Friday 14th April 2023

Today is the last of the unsettled days for a while, as high pressure then takes over. But will it warm up?

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Today will be mostly cloudy as a weak area of low pressure splits into two over the UK – occasional bits of rain is the theme, mostly light or moderate rain, though the odd heavy burst possible. The cloud thin enough at times to see some hazy sunshine. Pretty chilly for the time of year, 10’C at best and breezy at times too. The rain becoming more persistent and probably fairly heavy in the evening – this persistent rain clearing east late evening, but remaining cloudy overnight with a bit of occasional light rain still likely. Down to around 5’C.

High pressure starts to build on Saturday, though we’ll start the day cloudy, perhaps the odd spot of light rain. The sun will gradually come out, probably around lunchtime though some uncertain on timing – if enough sunshine then a few scattered showers will break out, possibly heavy, say around a 50% chance of catching one or two. 13’C, maybe 14’C. Clear skies at first overnight though cloud gradually thickening somewhat from the west as a very weak weather front approaches – down to around 4’C.

By Sunday, we see high pressure fairly well established over the UK – our earlier low pressure trough towards Italy now.

However, the overnight weak weather front will still be around, so there will be quite a bit of cloud, with hazy sunshine the theme. Reaching around 14’C. Some clear spells overnight, though a chance of mist/fog or low cloud towards dawn, down to around 3’C.

Monday sees early mist/fog or low cloud. This will lift to allow sunshine during the morning, though likely a lot of cloud bubbling up through lunchtime into the afternoon – with increasing sunshine again as the afternoon goes on. Around 15’C. More likely clear skies overnight, though uncertain – assuming so, down to around 4’C. Mist/fog patches possible by dawn.

By Tuesday, we’ll have picked up an easterly – but the continent hasn’t warmed up enough yet.

We should see decent sunny spells, some cloud but a pleasant day – however the easterly breeze will make it feel cooler, say somewhere between 12’C and 14’C.

Wednesday is uncertain on cloud amounts, though more likely on the cloudier side of things, in the easterly breeze. Temperatures more likely in the range of 11’C to 13’C.

That’s about as far as I can go with any confidence at the moment.

There are suggestions that low pressure slowly tries to approach from the west towards the end of next week – how this approaches will be key in the weather for late next week, and it is certainly plausible that it could induce a warm southerly flow for a few days – likewise though maybe low pressure crosses France or southern England and it stays cooler.

I guess you could summarise Thursday and into next weekend as more likely mostly dry, with an increasing chance of some showers. A greater range of possible temperatures through the period – the cool easterly could continue, or a warm southerly could take over – at least they are the two more likely outcomes.

Hints of something more showery towards the end of April/beginning of May…but can we squeeze a short warm spell before?

Too many questions for now. Next forecast probably Tuesday morning. Enjoy the weekend.

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