Friday 14th May 2021

More heavy showers. And cooler too.

Sigh. Is there any hope of warmth? Maybe in 10 days or so…but it has been maybe in 10 days or so for a few weeks now. A southerly tracking jetstream such as we have (the jetstream was pretty dormant in winter) is bringing this parade of low pressure troughs, is directed at France and we are on the cooler northern side – and means that until this shifts, we will keep getting low pressure systems.

However, there are suggestions that instead of coming at us (well…France) in a straight line, it should start to become more meridonal (wavy) by next weekend – that does not mean that we will suddenly end up warm and sunny as low pressure has to be somewhere, but it should mean the end to the slow procession of low pressure troughs.

Alas, we might end up in another northerly flow.

Thanks to Tara for the suitably moody photograph.

This evening will be fairly cloudy, still a small chance of a shower. Cloud will thicken overnight with rain arriving around 4am. Down to around 7’C.

Saturday morning will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain – probably nothing especially notable though the odd heavy burst possible. Some sunny spells follow but with widespread heavy showers, thunder, hail and torrential downpours possible. 16’C at a push. Heavy showers will fade in the evening, variable cloud overnight with a small chance of a stray shower, down to around 7’C.

Sunday sees our next low pressure trough over the UK.

Heavy showers pushing in from the south-west not long after dawn, sometimes merging into longer spells of heavy rain – other times a bit of sunshine. Torrential downpours, thunder and perhaps hail all in the mix. Cannot wait for my outdoor roast dinner. Cooler at 13’C. Showers slowly fading in the evening, variable cloud overnight with a small chance of a stray shower, down to around 5’C.

Surprisingly indoor dining Monday doesn’t greet us with a heatwave. Instead, it is more of the same, plenty of heavy showers developing, thunder possible – arguably a tad more sunshine and a few less showers, but not really much difference from Sunday. 15’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 5’C.

Tuesday similar though most likely there will be fewer showers and a bit more sunshine, but still a fair scattering of showers and they could be heavy. There is a small chance of general showery rain spreading across from the west – but only a small chance. Around 15’C, maybe a tad more. Clear spells overnight, down to around 7’C.

Wednesday sees our low pressure trough move east so it settles down a tad. Sunny spells, still a few showers around but not guaranteed to catch one and they should not be so heavy either. 15’C. Clear at first overnight but cloud thickening later – rain possible later.

Thursday sees the next low pressure system arrive on the scene. Yay.

Details a tad vague at this stage, but rain likely at some point with strong winds. It does look like it may also drag up some warmer air, so if we get some sunshine before/after the rain, then 16’C to 18’C possible.

There is a small chance this low pressure system could track further north and bring us a warm day with hazy sunshine – 10% chance at most.

Friday likely sees further heavy showers, thunder possible – with the chance of some general showery rain in the mix too. Somewhere around 14’C, give or take, with strong winds possible too.

Not certain yet, but next weekend looks more likely to see another northerly plunge, but with high pressure starting to build from the west. Which means some sunny spells, some heavy showers though less than earlier in the week, and temperatures somewhere between 11’C and 14’C – feeling rather chilly in the northerly wind too.

However, there is a small chance that we can get the same kind of scenario but without the northerly being so potent, and high pressure building in from the west more substantially, bringing something a bit warmer, say around 16’C to 18’C with some sunshine. Around a 20% chance – the colder outcome is more likely.

High pressure should feature more the week after, though the positioning could be anywhere – so temperatures could be anywhere from a chilly 10’C to 12’C, to a fairly warm 18’C to 20’C. I wouldn’t expect a dry week, but drier than the previous week or two.

Don’t shoot the messenger, though obviously I was forecasting a warm May until around two weeks before May started – at which point I was forecasting a warm second half of May.

Yes, I am still forecasting a warmer, drier and sunnier than normal June. Though, as you may understand, I’m now rather wary.

I wish you a good weekend.

Not sure when the next forecast will be. I’ve decided that it is too warm and sunny down here, so am going to the Lake District for a week. I guess I’ll write one either Tuesday or Wednesday at some point. Maybe I’ll have good news. Maybe.

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