Staying fairly unsettled, though the pattern is changing to something colder – the jetstream will shift on Sunday to come from a more north-westerly direction – instead of a more south-westerly/westerly direction of late.
And there will be much less rain after Saturday – though still some showers around and they could fall as sleet or snow.
Thanks to Jessica for the photograph.
Not too bad a day today, sunny spells, some bits of cloud floating around – a small chance of a light/moderate shower. Quite windy, 9’C. Clouding over in the evening as the next area of low pressure moves in – with outbreaks of rain from roughly around midnight onwards, some heavy. Windy, particularly so by dawn, low’s of 5’C before the rain arrives, around 10’C by dawn.
Saturday sees low pressure in charge, but with colder air ready to spread down from the north-west.
It will start wet and windy, with some fairly heavy heavy and strong gusts of wind. Gradually during the morning the rain will become patchier and lighter, and by the afternoon we’ll see sunny spells. 12’C during the morning but notably cooler as the afternoon goes on. Clear spells overnight and variable cloud – cold but too windy for a frost, down to around 3’C.
Sunday looks fairly sunny, though some cloud at times, and also the odd scattered shower – difficult to be sure on where showers will be at this stage, so consider it around a 30% chance of a couple of showers – they should be of rain, but a wintry touch not impossible. Cold, breezy and around 6’C. Suggestions that an area of heavy showers will form and cross either evening or overnight on Sunday, but highly uncertain right now – it may not develop or it may develop but be further south than us. If this occurred, it could have a wintry back edge. Temperatures roughly down to around 2’C overnight, but very approximate.
Monday is more likely cold and sunny, with a small chance of a wintry shower – though there is some uncertainty due to Sunday evening’s possible developing system. Around 4’C. A frost likely overnight, with temperatures down to somewhere between -1’C and -5’C. Wintry showers not impossible.
Tuesday is cold with low pressure in control.
Sunny spells likely, wintry showers possible, temperatures around 3’C at best. A small chance of a general area of wintry precipitation instead – though this now looks more likely to head to France. Most likely clear spells with a frost overnight, down to around -2’C to -4’C.
Wednesday remains pretty much the sane, sunny spells likely, wintry showers possible and reaching around 3’C. Clear spells overnight, a small chance of a snow shower, down to around -3’C with a widespread frost.
Thursday should be the last day of the northerly. Sunny spells probable, some cloud at times, a small chance of a shower but most likely of rain by this point. 4’C, maybe 5’C but a cold northerly breeze picking up. Probably another frost overnight, down to around -2’C – though a weather front should be arriving from the west towards dawn, but timing uncertain as it is a week away.
Friday should see a weather front crossing with outbreaks of rain, perhaps preceded briefly with some sleet/wet snow. Around 6’C, give or take.
The more likely outcome for next weekend and into the week after is for high pressure to build over the UK, or very close to, which will mean mostly dry weather bar the odd weaker weather front – perhaps fog, perhaps frost. Uncertain at this stage as to whether it means a milder/average or a colder air mass.
My general thinking for February is unsettled first half, settled second half, though fairly low confidence right now, unless a sudden stratospheric warming event occurs.
Still no higher than a small chance of a sudden stratospheric warming event in early February – so I’d extrapolate from that no higher than a 10-15% chance of a “Beast From The East” type event mid-late February. I’m happy to discount the chances and look forward to some pleasant warmth in early spring instead.
Have a good weekend.