Friday 10th May 2024

3 days of summer then back to unsettled. Just about 3 days anyway…Sunday is a bit of a close call.

Thanks to Jo for the photograph.

It has been reassuring that this warm and sunny spell was forecasted a good 7-10 days in advance with fair confidence, likewise the return to unsettled for next week.

We continue with high pressure in charge – in a good position for both sunshine and warmth too.

Broadly speaking, today will be sunny though with some high cloud making it a tad hazy at times, also some general patches of cloud developing for a time early/mid-afternoon. Very warm, we should squeeze 24’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though a chance of some mist/fog/low cloud by dawn, down to around 9’C.

Saturday sees any early mist/fog/low cloud lift, leaving long spells of sunshine, though again some high cloud around making it a little hazy at times, and some fair-weather cloud likely bubbling up early/mid afternoon. Very warm, 24’C, maybe 25’C. High/mid-level cloud becoming more extensive overnight, with milder temperatures, around 13’C.

Sunday starts with quite a bit of cloud, though still hazy sunshine. This should break up to allow more in the way of sunshine/hazy sunshine for the rest of the day, though with some cloud bubbling up and a 20% chance of a heavy shower. Some uncertain on where showers will develop (they will) – but for now I think not so likely around here. Just be aware there is a risk of a downpour. I can use the h-word for the first time this year, likely quite hot, around 25’C to 26’C, perhaps 27’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Monday starts bright with hazy sunshine, but gradually clouds over as rain spreads in from the west. Some uncertainty as to when the rain arrives, I’d suggest midday to 3pm as an approximate start time, likely heavy at times, and lasting well into the evening, perhaps even into the night. Warm to start, say 18’C though very approximate, cooler as the day goes on and rain sets in.

By Tuesday we see low pressure sat over Ireland and the west of the UK – with high pressure to our east stopping it going far. Normality resumed.

Sunny spells and showers, breezy too. Showers possibly on the heavy side, though uncertain at this stage. Breezy and temperatures somewhere between 15’C and 17’C, give or take.

Similar story for Wednesday and Thursday, sunny spells and showers, showers likely heavy and possibly thundery. Temperatures broadly in the range of 14’C to 18’C, though Thursday the cooler of the two days more likely.

Low pressure will be a weaker affair for Friday and into next weekend, but with the strong sun at this time of the year, it will still generate plenty of heavy showers, possibly thundery – and there is a chance they could merge into longer spells of heavy rain at times.

That said, positioning of the low pressure will be key to shower distribution, and this is still uncertain for next weekend so you may get some time with fewer showers, more sunshine and it could be reasonably pleasant at times, temperatures more likely in the range of 16’C to 18’C.

Very tentative signs of high pressure building in the latter part of the month, maybe in time for the bank holiday weekend, maybe not.

Further ahead into June and July, signals are fairly weak (not exactly unusual) but broadly I’d suggest a fair mixture of weather, some pleasant spells with warm sunshine, but also showery spells too. If anything, there is a suggestion of later in the summer being drier/sunnier/hotter than earlier in the summer – which is a reversal of patterns in recent years. Not sure I can remember the last year where August was the best summer month…not saying it will be this year, but some early indications are hinting at this.

Enjoy the sunshine and warmth…do make the most of it!

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