Monday 15th April 2024

Cool and showery to start the week, but becoming drier and…somewhat warmer?

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Today starts cloudy as a weather front spreads south-east, bringing some showery rain, likely heavy/very heavy for a short spell before it clears mid-morning. Sunny spells and scattered showers follow, some heavy, a small chance of hail/thunder too. Winds fairly strong but notably gusty in showers. 11’C at best. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, a stray shower still possible and remaining windy – down to 6’C or so.

The general picture for Tuesday sees our low pressure slide into the continent, with high pressure trying to build in from the west.

Plenty of cloud in the morning and some showers – showers likely continue all day, more likely you get at least a couple but maybe you’ll miss them. Gradually sunshine amounts will increase in the afternoon. Still in the cool northerly wind, 12’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, though a weak feature will bring some more cloud and a chance of a shower during the early hours, before reverting to clear skies. Down to around 3’C.

Wednesday starts sunny, but cloud will fairly quickly build up with more cloud than sunshine overall, and some showers likely break out. Some uncertainty on the extent and intensity of showers, but more likely getting at least a couple of showers and they could be heavy. On the cool side again, around 10’C, maybe 11’C but at least the northerly wind now more a breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight – down to around 2’C with a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Thursday starts sunny but again cloud will build from around mid-morning, and it will be on the cloudier side of the spectrum for the rest of the day – though some bright/sunny spells. Remaining dry though, and around 12’C. A weather front spreads south overnight bringing some mostly light rain/drizzle. Down to around 7’C.

Friday looks fairly cloudy – some brightness at times, but also some showers possible. Temperatures ticking up a little, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Cloud tending to clear overnight to clear spells – down to around 4’C.

For the weekend, high pressure continues to try to nudge in from the west.

It’s still uncertain as to whether it gets far enough east to cut off the cooler northerly flow – very fine margins between 10’C and 15’C in this set-up. Either way, still probably quite a lot of cloud, some sunny spells, and probably dry. Likely chilly overnight.

Likewise for Sunday, though the difference between the two equally possible outcomes is starker – and still very fine margins.

In the scenario where high pressure doesn’t quite get far enough across, cloudier, perhaps a shower and around 12’C. In the scenario where it does, sunny and 20’C.

At the moment it’s a coin toss between the outcomes – the model I trust more is going for the cooler solution, and has been pretty consistent – but my head says it is undoing the progress of high pressure from the west and the warmer solution is perhaps more likely. So put both judgements together and therefore I make it 50/50.

Next week does look more likely to see more cooler flows – dry more likely than wet, cloudy more likely than sunny, with high pressure close to our north – not a friendly position for those looking for some spring warmth (do I need to book another holiday?!), but at least likely dry.

Next forecast on Friday morning.…

Friday 12th April 2024

Briefly some warmth, but then notably cooler for next week. Less rain than there has been.

Thanks to Jo for the photograph.

So the general picture for today sees high pressure in control over France, Spain and into central Europe – and just nudging into the south of the UK.

It’s a warm set-up with the flow of air from Africa, but there will be plenty of high cloud around, making the sunshine often, if not always, hazy. Reaching 19’C, maybe 20’C. High cloud overnight, down to around 9’C.

For Saturday we just about stay in the warmer air, again hazy sunshine all day with the cloud thickening in the afternoon as a weak weather front approaches. Reaching around 19’C – not bad at all. The weak weather front crosses early evening, bringing cloud and the odd spot of rain. Mostly clear skies overnight and down to around 6’C.

Hazy sunshine for Sunday morning, cloud thickening for the afternoon but staying dry. We’ll have lost the warmer air – reaching around 13’C in a westerly breeze. Clear spells but becoming windy overnight, down to around 5’C. Showers possible before dawn.

Time for change on Monday as low pressure moves down from the north-west.

Heavy showers or heavy showery rain moves south-east during the morning, pretty much from dawn, give or take. Sunshine and showers following for the afternoon. Reaching around 11’C but feeling colder in the strong winds – notably gusty at times. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, down to around 3’C.

Tuesday remains in the cool flow – some uncertainty over where low pressure will be centred and hence the frequency of showers – it may be a case of frequent heavy showers, occasional showers or no showers. Generally fairly cloudy though some sunny spells. Reaching around 12’C. Another chilly night likely, down to around 4’C.

If anything Wednesday looks colder, with temperatures around 9’C in a more northerly flow. Uncertainty on conditions – whether it be something drier, or more showery. Overnight frost possible if a lack of cloud cover.

Into Thursday and Friday, more likely high pressure builds from the west. Uncertain on details, though more likely on the cooler side of the spectrum, say 9’C to 12’C, also more likely on the cloudier side of the spectrum though hopefully some sunny spells. Overnight frosts possible, depending on cloud cover.

The more likely outcome for next weekend would see high pressure continue to build in from the west, hopefully cutting off the cooler northerly flows and allowing something in the range of 14’C to 17’C – nothing special, but an improvement. Possible that it stays on the cool side instead, something warmer unlikely but not impossible.

Probably dry to end the month.

Early suggestions for May involve a sometimes showery month, but also some dry and warm spells. Nothing especially unusual currently looks on the cards.

June still looks drier, sunnier and warmer/hotter than normal. July and August perhaps too, but maybe I’m hopecasting a bit there. Enjoy your two warm days.…

Monday 8th April 2024

A mixed week ahead – but this does include something warmer and drier to end. Spring is definitely here.

Thanks to Catherine for the photograph.

So we start the week with low pressure close to the north of Scotland, and a little secondary low powering up to our south-west, and heading our way.

Mostly it will be quite grey today with lots of mid-level cloud, though this should allow some bright spells with hazy sunshine at times. Reaching around 16’C, perhaps a little more. Between mid-afternoon and early evening, an area of heavy showers will spread up from the south-west, perhaps thundery – but showers so maybe you’ll miss them. Mostly cloudy overnight, a few clear spells, the odd bit of light/moderate patchy rain around, especially towards dawn – but the wind the main story, with strong winds developing. Down to around 7’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy with bits and pieces of rain – mostly light/moderate though the odd heavy shower mixed in possibly – I stress the patchy nature. From around lunchtime onwards, slowly seeing more in the way of sunny spells, still a chance of a shower. Around 12’C and winds remaining strong. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 4’C though the wind fading.

Wednesday starts bright with hazy sunshine but cloud will thicken with rain arriving by late morning/lunchtime. Light/moderate rain – not expecting anything heavy, clearing around late afternoon/early evening. Around 12’C and windy once more. Remaining cloudy in the evening and overnight, with occasional light rain, staying around 12’C.

Thursday sees a ridge of high pressure building over the south of the UK – still a lot of cloud to start the day, and some uncertainty as to whether it will break up. Certainly the morning looks cloudy, still some patchy light rain – then the cloud potentially breaks up in the afternoon, the slightly more likely outcome – if it does, then 20’C will easily be reached, if it stays cloudy then 16’C is more realistic. Breezy. Fairly cloudy overnight, around 12’C.

By Friday high pressure is building fairly strongly over the south of the UK, the upper air is warmer than normal, the source of the air is warm. Alas, the jetstream is close to our north and the potential for cloud remains.

So I think more likely it starts cloudy, more likely it becomes sunny – perhaps with long spells of sunshine, but I do stress some uncertainty over cloud amounts throughout the day. I can promise dry. 18’C, 19’C should be reached – 20’C, maybe 21’C if we get long spells of sunshine. Breezy. Potentially the day almost everyone is waiting for…or so it seems! Down to around 10’C overnight.

Can it hang on for Saturday? Yes, just about though increased chances of high cloud making the sunshine hazy, and also some lower-level cloud later in the day perhaps. Otherwise bright with at least some hazy sunshine, still breezy, and temperatures between 18’C and 22’C.

Sunday is more uncertain – more likely a weak weather front overnight will have introduced cooler air. Low confidence, but a fair day seems more likely, some sunny spells, some cloud, a chance of a shower – and temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 16’C. Not impossible that there is a spell of rain instead.

Early next week looks like a cooler north-westerly flow – perhaps even a full-on northerly Arctic blast with wintry showers – perhaps!

The trend towards the end of April should be towards high pressure building close by, with drier conditions more likely. Too far away to know where high pressure might set up, and hence temperatures and sunshine/cloud amounts – I think warmer flows less likely than average/cooler flows though. We’ll see, there could easily be a mix as is standard for this time of year.

At least there’s some warm days to look forward to! Have a good week.…

Wednesday 3rd April 2024

I had a request to bring the sunshine and warmth back with me from Sicily…well, I kind of managed the warmth but there’s plenty more rain and showers to come.

Photograph is from me, as I needed something with some gloom!

Today starts cloudy and dull – the main rain has cleared away but there will still be bits and pieces of light rain/drizzle around, perhaps some mist too. Some sunny spells from around lunchtime onwards, one or two scattered showers too. Around 14’C, maybe 15’C. Becoming windy too. Clear spells at first this evening, but a band of heavy showers crossing mid/late evening, followed by more clear spells, followed by another band of heavy/very heavy showers towards dawn. Down to around 9’C.

By Thursday we are still dominated by this low pressure system close to our south-west – and which is once again starting to pull much warmer air into Europe – many countries in central/eastern Europe saw their hottest ever March day this weekend gone. I saw 31’C in Sicily…which seems a tad crazy.

Thursday starts with an area of heavy/very heavy showers. This clears fairly quickly to some sunny spells, but plenty of cloud and a fair scattering of showers, perhaps quite heavy. Quite warm in any sunny spells, 15’C, maybe 16’C and quite windy too, especially in showers. Cloudy in the evening with mostly light rain, becoming heavier but showery rain after midnight. A mild night but windy too, 12’C.

Showery rain quickly clears on Friday to sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and some scattered showers. Windy to start the day, breezy afterwards but also quite warm, 17’C, maybe 18’C. Cloud thickening as the afternoon goes on, with some patchy and mostly light rain in the evening. Mostly cloudy and dry for the rest of the night, in a mild southerly wind – no lower than 13’C.

Saturday morning sees us tap into this unusually warm air.

A fairly unusual day – and not just because it will be dry for a fair portion of the day. Hazy sunshine and warm, 18’C should be reached, perhaps 20’C – but combined with very strong winds, gusting 40mph, perhaps more. One or two showers possible in the afternoon, or more likely evening, as fresher air pushes east. Down to around 10’C overnight.

A bit of uncertainty for Sunday, but broadly sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and a few scattered showers – around 15’C or so – more notably the low pressure system sat to our south-west for the last 10 days or so, circulating and generating cut-off lows, finally moves north.

Alas, the next low pressure system will be on it’s way for Monday. Timing uncertain as to when rain arrives, so perhaps we squeeze a nice/warmish morning out first…or even afternoon if rain arrives in the evening/overnight.

Is there any hope for change? Hope…yes, but expectation not quite yet there.

It does look like the jetstream should shift north next week somewhat, and also it seems like high pressure is going to build over Spain and try to push north – so I think a trend to warmer weather, but with a mixture of pleasant days, and wet/showery days seems more likely as next week progresses and into next weekend.

The signal for April to be a warmer and wetter than normal month is strong (more records broken?) though there are certainly hints that the latter third of April should be drier too.

Improvements! I’m a bit out of sync with forecasts (and everything else in life) so I guess the next one will be this weekend.…

Friday 29th March 2024

Confirm that it is warm and sunny in Sicily. Confirm that it is not so in England, but actually we’ll squeeze a couple of half-decent days out, at least compared to recently.

Thanks to Andy for the photograph – sent in some time ago, but about as relevant an unused photograph as I can find!

So, Good Friday starts fairly cloudy with some showers around. Some sunny spells too, but further heavy and blustery showers will develop, most likely catching at least a few showers, perhaps with a rumble of thunder. Gusty winds, reaching around 12’C. Showers fading from around mid-afternoon, with increasing amounts of sunshine – and the wind easing too. Dry with reasonable clear skies overnight, chilly, down to around 3’C.

For Saturday, we are still controlled by this area of low pressure close to our west which has been there a few days and will only slowly recent – causing it to be cool and showery/wet in western Europe, but much warmer to the east.

Actually a reasonable day on Saturday for us – rain not too far to the east but this means hazy skies at times for us, otherwise fairly sunny, some fair-weather cloud and a small chance of a shower. 13’C, maybe 14’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, some mist/fog patches by dawn, down to around 4’C.

Easter Sunday also looks reasonable. Quite a lot of cloud at times, some early mist/fog too, one or two scattered showers – say a 30% chance of catching one. But also some sunny spells. Temperatures around 13’C or so, though if sunshine amounts surprise then maybe 15’C. Cloud thickening overnight with rain likely – though some uncertainty on timing/distribution.

Easter Monday is tricky in terms of details, but low pressure will bring rain or showers at times – perhaps brighter in the afternoon but still with some heavy showers around. A fairly broad range of possible outcomes – perhaps rain all day, perhaps bright with just the odd shower, but something in between as per the previous sentence seems more likely. Around 12’C give or take.

Tuesday looks more or less sunshine and showers, though on the sunnier side of the spectrum. Around 12’C, give or take. Rain probable in the evening and overnight – timing uncertain at this stage.

Wednesday sees rain clearing to brighter skies (with the timing uncertain proviso still in place).

And to finish next week, it looks like things become more mobile again, which means low pressure systems moving through rather than sat to our west. Wet, windy but very mild.

Not impossible that we squeeze a quite warm day or two late next week or next weekend, depending on timing/track of low pressure systems, but rain/showers far more likely.

Tentative signs that things settle down around mid-April…only tentative right now.

Guess I better go enjoy the Sicilian sunshine before I have to come back to the rain! Happy Easter/happy long weekend, delete as appropriate.…

Tuesday 26th March 2024

Probably a short update as I’m on holiday and have stuff to do, but also you probably don’t want to hear about more unsettled weather!

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

Today starts cloudy, some brightness possible at first but outbreaks of rain will spread up from the south during the morning, becoming persistent and quite heavy in the afternoon. Around 10’C. Rain slowly clears north during the evening, some clear skies overnight and down to around 5’C.

The general picture for Wednesday sees low pressure close to our west…and it won’t really move anywhere for a week or so.

Sunny to start, but a band of cloud and rain will then spread east, roughly around late morning with 2-3 hours of rain, though a little uncertainty on timing. Sunny spells and showers will follow for the rest of the afternoon, perhaps heavy, a small chance of thunder/hail. Around 10’C, with fairly strong winds in the rain, and gusty in any showers that follow. Another band of showery rain, likely on the heavy size, spreading across late evening/overnight – again timing a little uncertain. On the chilly side, 4’C.

Thursday sees further heavy showers, perhaps merging into longer spells of heavy rain, more likely in the morning if so. Some occasional sunshine but heavy showers really the theme, thunder/hail possible. 10’C and fairly strong winds once more. Further heavy showers overnight, down to around 7’C.

Good Friday won’t be good weather, but a bit more sunshine, and fewer showers – though still plenty of showers. Tending to be drier later in the afternoon, and temperatures up a tad to 12’C or so. Still quite windy. Generally cloudy overnight – a small chance of rain, but most likely it is to the east of the UK. Down to around 6’C, give or take.

Not 100% confidence for Saturday, but the more likely outcome is sunny spells and scattered heavy/very heavy showers, thunder possible. That said, not everywhere seeing showers, and with temperatures around 14’C, maybe 15’C – it should be quite pleasant.

The more likely outcome for Easter Sunday sees sunny spells and scattered heavy showers – and around 15’C. It could be worse.

And it probably will be worse, as Easter Monday looks like seeing heavy rain.

Further rain/showers expected next week, and temperatures perhaps below normal too. Joy. At least it looks like I’ll get 4 days of sunshine here in Palermo…and 28’C by Sunday! Rain today and tomorrow for me also, alas.…

Friday 22nd March 2024

Well I hope you enjoyed the dry day. Colder and becoming more unsettled is the theme once more.

Thanks to Kay for the photograph.

A cloudy start to the day with a little patchy light rain/drizzle. Gradually becoming more persistent and more moderate during the morning, clearing around lunchtime, with sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud following for the afternoon. Feeling cooler, 11’C. Reasonably clear skies tonight, some cloud at times and a stray shower possible. Down to around 3’C.

The general picture for the weekend sees high pressure to our west, low pressure with the colder air tracking down through the North Sea.

Sunny to start but cloud bubbling up with plenty of showers – some heavy, perhaps with a rumble of thunder, hail or sleet possibly mixed in too. Gusty winds, especially in the showers, around 8’C. Showers will fade by late afternoon. Reasonably clear overnight, still quite windy, a stray shower possible but most likely it will stay dry. Down to around 4’C.

Sunday is a calmer day. Sunny spells, quite a lot of cloud bubbling up – one or two showers dotted around during the lunchtime period, which should be fairly innocuous, and you may miss them all. Around 11’C, maybe 12’C. A chilly night at first, down to around 3’C, but temperatures picking up a bit as cloud thickens, then rain arrives by around dawn, give or take.

Monday sees outbreaks of rain in the morning, light to moderate most likely. This tending to move north during the day, so drier most likely in the afternoon, though also likely still cloudy. A bit of uncertainty on this aspect. Around 9’C.

By Tuesday details become more uncertain, but low pressure will be in charge, close to our west. More likely Tuesday is fairly cloudy with some showers/rain at some point – but details currently unknown, and will be until the models have more of a handle on where exactly low pressure will be, and how it behaves. Temperatures around 10’C.

And this is the general picture for the rest of the week, and I’m afraid, most likely for the Easter weekend. Low pressure will remain in situ somewhere close to our west – most days will see either rain or showers at some point, occasionally quite windy too – but at this stage it’s not possible to put timings on it.

During the week, temperatures broadly within the 9’C to 12’C, though with the low pressure pumping warmth up into Europe, it is plausible that we could tap into that somewhat for Easter weekend – maybe something between 13’C and 17’C during the latter part of Easter weekend…which if it is a showery day rather than a rainy day, could be semi-pleasant.

Of course, the Mediterranean warming up means I’m off on my jollies, but I should still get time to do forecasts as usual next week. I won’t quite be escaping the rain in Sicily, but I’ll take 5 out of 7 days of warm sunshine, which is what it currently looks like.

It will eventually improve here too…tentative signs of slight improvements in temperature and lower rainfall in early April, though this is a new signal, so caution required.

Have a good weekend.…

Tuesday 19th March 2024

It remains changeable – warmer, then colder, then wetter.

Photograph is from me this week, as Facebook isn’t loading messages for some reason.

This morning will be mostly cloudy with a few splashes of fairly light rain, as a weather front slowly sinks south-east, some occasional brightness. Likely still mostly cloudy this afternoon, but some sunny breaks, some brightness – a small chance of a light/moderate shower. Around 14’C, perhaps a little more if sunshine amounts surprise. Mostly cloudy this evening and overnight, some showery rain possible mid/late evening and around midnight – the bulk of it will be further north-west. Mild, around 10’C.

For Wednesday we see high pressure trying to build over the UK, the jetstream well to our north with associated weather systems, and one just dropping down to Spain.

Wednesday morning will be quite cloudy, though it should be thin enough for at least some hazy sunshine at times. Also one or two showers dotted around, and perhaps some patchy light/rain drizzle at times. In the afternoon, some more cloud breaks likely, so at least some sunshine, but plenty of cloud still around and available. Quite warm, 16’C, maybe 17’C. Fairly cloudy overnight though a few clear breaks, down to around 8’C.

Staying on the cloudy side for Thursday, the morning cloudier though some hazy sunshine possible, the afternoon generally sunnier, though some cloud still around. Mild, 14’C, maybe 15’C. Fairly cloudy and increasingly so overnight, as a weather front spreads down from the north-west, down to around 6’C – some rain possible by dawn, timing uncertain.

Friday starts cloudy with outbreaks of rain. Some uncertainty on how quickly it clears – could be anything between 9am and 4pm before it clears, I’d favour somewhere around midday. Also some uncertainty as to whether it will intensify into heavy rain – more likely light/moderate rain, but perhaps something more. Sunny spells, fair-weather cloud and cooler air following – around 11’C. Clear skies overnight and colder than of late, down to around 1’C in a fairly cold wind. A frost possible.

By Saturday, colder air has spread south.

Colder and showery – sunshine and showers will be the theme, some heavy showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, hail and sleet possibly mixed in too, especially in any notably heavy showers. Around 8’C but a pretty chilly wind. Quite windy with further showers possible overnight, around 3’C.

Sunday sees things moderating, some sunshine, some cloud, still likely some showers around, which could be on the heavy side – but generally fewer than Saturday – perhaps you’ll miss them. Still on the cool side, around 9’C. Chilly overnight – a frost possible.

I think this is where the forecast ends, at least with any form of accuracy on details, though more likely it becomes unsettled once more as the jetstream moves south, likely due to the sudden stratospheric warming event which happened a week or so ago.

More likely than not, next week will be unsettled with further spells of heavy rain, and heavy showers, strong winds possible at times too. Generally on the cool/cold side – an outside chance of some sleet/wet snow mixed in.

Likely this continues into Easter weekend too, but there is a small chance of dragging up some warmth from the Mediterranean instead…or as well as the rain.

April likely starts wet/showery too. It will change…in time.…

Friday 15th March 2024

Mild and mixed.

Thanks to Chickena for the photograph.

Today starts fairly cloudy with a few scattered showers. Drier for a time with some sunny spells, but more showers developing from around late morning onwards, heavy, perhaps very heavy with a rumble of thunder. It will feel semi-pleasant in the occasional sunny spells though, and reaching around 15’C. Quite windy, particularly in the showers. Clear skies overnight and a chilly night, down to around 2’C – a touch of frost in more sheltered areas by dawn.

For Saturday we have a ridge of high pressure trying to push up from the south, and further weather fronts pushing across from the west.

It starts sunny but cloud will thicken somewhat, with a few splashes of mostly light rain in the afternoon – though at time the cloud likely thin enough for some hazy sunshine too. Around 11’C or so. Showery rain spreading across in the evening and overnight, somewhat erratically – perhaps quite persistent rain for a while overnight. No lower than around 10’C.

Early cloud and perhaps still some rain will clear gradually on Sunday, to sunny spells, some cloud and a few scattered showers. 15’C, maybe 16’C – feeling quite warm. Some clear spells, some cloudy spells overnight.

Some uncertainty on cloud amounts on Monday, but broadly some cloudy spells likely, some sunshine at times – a small chance of a shower. Still on the mild/quite warm side, somewhere between 14’C and 16’C.

A weakening weather front crosses either Monday night or Tuesday morning – so depending on timing, Tuesday will turn into sunny spells and a few scattered showers. Again still on the mild/quite warm side – somewhere between 13’C and 17’C.

From there it is pretty uncertain on the direction, let alone day to day details.

Changeable looks more likely than settled, though there looks to at least be failing attempts at building high pressure over the UK.

Likewise it is uncertain whether we stay in the very mild/quite warm air, or we end up with something more westerly-sourced, around the 10’C to 12’C range. Maybe slight favourite the 10’C to 12’C range.

It’s not particularly surprising that after a major sudden stratospheric warming event the models are struggling to see the way ahead in the short-term, let alone medium-term.

Generally speaking, as we go towards the end of March and beginning of April, high pressure is more likely than not to build further north, so depending on where it builds, we’ll more likely either end up with a chilly/cold easterly/northerly, with the low pressure track over Spain/France latitudes, or we’ll end up wet and possibly chilly with the low pressure track over France/southern UK. A variation between the two also possible.

Always frustrating when I cannot give more detail in the short-term, but I’m not really trusting of the model output right now, so 3-4 days tops is as much as I feel I can offer in reasonable accuracy…I’m not even that confident about Monday or Tuesday’s forecast!

Enjoy your weekend…and the snippets of relative warmth!…

Tuesday 12th March 2024

Lots of cloud, but becoming much milder.

Thanks to Lucinda for the cloudy photograph. I actually have quite a few photographs in my Inbox at the moment – let’s hope for some sunshine so I can use the rest!

Today will be cloudy and wet. The rain heavier and more persistent this morning, becoming lighter and patchier this afternoon. Breezy and around 12’C. Still a few patches of light rain this evening, but it will become dry, if remaining cloudy. Down to around 10’C.

The general picture for Wednesday sees low pressure to our north-west, and high pressure once more building over Spain, pumping up warmth – a similar pattern as to what gave us the record-warm (and wet) February.

Cloudy is the theme, perhaps a little patchy light rain at times – though some limited brightness will be possible, especially in the afternoon. Mild, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Breezy too. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 8’C.

Thursday again sees plenty of cloud, but there will be some bright/sunny spells too. Later in the afternoon, a weather front will bring some showers – a bit of uncertainty on the timing, more likely late afternoon but perhaps earlier, or perhaps not until evening. Reaching 15’C, perhaps a bit more if the showers can hold off until later…I wouldn’t rule out a 17’C. Ooh! Remaining breezy too. Scattered showers in the evening and overnight, possibly on the heavy side, no lower than around 10’C.

Friday sees plenty more cloud, a bit of sunshine at times, and quite a few showers – likely heavy, perhaps very heavy with a rumble of thunder. Breezy and mild, 14’C, maybe 15’C. Clear skies and a chilly night likely, down to around 3’C – perhaps a touch of frost by dawn.

Details a bit uncertain for the weekend, high pressure trying to poke its nose in from the south, but weather fronts continue to march across too.

Broadly speaking, the more likely outcome for Saturday sees bright and dry weather in the morning, with cloud thickening and some rain later. Perhaps we can squeeze out something a bit more spring-like, but also perhaps we don’t get the bright and dry morning. The theme is there, but the timing is in question as it stands. In the range of 12’C to 15’C.

Sunday is again somewhat uncertain, but more likely we’ll be between weather systems, so broadly, some sunshine, some cloud and temperatures around 15’C, give or take. Not bad really, though I stress not especially high confidence.

Next week likely starts on the mild/quite warm side, though positioning of weather fronts uncertain – and hence uncertain as to cloud amounts/rain timing, etc. Temperatures more likely to head back down to normal, or even on the chilly side as the week goes on, and generally remaining changeable.

In the latter part of the month, both colder than average, and warmer than average conditions are more likely than normal. The former due to the sudden stratospheric warming event, the latter due to the strength (again) of the Spanish high pressure. Don’t be surprised to see a flip from one to the other.

April is still looking mixed, some colder spells still possible at the beginning, some warmer spells at the end.

Signals for May have trended to warmer and drier than normal, signals for June also remain this way. There should be some very nice weather ahead!

Interestingly I saw a paper published that seemed to argue that a late season sudden stratospheric warming event (which we’ve had) means a warmer and drier summer is more likely – which is something I’ve believed for a few years, and now maybe there is scientific evidence.

I haven’t read the paper (a bit too heavy going for me), so I may be paraphrasing incorrectly, hopefully I got the gist. Next forecast should be Friday morning.…