Friday 11th August 2023

A new weekend, a new low pressure system, but more a case of sunshine and showers. And perhaps there might be something hot around the corner…

Thanks to Pauline for the photograph.

Friday starts cloudy as a weak weather front pushes away our brief bit of summer. The cloud will break at times and generally the afternoon will be sunnier, though still possibly cloudy at times, and a moderate chance of a shower, say a 30% chance. Still very warm, 24’C, maybe 25’C and becoming breezy. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.

Saturday sees our next low pressure system arrived, though crossing further north this time, over Scotland.

Plenty of cloud on Saturday but some sunny spells also, and a fair scattering of showers – some heavy, perhaps a rumble of thunder. Around an 80% chance of catching at least a couple of showers. Around 22’C and notably breezy. Showers quickly fading in the evening, then dry overnight though fairly cloudy. Down to around 14’C.

Fewer showers on Sunday, say a 30% chance of catching one or two, but plenty of fair-weather cloudy and also some high cloud making the sunny spells hazy at times. Warm, 23’C. Some uncertainty on details overnight, but it looks like an area of showery rain will develop and spread north-east in the latter part of the night. Around 16’C.

The uncertainty continues into Monday, but more likely it is cloudy with some showery rain – perhaps heavy at times. It probably clears into sunny spells at some point in the afternoon – though uncertain. Assuming it clears to sunny spells, then we’ll reach around 22’C, otherwise 18’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

There’s nothing really driving our weather at this point – the jetstream has really faded, and there are no particularly notable areas of high or low pressure close by.

Tuesday looks reasonable, a fair amount of cloud bubbling up, some sunny spells, a 30% or so chance of a shower. Warm, around 23’C. Likely clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Wednesday starts sunny, a fair amount of fair-weather cloud bubbling up for the middle part of the day, then sunshine increasing later. Very warm, around 24’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

By Thursday we start to see high pressure strengthen to our east/north-east, with some low pressure to our west.

Still some fair-weather cloud bubbling up, but plenty of sunshine and very warm, reaching around 25’C or so – maybe a tad more.

By Friday and into next weekend, the more likely outcome is that we start to draw winds from the south/south-east – and it becomes hot. Not a done deal, certainly plausible that low pressure is over the UK rather than to our west – but reasonably high confidence for a week away. Call it a 75% chance of becoming hot.

This will mean temperatures into the high 20’s – perhaps low 30’s with perfect alignment, and good spells of sunshine – though also there will be a risk of thundery downpours at some point during the weekend. Expect warm nights too, and some humidity.

The next week could start hot, and more likely stays warm or very warm – but also more likely changeable, some sunny days, but also some showery/wet days very possible, perhaps with thundery downpours.

Weak signals that the end of August and beginning of September return to something more unsettled.

Have a good weekend – hopefully there’s at least some joy there for those who miss the summer (as I do…bar the wasps).

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