Extreme Heat Is Coming

I’m sure you’ve seen from other sources, and I’ve long been suggesting this is possible, but it looks pretty certain now that extreme heat will arrive for Monday, temperatures widely around 36’C to 39’C – the UK maximum recorded temperature should be broken somewhere, and many places, even up north, will see their own city-records broken.

Likewise, we should also record the UK’s highest even overnight minimum temperature somewhere.

Tuesday should be as hot, perhaps hotter. 40’C could be recorded somewhere in the UK.

It is now more likely that we break the record temperature than not, and I’d argue that 40’C is about as likely to happen as not – a 50/50 chance, though probably not widespread.

There remains a lower chance of something less hot, say peaking around 36’C.

The breakdown most likely arrives Tuesday night or early Wednesday, though there is a chance that it could arrive during the day on Tuesday and temperatures reduce somewhat during the afternoon.

Don’t expect too much rain, if any, from the breakdown. A small chance of thunderstorms, but most likely we just go back to normal levels of hot sunshine, like today.

Full update tomorrow…must dash…work to do. My previous forecast from Monday still stands otherwise.

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