Thursday 14th October 2021

A few more quiet days, then unsettled next week.

Thanks to Kay for the photograph.

Tonight starts with broken cloud, thicker cloud after midnight as a very weak weather front sinks south. Fairly mild at around 12’C.

Friday sees high pressure remain in control, though cooler air will have sunk south behind the weak weather front.

A cloudy start, perhaps a splash of light rain in the morning, but by around lunchtime some sunny spells will develop. Generally fine in the afternoon – some cloud at times, some sun at times. Scraping 14’C. Some clear spells overnight, but cloudy at times too – perhaps a light shower – generally more cloud as the night goes on. Down to around 6’C.

Saturday looks pretty cloudy, though alternating between thicker cloud and thinner high-based cloud – the latter allowing some hazy sunshine at times. A tad warmer, 16’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, perhaps a bit of patchy light rain later in the night as a weak weather front pushes in from the west, around 11’C.

Sunday looks fairly cloudy as the overnight weak weather front continues to decay. There may be some occasional light rain, there should be some occasional sunshine. 17’C in a warmish south-westerly breeze – warmish for mid-October anyway. Mostly cloudy overnight, around 11’C.

Monday looks mostly cloudy, again, though with the benefit of some much warmer upper air than normal.

Perhaps some hazy sunshine at times in the morning, perhaps some showery bits of rain in the afternoon as weather fronts edge ever closer – details a bit hazy on arrival times of weather fronts. 17’C is feasible, maybe a shade more. Overnight probably seeing some showery rain, temperatures very mild at around 16’C and quite windy too.

A bit of uncertainty on details for Tuesday, likely to see some rain at some point but also there is a chance of some hazy sunshine at times. The unusually warm upper air, means 21’C is possible with sunshine, closer to 19’C if it remains cloudy – likely a bit humid also, and quite windy too. Heavy rain or heavy showers overnight, timing uncertain, windy and we should hang onto the relative warmth, 16’C.

On Wednesday we push away the warmth – it may hang on until later in the day, it may clear early in the day. Sunshine and showers will be the main theme either way, some heavy, hail possible, a small chance of thunder – with strong winds. Temperatures will depend on how long the warmth hangs on for, somewhere between 13’C and 18’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 10’C.

Thursday should remain showery, some sunshine, plenty of showers which could easily be heavy, squally with hail and thunder. Windy, around 15’C.

Friday is not certain, but it is looking more likely that we’ll see cooler (can I say “colder” yet?) air spread down from the north. More in the way of sunshine and fewer showers. Temperatures around 10’C. I hope my new coat arrives by then. Chilly overnight – perhaps just a little too early for a frost, but not far away – especially in more sheltered areas.

Weekend is uncertain – but if the northerly plunge happened, then cool but dry with some sunshine would be the most likely outcome.

Probably fairly mixed for the week after and to the end of October, though with a trend to drier conditions. Most likely becoming mild again.

November still looks drier than normal, but the early third or so may be mild (instead of previous expectations of colder than normal) – it will still depend on exact positioning of high pressure as it could end up in a cold, frosty, foggy kind of scenario.…

Monday 11th October 2021

High pressure in control again this week – mostly dry, sometimes sunny with varying temperatures.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear spells, some cloud and a little chilly, down to around 7’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure centred just to the west of Ireland, with a light northerly flow for us.

Sunny spells in the morning, much cloudier from around late morning, a little patchy rain around but not amounting to much – if anything. 14’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday sees the high nudge east a bit, cutting off the cooler northerly flow. Some sunny spells but a lot of cloud around. 16’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, a few clear spells, down to around 9’C.

Thursday remains settled. Some cloudy spells, but some sunny spells too. Likely more cloud than sunshine overall, and reaching around 17’C. Cloudy overnight, a weak weather front spreading down from the north will bring a little patchy rain towards/around dawn, 11’C.

Friday starts cloudy, perhaps a spot of light rain. There will be decent sunny spells once this weak weather front clear south, variable amounts of cloud and a bit cooler once more, 14’C. Probably quite cloudy overnight, though cloud extent uncertain. Down to around 8’C, give or take.

Saturday remains settled. Some sunny spells, some cloudy spells, and temperatures around 15’C. Probably quite cloudy overnight, around 9’C, give or take.

For Sunday we will probably have a milder south-westerly flow. Again, some sunshine, some cloud, temperatures around 17’C.

Monday looks rather cloudy with a strengthening south-westerly wind, as low pressure edges closer from the west. Staying warmish.

A chance to more unsettled conditions looks like either Monday night or Tuesday, with an area of rain spreading east. Perhaps as early as Monday day…a bit too early to be sure on timing.

Likely staying unsettled next week, windy with rain/showers at times. And generally changeable for the last third of October – some rain/showers on some days – but some fine days too. Quite mixed – and temperatures variable too.…

Thursday 7th October 2021

High pressure remains in control – warm for a few days, then cooler, then (probably) warmer again.

Some cloud, some fog – but some sunshine too.

Thanks to Mark for the photograph.

Variable cloud to start tonight but low cloud will form, with mist and fog patches from the early hours especially in more rural areas. Mild, 14’C.

For Friday we are in this much warmer flow than normal – thanks to ex-hurricane Sam in the Atlantic.

The morning starts with mist and fog in places, low cloud otherwise, a spot of drizzle in places. There will be some sunny breaks in the afternoon but it will remain rather cloudy. Reaching 19’C, maybe 20’C if you get lucky with enough sunshine. Clear spells overnight, mist/fog forming in some places before dawn, but not as widespread as the night before. Down to around 8’C.

Saturday starts with mist/fog in places, sunny spells otherwise. Sunny spells for all once early mist/fog clears but cloud will bubble up – likely slightly more cloud than sunshine overall, around 18’C. A very weak weather front will spread south-east overnight, bringing mostly cloud (some clear spells at first) and perhaps a splash of light rain. Down to around 10’C.

Sunday morning will be mostly cloudy as we wait for the pointless weather front to clear. The afternoon will be mostly sunny, though a bit of cloud at times. Around 18’C, maybe a tad less. Quite a lot of high level cloud overnight, down to around 7’C.

By Monday our area of high pressure nudges west a tad, enough to allow a somewhat cooler northerly flow.

Generally quite cloudy, a bit of sunshine at times and around 15’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 8’C.

Tuesday has a teeny bit of uncertainty over the positioning of the high pressure system. More likely quite a bit of cloud, but with some sunny spells and around 14’C. Possible that it may be mostly cloudy, a small chance of a shower – and possible that it may be a bit notably cooler than 14’C too. Uncertain on overnight cloud amounts and hence temperatures – it could be clear and around 5’C or cloudy and around 10’C.

By Wednesday our high pressure system should nudge back east and cut off the cooler air. Assuming so, there will be sunny spells, some cloud, temperatures around 16’C.

Thursday broadly similar, sunny spells, some cloud, temperatures around 17’C.

Friday and into next weekend most likely stay dry with high pressure in control – and most likely stay warmish with sunny spells.

There is a small chance instead of a cooler northerly flow – but most likely that will be well to our east.

Perhaps more changeable the next week – but only very slight and conflicting signals.

Have a good weekend.…

Monday 4th October 2021

One more unsettled day, before it becomes dry and warmer – thanks to Hurricane Sam.

No photograph because Facebook is down so I cannot access them. I wonder if more of you will make it to this website than normal?!

This evening becomes cloudy with heavy rain arriving around 11pm, give or take, with around 4-6 hours of heavy and at times very heavy rain. Quite windy for a time with temperatures around 11’C.

Tuesday sees low pressure in control.

The bulk of the rain will be further north, but it will be fairly cloudy with a few showers – some sunny spells at times too. Cool and windy, around 14’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, perhaps a little patchy rain late evening as the weather front to our north edges south-east, but more likely we’ll stay dry. Becoming clear later overnight, staying windy, around 8’C.

Wednesday sees high pressure nudge in from the south-west. Long spells of sunshine all day, a bit of fair weather cloud floating around and temperatures around 16’C. Uncertainty on cloud amounts overnight, more likely clear and chilly, down to around 6’C – but a risk of some low cloud forming and something milder.

Thursday sees the warmer air arrive, though there will be areas of low cloud at times – so a mixture of sunny spells and cloudy spells, probably more cloud than sunshine overall. Around 19’C in a south-westerly breeze. Some clear spells possible at first overnight, though low cloud will develop, and possibly fog by dawn. Somewhere around 12’C.

For Friday we will remain in the warm flow, thanks to Hurricane Sam (ex-hurricane at this point), which will be south-west of Iceland.

It will take a while for low cloud to break up – and it may not do. I’m hopeful for some sunshine in the afternoon and volumes will determine maximum temperatures – somewhere between 17’C and 20’C. Low cloud likely forming overnight, fog possible by dawn, around 12’C.

Similarly for Saturday, possibly foggy to start, likely cloudy. It will again take some time to break up, it may not do, but I’m hopeful for some sunny spells and temperatures around 18’C. Low cloud and fog may form overnight once more.

A bit more hopeful for sunshine on Sunday as high pressure manoeuvres slightly further west. Still probably rather cloudy in the morning, but as the day goes on it should become sunnier, with temperatures around 19’C. Likely clearer skies overnight and chilly, say 8’C.

Monday probably fairly sunny, Tuesday probably fairly cloudy – a more northerly flow setting in so becoming notably cooler by Tuesday.

High pressure is likely to stay in charge for much of October, at least until after mid-month with it being mostly dry, sometimes sunny though sometimes cloudy, overnight fog possible – more likely warmer (well…milder) than normal but that will depend on exact positioning of high pressure.

In the latter third of October, some more showers/bands of rain likely, but still more dry days than not.

I’m still unusually confident for both November and December to be colder and drier than normal.…

Thursday 30th September 2021

Well, it is definitely autumnal – and there is a wet and windy weekend to come.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Tonight will be cloudy with occasional bits of rain – mild and windy at around 15’C.

Friday sees low pressure in charge to our north.

It will start cloudy with bits and pieces of light rain, followed by around 2 hours of heavier rain shortly after dawn, say 8am onwards approximately. Sunny spells will follow, the odd scattered shower at first but becoming mostly sunny for much of the afternoon. 16’C and winds lessening. Clear skies at first overnight, down to around 8’C, but cloud thickening as the night goes on.

You may remember me talking about the secondary low expected for either Saturday or Sunday – a low that develops south of the main low pressure system, and deepening rapidly.

This will arrive on Saturday morning, bringing rain – often heavy, from around mid/late morning onwards. It looks like the core of the low will be a little further south-east of us, say over Kent where winds will be strong enough for some damage/disruption – though for us gusts of 40-45mph more likely the maximum, during the afternoon and evening.

The rain will clear around late afternoon/early evening. 13’C for most of the day though a tad milder in the evening. There is a chance of a further spell of rain moving up from the south-west overnight – this is uncertain, and may track further east – really kind of 50/50 scenario at the moment, maybe 40/60 in favour of staying dry.

Sunday looks kind of reasonable. Sunny spells, fair weather cloud, around a 40% chance of a shower or two – certainly an improvement from Saturday. Around 16’C and quite windy. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 10’C.

Monday will be similar to Sunday, though a greater chance of showers – say around a 70% chance of a couple of showers, probably on the heavy side too. Some sunny spells and temperatures around 16’C, breezy. Heavy rain and strong winds likely overnight from another secondary low.

Tuesday sees this secondary low over us or close by – somewhere between north France and north England will likely see gales or severe gales depending on the exact track, but that won’t be known until closer to the time.

Also, Hurricane Sam to the east of America will be determining our weather for later in the week – more on that later.

Tuesday will be unsettled with either heavy rain or heavy showers – depending on the track/timing of this secondary low. Around 14’C.

What happens then depends on Hurricane Sam and how he/she interacts with the jetstream.

The slightly more likely outcome is that it interacts with the jetstream and pushes it north of us, allowing high pressure to build with some lovely October tropical air for us – and hopefully some warm sunshine.

The slightly less likely outcome is that it has minimal or no interaction with the jetstream, temperatures remain a little low and our weather is changeable – some sunshine, but also some bands of rain – less than the current pattern though.

Details for Wednesday onwards are therefore uncertain, though in either scenario some rain/showers looks likely at some point on Wednesday and/or Thursday – though in the warmer scenario you’d be noticing the warmth by Thursday.…

Monday 27th September 2021

Autumn has returned and it is an unsettled week or so to come.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear skies and will be breezy, down to around 9’C. Cloud thickening by dawn.

Tuesday sees a large low pressure trough from roughly Greenland to the UK, with the main low over Iceland and a secondary low forming over us.

It starts bright with some sunny spells, but cloud will bubble up and heavy showers will spread inland – likely all seeing a few heavy showers, a small chance of thunder. By late afternoon/early evening, a band of heavy/very heavy rain will spread across from the west, lasting around 2 hours, perhaps longer – a bit of uncertainty on how quick it clears. Reaching around 17’C and breezy. Reasonably clear skies overnight, a very small chance of a shower, down to around 8’C.

Wednesday will be fine with good sunny spells, but feeling cooler in a north-westerly breeze at around 15’C. Some cloud around, notably late morning to mid-afternoon, and a small chance of a shower. Clear skies for much of the night, though cloud thickening before dawn, perhaps a light shower by dawn, 8’C.

Thursday sees the next weather front spreading down from the north-west but a weaker affair this one. Bright to start, some hazy sunshine but plenty of cloud and maybe a light shower. Generally fairly cloudy in the afternoon, some bits of rain at times, a little brightness, becoming windy and a bit milder, 16’C or so. Cloudy overnight with occasional bits of rain, mild and windy too, 15’C.

Friday is a tad uncertain on details, but broadly sees heavy showers and/or heavy rain moving east – but timing is uncertain with some sunny spells possible. Windy and around 16’C – showers less likely later in the afternoon. Clear spells overnight, down to around 7’C.

Same kind of pattern into the weekend – the main low pressure system to our north with a developing secondary low probably heading our way – these secondary lows can be quite nasty if you catch them in their peak development phase so there is a small-moderate chance of some very strong winds – but not possible to determine until closer to the time.

The whole development of this probable second low is uncertain (timing, track and whether it even develops at all), so it is possible that it arrives during the day and brings a wet and windy day for Saturday – but more likely it doesn’t and it will be quite reasonable, with decent sunny spells and just a small chance of an afternoon shower. Quite windy, around 15’C.

Assuming this secondary low develops as per more likely outcome, then overnight will see heavy rain and strong winds.

That would leave Sunday windy with sunny spells and scattered showers – likely on the cool side too, say 13’C very approximately.

Again, I stress the uncertainty over details – this possibly nasty low could be Saturday day, is more likely Saturday night, but could even be Sunday instead. It should track over England, but it isn’t impossible that it would be further south over France and we’ll miss the heavy rain/strong winds. There is a small chance of gales or even severe gales.

Next week likely starts windy and showery, perhaps with another area of rain.

Tentative suggestions that high pressure may build from Wednesday to re-assert more dry, sunny weather – we may even see more relative warmth at some point.…

Thursday 23rd September 2021

Well, it has been a pretty nice, sunny and warm September so far, and we can just about squeeze enough out for the weekend too.

A change to something more autumnal will occur on Monday – though changeable rather than outright unsettled.

Thanks to Claire for the photograph.

Tonight will see mostly clear skies, a small chance of some mist/fog by dawn in a few spots, down to around 11’C.

Friday sees high pressure remain in charge, though low pressure is not too far to our north.

Long spells of sunshine in the morning, some cloud will spread from the west during the afternoon but it will remain pleasant. Very warm, 24’C. Clear spells at first overnight but low cloud and possibly fog forming widely by the early hours, around 14’C.

Saturday starts dull and cloudy, perhaps foggy. This will take a while to break up and likely there will be spells of cloud for much of the day – but some sunny spells at times. A small chance of a shower, around 21’C. Clear spells at times overnight, though a small disturbance in the early hours may bring a shower or two – very hit and miss. Around 13’C.

Sunday is the last of the warm days. Sunny spells with variable amounts of cloud – a few scattered showers too, more likely during the morning and lunchtime period. Around 21’C. Cloud increasing overnight with rain by the early hours, some heavy bursts possible. A warmish and windyish night, 16’C.

Monday sees fresher air having spread across from the west.

The band of rain should have cleared by dawn, or will do a little after. Sunny spells and scattered showers will follow, around 18’C and breezy. Clear spells overnight, down to around 11’C.

Tuesday looks like sunny spells and showers. Perhaps a more organised band of heavy showers with hail/thunder possible – though details uncertain at this stage. Around 16’C. Clear skies overnight and chilly, down to around 7’C.

Wednesday is uncertain. The more likely outcome sees a spell of rain, the less likely outcome keeps it sunny all day. Around 15’C either way.

Thursday probably sees rain spread down from the north-west – uncertain on the timing so there could be sunny spells before and/or after. Temperatures somewhere between 12’C and 18’C depending on the timing.

Friday and into next weekend are uncertain on details, but looks like low pressure will be in charge, crossing to our north, but high pressure close to the south will have influence also.

Expect it to be windy but fairly warm, with at least one spell of rain in this period, and possible showers too – but also some bright spells too. Perhaps more likely back into the cooler air for Sunday.

Fairly low confidence – neither a washout or a warm, sunny weekend can be ruled out.

I do expect further warmer than normal weather after this short changeable spell – or as part of it, so October probably will end up warmer than normal too, and should settle down after this short changeable spell.

Looking further ahead, and my confidence for a colder than normal November and December is growing, the polar vortex is not forming in any meaningful way – similar to last winter – which will give higher chances of cold weather than normal.

Further to that, background signals remain supportive of a cold end to autumn/start to winter – and longer range models are already signalling an early season sudden stratospheric warming event.

I’m not sure how accurate such modelling is this far out, I don’t recall seeing an SSW modelled this far away.

But if one happens then it could be a notably cold November/December. Maybe make sure you have some alternative heating sources with the gas prices as they are!…

Monday 20th September 2021

Autumnal weather has been postponed and we’ll stay reasonably pleasant and warm this week.

It did look like we were going to get a notable taste of autumn late this week, however an ex-tropical storm in the far west of the Atlantic is taking a more southerly track than expected, pushing high pressure further east – which means that the north-westerly flow I was expecting by the end of this week is kind of getting squashed away.

Twice this September, at short notice, ex-tropical systems have affected our weather for the better.

Thanks to Paul for the photograph.

Mostly clear skies tonight, a few patches of mist and fog will form by dawn, down to around 10’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure in charge.

Early mist/fog patches will lift to sunny spells and variable cloud. Likely more cloud than sunshine during the afternoon but remaining bright with some sunny spells. Around 20’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, a small chance of mist/fog patches forming, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday will see good spells of sunshine. Some cloud at times, notably early-mid afternoon, but mostly a fairly sunny day. Around 21’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 11’C with a north-westerly breeze picking up.

Thursday morning will be cloudy due to a weak weather front, perhaps a spot of light rain. Becoming sunnier during the afternoon. Warm, 22’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C though with fog forming in places before dawn.

Early fog patches will clear on Friday, with good sunny spells following. Perhaps clear skies all day – perhaps some fair weather cloud, but either way pleasant and warm, 23’C. Clear at first overnight but low cloud and/or fog forming quite widely, around 13’C.

Saturday starts with either fog or extensive low cloud. It will probably take a little while for it to clear, but the sun should break through for another pleasant day with sunny spells, though not yet certain. Assuming so, then reaching around 21’C. A chance of showers spreading up from the south overnight – though very early stages and very uncertain.

Sunday is more uncertain. Those possible overnight showers could be Sunday morning showers instead – once that clears then again we should see at least some sunny spells, and we will still be in the warm air. But details on that possible area of showers Saturday night/Sunday morning, and levels of sunshine/cloud after are still uncertain.

Early next week probably sees fresher air with some rain/showers push in from the west, but I’m not yet convinced – it is the more likely outcome.

I still see further warmth and sunshine likely around end of September and into the beginning stretch of October – maybe even into mid-October – though occasional rain too.…

Thursday 16th September 2021

The reasonable weather continues (for now), though some showers possible and some cooler nights.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Tonight will be fairly clear, albeit with some high cloud, down to around 12’C.

Friday morning sees hazy sunshine. General cloud will bubble up from late morning, and for a while there will be more cloud than sunshine – but becoming sunnier again later in the afternoon. Still warm, 22’C. Quite cloudy overnight though some clear spells, down to around 13’C.

By Saturday, the general picture is of a somewhat more energised Atlantic trying to push weather fronts in from the west – but coming up against a big block of high pressure to our east, with some unusually cold weather for the time of year in Scandinavia/Russia.

It will be pleasant for us, some decent sunny spells though a fair amount of cloud too. A 20% chance of a shower, more likely in the afternoon, but also possible first thing. 23’C. Rather cloudy overnight, a little bit of rain at some point as a weak weather front tries to push east, 15’C.

Sunday is a tricky forecast, the aforementioned weak weather front will sporadically be moving east, but will also start to intensify. Getting the location of where it will be when it starts to intensify during the morning is tricking – but most likely we’ll see showers or showery rain slowly and erratically pushing east. Don’t be shocked if it stays dry, it will depend on how far east the weather front pushed overnight, but most likely it won’t. Temperatures somewhere between 16’C and 20’C. Uncertain overnight – it is feasible that the weather front could get stuck in place, and we end up wet, but more likely it will have pushed east and we’ll see clear spells and around 10’C.

Monday is also a bit tricky. Broadly speaking, some sunny spells and quite a lot of cloud. However it is feasible that the weather front is either still stuck over us, or heads back west over us – and brings some more showers/showery rain. Temperatures around 19’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 8’C.

Tuesday is easier – sunny spells, fair weather cloud – likely more cloud than sunshine around the lunchtime hours, and around 18’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 8’C.

Wednesday sees a weather front spread down from the north-west, but more likely it stays dry for much of the day, with spells of sunshine, albeit increasingly hazy. Around 20’C. Timing is uncertain on the weather front as it spreads down from the north-west, but more likely either evening or overnight – bringing a spell of rain and some strong winds. Down to around 10’C.

Thursday looks like autumn announces its arrival – with low pressure spreading down from the north-west with more seasonal temperatures.

Some sunny spells, but also some cloud with either scattered showers or a band of general rain – uncertain right now. Quite windy and around 16’C. Variable cloud overnight, around 9’C, a shower or two possible in the wind.

Friday will be broadly similar, showers or rain, windy, cool – though some sunny spells also possible. Around 15’C.

Next weekend is uncertain at this stage. Slightly more likely outcome is that we stay in this cooler, north-westerly slow, windy, some showers but some sunshine too – or something like that.

Further warm days remain likely for the end of September and into the start of October, often dry with sunshine – but also weather fronts bringing rain, wind and fresher weather occasionally.

As October progresses, I do expect more north-westerly flows, so expect more wind, showers and cooler than normal conditions at times.…

Monday 13th September 2021

A mixed week ahead – some sunshine at times, but some showers and rain too – especially tomorrow.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, some showery rain after midnight but pretty hit and miss, some places getting some light rain, some places staying dry, some places may see a heavy shower or two. 15’C.

Tuesday morning sees heavy showery rain spreading up from the south – it will intensify in places so some may get some heavy downpours, but for others just some showery, heavy rain. Brighter in the afternoon, but still some heavy showers around. Reaching around 20’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of light rain by dawn, around 15’C.

By Wednesday, we see Tuesday’s little low pressure in the North Sea, with high pressure building from the south-west.

Cloudy to start, perhaps a spot of light rain, slowly during the day some sunny breaks appearing though probably not until mid/late afternoon when there will be more notable sunny spells. Around 20’C. Fairly clear overnight, some high cloud, around 13’C.

Thursday starts sunny. Cloud will bubble from late morning, overall a little more cloud than sunshine, but pleasant enough and warm, 22’C. Clear spells overnight, though some high cloud, around 13’C.

Friday starts bright with some sunny spells. A weather front will push in from the west bringing cloud and some showers – timing uncertain but more likely afternoon/evening – though perhaps not until overnight. Warm, 23’C (unless the showery rain arrives earlier). The weather front likely continues to slowly cross overnight bringing some showery rain, around 15’C.

Saturday should be fine with sunny spells, some fair weather cloud and around 21’C. However there is a little bit of uncertainty due to Friday’s weather front – there is maybe a 20% chance instead that it lingers and we get something showery and around 19’C.

Similar for Sunday, assuming that weather front cleared east overnight on Friday, then Sunday will also see sunny spells, variable amounts of cloud and temperatures around 21’C. But if Saturday was showery (the 20% chance) then Sunday probably will be too.

The more likely outcome for next week is that high pressure hangs on, bringing mostly dry weather – though the odd weak band of rain may well progress south-east once or twice next week. Otherwise, fairly warm, some sunshine and some cloud.…