish you a good weekend – apologies if you saw my Dall-E Mini reaction of Boris Johnson eating traffic cones earlier on Facebook, it seems it is much easier to post on this page by mistake since Facebook’s “upgrade”, instead of my personal profile. Expect more mistakes at some point.

Next forecast should be Monday evening, assuming I’ve coped ok with the heat!

Good luck.

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