Fairly mixed weather ahead, but less rain and a bit more warmth next week.

Thanks to Lene for the photograph.

So the general picture sees low pressure just over the road in France/Belgium, with high pressure close to our west/north-west (and heatwave conditions over SE Europe…far, far away!).

Friday starts cloudy due to the low pressure in the continent – there may be a bit of rain at times this morning, though the main rain is to our south-east and will stay there. The afternoon will be generally dry and fairly cloudy, a bit of brightness at times, the odd spot of rain possible too – a small chance of a heavier shower. Around 18’C. The evening and overnight remain mostly cloudy, a bit of patchy rain likely at times, mostly from late evening onwards – though the main rain area will remain to our east. Down to around 12’C.

Saturday starts mostly cloudy, a bit of brightness possible. One or two scattered showers during the morning, a bit more sunshine as the afternoon goes on, but showers will also become heavier and more frequent – you may miss them all, but around 70% chance you’ll get at least a couple of showers. Around 19’C at best. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Sunday starts sunny! Cloud will quickly bubble up and it will be mostly cloudy from mid-morning onwards, one or two scattered showers too. But again from mid-afternoon onwards it should brighten up with some sunny spells. Warmer, around 21’C. Clear spells at first overnight though clouding over somewhat as the night goes on, around 14’C.

Monday sees the next area of low pressure move in – a fairly weak affair but sufficient to at least bring some heavy showers, perhaps with thunder – and a lower chance of a spell of general rain. Still on the warm side, around 21’C, maybe a tad more. Scattered heavy showers still possible in the evening/overnight, around 15’C.

Tuesday is pretty similar – sunny spells and scattered heavy showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, though some places will miss the showers – say around a 60% of catching a couple during the day. On the warm side, around 22’C or so. Clear skies overnight, around 12’C.

Likely more cloud by Wednesday, making the sunshine hazy at best, though also some warmer air around, say between 22’C and 24’C, and likely it stays dry.

Uncertain thereafter, though slightly more likely Thursday and Friday are very warm instead of warm, probably dry though I wouldn’t want to promise it! Next weekend perhaps more likely back to showery, though very low confidence.

The jetstream hasn’t shifted north, and until it does we’ll remain at risk of further spells of unsettled weather. There are hints it may do this towards the end of July and/or into August, which would allow something more settled – though hoping for settled spells longer than a week seems ambitious.

There are no signals for an extended spell of high pressure, just hints it may improve somewhat. Of course, things can change upstream, perhaps a hurricane may curve into the Atlantic and shift the jetstream further north, as can happen.

Time to book another holiday, I guess! Enjoy the weekend, at least it isn’t a total washout.