Friday 14th June 2024

Low pressure is back…expect showers. Summer this ain’t…though improvements possible as next week goes on (though high uncertainty).

Thanks to Lene for the photograph.

We start with low pressure arriving into the UK in time for the weekend.

Friday starts fairly cloudy with some occasional sunny spells – heavy showers will quickly develop, and most places will likely see multiple heavy showers, thunder possible. Just about getting to 18’C and breezy, especially so in showers. Showers probably fade in the evening for a time, though another cluster will move through around late evening into the early hours. Some clear spells to finish the night, down to around 8’C.

A band of cloud and showers moves through early on Saturday morning, followed by limited sunny spells and further heavy showers, perhaps with a rumble of thunder. 18’C at best and quite windy at times. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight – and a chance of a shower or two. Down to around 11’C.

Low pressure still in charge for Sunday, but the focus for showers away from us. Still plenty of cloud, but more in the way of sunny spells than there has been, and fewer showers – still likely catching one or two during the day, which could be heavy. Around 19’C. Reasonably clear overnight, though a chance of a shower by dawn.

Quite a bit of uncertainty on details for Monday, as by this point the low pressure has likely split into two systems, with the second system heading to northern France.

This should allow slightly warmer air to creep up from the continent, say 20’C to 22’C more likely, and also more likely we see a mixture of sunny spells and showers. Quite how many showers is uncertain – anywhere from mostly dry to mostly showery, and will depend on exactly what happens when the original low pressure splits.

Tuesday is again also uncertain due to this low over northern France – arguably more likely it is close enough to the UK to at least make it mostly cloudy with some showers, but it could easily be far enough away for a pleasant and warm day, with hazy sunshine.

Wednesday also remains uncertain. The slightly more likely outcome sees a ridge of high pressure build in from the west, bringing a drier and pleasant day – but other options also include a return of the northerlies (yuck) or the French low pressure bringing a spell of very heavy, thundery rain (much warmer and humid too).

For late next weekend and into next weekend…well you won’t be too surprised to hear me say that it is uncertain. However, we can have reasonable confidence on it being warmer, say 22’C to 25’C the more likely range.

High pressure should also be trying to build from the south-west, but that will be battling a stronger jetstream to our north-west, and also this thundery low over France. It’s a complicated picture – you can certainly hope for some drier, sunnier days late next week and into next weekend, but keep expectations moderated…a thundery washout, or a weekend like this one both remain very possible, and would a mixture of the regimes.

There are hints of high pressure being more in control for the last week of June, so sunnier, drier and warmer/hotter conditions more likely, though not especially high confidence yet.

Enjoy your weekend.

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