Monday 24th January 2022

High pressure remains dominant, but subtle changes with high pressure being generally a little further south and a little further west, which will allow for more variable temperatures, and a little rain from weak weather fronts.

Given the state of my post-birthday hangover, I am rather glad the weather remains boring.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy, with the odd clear spell. Down to around 1’C, a frost in places.

Tuesday sees high pressure remain in control, though centred quite a bit to our south-west.

Cloudy all day, temperatures struggling to 3’C – the odd glimmer of brightness possible. Mostly cloudy overnight, though a few breaks possible towards dawn. Down to around 1’C, a frost possible in places.

Wednesday will be often cloudy, though there should be some sunny breaks at times through the day. A westerly breeze picking up and helping to lift temperatures to 8’C. Some clear (ish) spells at first overnight, though too much high cloud for a frost. Thicker cloud spreading down from the north later in the night, with the odd spot of light rain or drizzle by dawn. Anyone remember when it last rained?!

Thursday starts cloudy with some patchy light rain or drizzle. Sunny spells spreading down by around lunchtime, and quite a bit milder too, 11’C – though a cool breeze. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though high cloud quite extensive in the second half of the night. Down to around 0’C with a frost for most.

Friday will be often bright – a lot of high cloud all day so sunny spells will be hazy, and also at times there will be thicker, low cloud wandering around too. 8’C in a westerly breeze. Mostly cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of light rain or drizzle. 6’C.

Saturday sees high pressure to our south-west, dragging milder air around our high pressure system.

A lot of cloud, probably some sunny spells at times, perhaps a little light rain at some point. 12’C so feeling mild – breezy too. Uncertain on cloud amounts overnight, and hence temperatures.

Sunday is probably mostly cloudy, though uncertain at this stage. Mild, around 12’C.

Probably colder on Monday, perhaps a shower or two, which could even have a wintry flavour.

Then probably a return to mild from Tuesday or Wednesday – remaining mostly dry next week, though the odd weak weather front at some points might bring a little light rain.…

Thursday 20th January 2022

High pressure still well in control, sticking to the UK like a magnet. So more of the same.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

Tonight will be mostly clear and frosty. Widely down to -2’C, though -4’C in some more sheltered spots – so quite a sharp frost.

Friday sees high pressure overt the UK, centred slightly to our west – and though it shifts slightly from day to day, it will almost certainly be in roughly the same position next Friday.

Mostly sunny in the morning, a little cloud floating around – though an area of cloud sinking south in the afternoon. Reaching 6’C. Some areas of cloud overnight, likely a frost for most at around 0’C – assuming enough clear spells.

My birthday looks rather cloudy, but there should be some sunny or bright spells at times – there is some uncertainty on cloud amounts. Around 6’C. Still rather cloudy overnight, a few clear spells but likely too much cloud for a frost, down to around 2’C.

Sunday looks mostly cloudy and dull. The odd glimmer of brightness at times. Around 6’C, maybe 7’C. Likely too much cloud for a frost overnight, down to around 2’C.

Monday looks mostly cloudy once more. Some glimmers of sunshine possible at times, perhaps something closer to sunny spells by late afternoon. 5’C. Some clear spells overnight but quite a lot of cloud – a frost possible, around 0’C.

Probably still mostly cloudy on Tuesday, though confidence lower – certainly possible that there may be some sunny spells by this point. Around 6’C. Frost possible overnight but will depend on cloud amounts.

Wednesday sees more of the same. Some cloud at times, probably some sunny spells – though uncertain on cloud amounts. Around 7’C.

Suggestions of a weak weather front sinking south either Wednesday night or into Thursday, which might bring a little rain. Timing uncertain at this stage – sunny spells will follow.

So Friday back to square one. High pressure in control, temperatures around 7’C, uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts.

Next weekend likely stays dry and settled, perhaps a tad milder.

Into the beginning of February probably sees high pressure sink south a bit, allowing trailing remnants of weather fronts to occasionally sink south and bring a little rain, and some wind at times too.

Though it will remain mostly dry. Temperatures probably slightly above average (7’C/8’C is around average for the time of year) overall. And otherwise the similar mixture of cloudy spells, sunny spells, overnight frosts when not cloudy, and fog possible – though broadly less likely than recently.

Have a good weekend. I’ll be back with another dry forecast on Monday!…

Monday 17th January 2022

High pressure remains in control so mostly dry, settled with some frost and fog on some nights.

Thanks to Jules for the photograph.

Clear and frosty to start the night – fog developing in some places from late evening onwards, and many places by dawn. Broadly down to around -2’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure in control, centred over Belgium though starting to build to the west of the UK too.

It will start frosty and/or foggy. Fog will take quite some time, perhaps all morning to clear for some – though some spots may see some morning sunshine. Generally cloudy in the afternoon. Around 8’C for most, though closer to 4’C in any spots where fog lingers. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 4’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy, a weak weather front may give a little light rain. Sunny in the afternoon, some bits of cloud around, quite windy too and feeling colder as somewhat colder air moves south-east. Around 8’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 1’C with a frost in places.

Thursday will be mostly sunny, just the odd bit of cloud floating around. Feeling notably colder in a light northerly breeze, 4’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and a fairly sharp frost, down to around -3’C.

Friday sees sunny spells though some cloud at times, especially in the afternoon. Still on the cold side, 6’C. A frost probable overnight, though a bit of uncertainty on cloud amounts – down to around 0’C.

Saturday remains dry and settled. Sunny spells, some cloud likely at times, around 7’C. Frost probable overnight, small chance of fog.

Sunday sees the UK remain a magnet for high pressure – I keep saying this, but if only it were spring/summer. Probably sunny or at least sunny spells and some cloud, around 7’C. Frost probable overnight, fog possible.

Next week high pressure should remain on the scene, so more of the same. Perhaps another short colder snap (like as described for Thursday above) at some point, but mostly temperatures around normal – some sunny days, but some cloudier days (especially if fog slow to clear). Frost likely at night, fog some nights also.

This general pattern should continue through much of February, though with high pressure further south, so at times we’ll see remnants of weather fronts bringing bits of rain – with the main rain bands towards Scotland or even further north of there. And as February goes on, the days become longer, the chance of something more spring-like will increase.

Currently, March looks like it will be sunnier than normal, much drier than normal and warmer than normal. Temperatures will depend on the exact positioning of high pressure which is impossible to forecast exactly for next week let alone 6-10 weeks away, but I’m certainly hopeful of something pleasant/very pleasant. Unless events cause it to change…though the main threat, a sudden stratospheric warming, looks very unlikely.

Possible that we are at the beginning of a long drier than normal spell.…

Thursday 13th January 2022

High pressure remains in control for the next week – some sun, some cloud, some frost and some fog. Generally quite cold but nothing unusual for January.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph.

Tonight sees clear skies with a frost, down to around -1’C. Mist/fog patches forming in some places.

For Friday we have high pressure centred over the south-east of England – ahhh if only it were spring or summer.

If you start foggy then it may take quite some time to clear, and temperatures will be lower, say 3’C – but for most places it will be sunny all day and around 6’C. Fog forming more widely overnight – most places will be foggy for much of the night, though an early frost likely before fog forms. Down to around 0’C, though picking up a bit as fog forms to around 2’C.

Saturday morning will be foggy for most. It will take most of the morning to clear and then it will be mostly cloudy for the rest of the day. Feeling chilly, 6’C. Often cloudy overnight, a weak weather front may give a dash of light rain, around 3’C.

Sunday looks often cloudy. Some sunny spells – more likely in the afternoon, the odd splash of rain possible in the morning. A bit milder, 8’C, maybe 9’C. Clear spells overnight, probably a frost though uncertain at this stage – down to around 0’C.

Monday should be sunny, maybe a little cloud around. Around 7’C. Fog or frost probable overnight.

Tuesday stays settled. Uncertain as to whether it will be cloudy or sunny – the latter a little more likely. Around 8’C.

Wednesday still settled – still uncertain on whether it will be cloudy or sunny at this stage. Perhaps a bit milder, say 10’C.

Thursday still the same, still uncertain on cloud amounts though perhaps sunny more likely than cloudy. Around 9’C.

Friday and next weekend – very low confidence – but most likely more of the same. There is instead a moderate chance of low pressure moving across with some rain.

Worth mentioning that my forecast for January was for a wet month – so it is completely wrong! My assumption has been that unsettled conditions would fairly quickly return, but this high pressure really doesn’t look like it is going anywhere.

Something has changed – the signal for a wet January was strong – unless I was misreading the signals. I cannot quite work out what has happened to change the expected weather pattern, and therefore I have no confidence in the return to unsettled conditions which I would have naturally assumed.

So I’m now at the “I don’t have a clue” stage for the rest of January.

Hmmm. Enjoy the fog.…

Monday 10th January 2022

High pressure will be in control this week. Calm, chilly, winter weather – some sun, some cloud and some fog/frost.

Thanks to Helena for the photograph.

Tonight will be cloudy as a weak weather front slips south-east. Some light rain and drizzle at first, some showery rain later in the night, around 7’C.

Tuesday sees high pressure close to our south-west, and it is this area of high pressure that will dominate our weather – there is another area of high pressure to our east, with a weather front stuck in the middle – over us.

Tuesday will therefore be cloudy with some occasional showery rain – dry for quite a bit of the time, showery rain more likely around dawn but there could be some at other points. 9’C. Cloud will clear south in the evening, mostly clear skies will follow – one or two fog patches but most areas escaping, a frost for most areas, down to around -2’C.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny. 7’C. Clear skies overnight for a time, fog forming more widely, though not everywhere. Down to around -2’C, though closer to 0’C where foggy – so frost for most.

Thursday starts foggy for many, though sunny in a few spots (though don’t be surprised if it becomes foggy as it shifts around). Generally fog will clear but will take some time, and in some spots may stay foggy/misty all day – in which case closer to 3’C. Those areas where fog clears will be closer to 6’C. Fog forming again in the evening and overnight in most places, frost possible, down to around -2’C.

Friday looks like it will take longer for fog to clear, though some uncertainty. In some places some afternoon sun – in others mist/fog will probably last all day, or most of it. Temperatures between 2’C and 5’C, depending on how long your fog lasts. Fog likely forms quickly in the evening (well…maybe it never cleared in the first place), and stays foggy overnight. Down to around -2’C.

Fog can be difficult to predict 36-48 hours away, let alone trying to predict it 108 hours in advance, so less confidence by the weekend.

More likely, Saturday sees fog slow to clear, with low cloud for most, most of the day once (if) fog clears. Likely quite cold, say 4’C, give or take. Probably foggy overnight, around 0’C.

Hints of a subtle change for Sunday, as high pressure drifts north/north-west a bit.

Probably foggy to start, then cloudy for most of the day – though confidence on details not especially high. Cold, around 4’C. The change in high pressure position would mean fog is less likely overnight.

Likely cold and dry to start next week – there might even be some sunshine.

And then either middle/end of next week likely transitioning to something more unsettled with low pressure systems edging in from the west or north/west – which I’d assume will last the rest of January and perhaps first few days of February. Temperatures varying around average, occasionally somewhat mild, occasionally somewhat cold.…

Thursday 6th January 2022

I guess changeable is the theme, but becoming drier as next week progresses.

Thanks to Richie for the photograph.

This evening sees showery rain clear around 8pm, clear spells and some cloud will follow for the rest of the night, just a small chance of a passing shower. Breezy and quite cold, down to around 2’C.

Friday sees us in a colder north-westerly flow.

Sunny spells in the morning, more in the way of cloud in the afternoon with a small chance of a shower – probably of rain but I wouldn’t rule out a wintry flavour. Cold and breezy, 4’C. Clear spells at first overnight with a frost, down to around 0’C. Temperatures picking up slowly as the night goes on, as cloud increases from the west, with showery rain from around 3/4am.

Saturday sees showery rain, mostly light or moderate in the morning, but some heavy rain likely for a time before it clears – some uncertainty on when it will clear, perhaps as early as 2pm, or towards 5pm – somewhere in between anyway, with the last 2-3 hours seeing some heavy bursts. Quite windy, and milder at 10’C. Breezy with clear spells overnight, down to around 1’C – probably no frost for most, but a close call.

Sunday looks pretty sunny. Some cloud at times, but plenty of sunshine. Colder, 6’C. A small chance of a shower late afternoon or during the evening. Clear spells at first overnight though cloud slowly thickening from the west – perhaps a bit of light rain overnight, 3’C.

Monday looks mostly cloudy and probably dry – a little patchy light rain at most. A bit of uncertainty on temperatures, though something milder at around 10’C more likely. Mostly cloudy overnight, some bits of light rain possible at times.

Tuesday is uncertain at this stage – we will be transitioning to a high-pressure dominated outlook, but there is a chance of a weak weather front stuck underneath. So at the moment, Tuesday could be sunny or cloudy/dry or cloudy/damp.

Wednesday should see high pressure start to dominate.

A bit of uncertainty on positioning at the moment – so details of whether it will be cloudy or sunny, mild or chilly, frost or no frost, fog or no fog – all that is still to be determined.

So for the rest of next week – dry, temperatures probably around average or slightly above. Uncertain on sunshine amounts, and fog/frost potential.

Uncertain by next weekend. The more likely outcome would be a continuation of such conditions, but with low confidence.

There is a chance of a short cold northerly the week after, possible wintry showers but more likely some frost (similar to the last couple of days).

Most likely fairly unsettled for the rest of January, with short dry/cold spells.…

Monday 3rd January 2022

A colder week this week after our short, unusually mild spell. Some rain, some sun, some frost – maybe even a wintry surprise.

Also I’d like to wish you all a happy new year. Let’s hope the weather is more interesting this year, and we actually get a bit more sunshine this year!

And thanks to Tina for the wonderfully bleak photograph.

Tonight will be fairly cloudy, down to around 6’C. Showers arriving from the north around or just before dawn.

Tomorrow sees colder air spread down from the north.

A band of showers will sink south during the morning, some heavy showers possible, perhaps a bit of sleet or wet snow mixed in but it should be mostly rain. Sunshine but colder air follows, 7’C at dawn but 4’C in the afternoon in a cold northerly wind. Clear spells overnight, probably a frost overnight with temperatures close to 0’C – though still windy.

Wednesday will be mostly sunny but cold, 5’C. A fairly sharp frost overnight, down to around -3’C, perhaps lower especially in more sheltered spots.

Thursday starts bright with hazy sunshine – though frosty too. Cloud will gradually thicken from the west, with outbreaks of rain from around 1/2pm. Rain clearing around 8/9pm (give or take), probably quite heavy for a short spell. Windy, 5’C. Clear spells overnight, some cloud, one or two passing showers possible and down to around 2’C.

Friday looks fairly sunny, breezy and cold. Some fair weather cloud and a smallish chance of a shower, perhaps of a wintry note. 5’C. Likely frosty overnight, though cloud starting to thicken by dawn. Down to around -1’C.

Saturday then sees another spell of rain crossing the country. Likely dry to start, rain roughly mid-morning to mid-afternoon, though that time could shift a bit. Windy and somewhat milder at around 8’C. Probably dry overnight, down to around 3’C though very give and take.

Sunday is still a bit uncertain. The more likely outcome is for it to start dry with rain later – either arriving in the afternoon or evening. Temperatures around 7’C, give or take.

Next week likely starts changeable, and probably milder.

High pressure does look like it will gradually build during next week so becoming predominantly dry from around mid-week. Uncertain at this stage whether it will be mild and cloudy, or cold and sunny with frost/fog potential – though mild and cloudy is the slight favourite.

I don’t see this high pressure system hanging around long, maybe a week tops, but we’ll see. The most likely outcome for the final third of January is a return to wet and windy weather, mostly normal to mild temperatures though the odd brief colder northerly with wintry showers will remain possible.

Unless something changes, I don’t foresee a significant cold and wintry spell during the rest of the winter. Of course, things do change and events do happen to cause such changes – like a sudden stratospheric warming event, so nothing can be ruled out.

Unless something changes (yes I repeat myself), I do expect high pressure to be dominant in February, though often positioned to our south this should mean a mostly average to mild month (and fairly dry and fairly cloudy) – but it is certainly possible that it could end positioned for a cold and frosty spell at times, though it isn’t especially likely.

The possibility of some early spring warmth in late February and at times in March is there. But this is a long way away!…

Monday 27th December 2021

Becoming very mild and rather wet.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

This evening sees further showery rain, clearing around 11pm ish, remaining cloudy overnight with the odd spot of light rain, with further showers arriving before/around dawn, possibly heavy. 10’C.

Tuesday starts with some sunny spells but also some heavy showers. Quickly clouding over with some patchy rain mid/late morning, mostly cloudy and mostly dry for the afternoon. 10’C and windy. Some clear spells at first, down to around 5’C but quickly clouding over from the south-west, with rain arriving around 3am, give or take.

By Wednesday we’ll be seeing this much milder air pushing up from the south.

The morning will see outbreaks of rain, some heavy. Mostly dry once the rain clears, perhaps a little sunshine, but notable mild, 15’C. Quite windy too. Mostly cloudy overnight, some disorganised bits of showery rain at times, fairly windy, 13’C.

Thursday remains in this very mild, cloudy flow. Some bits and pieces of mostly light rain, mostly in the morning as the focus for this will shift north as pressure builds from the south. Still fairly windy, 14’C, maybe 15’C. Cloudy overnight, some bits and pieces of rain at times, more so in the second half of the night. Windy, 12’C.

New Year’s Eve should actually see some sunshine. I know, sunshine in 2021 – feels like the cloudiest year ever to me. Sunshine amounts uncertain but at least some sunshine is likely, a tad less mild, 13’C and more breezy than windy. Probably cloudy for a good chunk of the night, a little light rain or drizzle possible at times, mild, 11’C.

New Year’s Day sees high pressure in charge, close to our south-east. Probably actually rather sunny again, some cloud possible at times and still fairly mild, around 12’C. Breezy too.

Uncertain for overnight and into Sunday, but the more likely outcome sees rain spreading across from the west – timing and other details uncertain, though still mild.

Next week looks changeable, with some rain at times, but some dry days too. Temperatures generally trending back down to normal, though some mild days still likely, some cooler days possible.

I don’t see any possibility of anything cold until 8th January at the earliest. And even then it is more a window of opportunity for a short/shortish cold spell rather than something I think has a reasonable chance of happening.

The latter half of January I expect to be mostly wet, windy and mild. It’s just that week 2 going into week 3 part that could offer something for cold weather fans…could.

Not sure when the next forecast will be – my Christmas Day will be on Thursday, so it will be whenever I get around to it, probably Friday or the weekend at some point.

Enjoy the rest of the festive season.…

Thursday 23rd December 2021

A wet Christmas it is.

The battle between colder air to our north-east and much milder but wetter air to the south-west, will take place over the Christmas period. Still some uncertainties in terms of details such as when it will rain, and what temperatures as these battles are difficult to forecast, but broadly the pattern is set now.

And in a week’s time, it almost certainly will be very mild.

A week ago I was pretty convinced that it would be a dry and cold Christmas – and yet we have the opposite. I’m not entirely sure what has caused such a dramatic pattern change from expectations, my suspicion is that the typhoon over the Philippines a week or so ago changed the pressure patterns, and hence downstream this is the knock-on effect.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

This evening and overnight will be mostly cloudy. A few clear spells at times earlier, but this will lead to mist and fog in places. Down to around 6’C.

Christmas Eve sees low pressure to our west trying to push in, though colder air to the north actually digs south a little.

It starts cloudy, some mist/fog patches though they will shift fairly quickly. A band of rain arrives in the afternoon, approximately 2pm, give or take, some heavy, perhaps very heavy. A bit of uncertainty as to how long it takes to push north as it will be pushing into the colder air which is trying (and ultimately about to fail) to push south – so around 4 hours of showery rain seems more plausible, but anything up to around 8 hours. Around 10’C. Generally cloudy overnight, the odd spot of light rain at times possible, 6’C.

Christmas Day (or just Saturday to me isolating at home on my own) sees the colder air nudging south a little. It will be cloudy – Friday’s band of rain to our north will sink south but also fizzle out – perhaps it will bring a little light rain. The next band of rain will arrive in the afternoon, timing uncertain though 2pm feels more likely, but as late as 5pm wouldn’t surprise. Likely showery and some heavy, it will continue well until the evening. 6’C and feeling colder. Rain slowly clearing overnight, 6’C.

Boxing Day is a bit uncertain, but broadly fairly cloudy to start, the odd showery bit of rain possible – probably some brighter spells later. Around 9’C.

Uncertain overnight. A new area of low pressure is going to approach, though at the moment it could head over France, or it could head over the south of England – so there could be a spell of heavy rain either overnight or into Monday, or it could remain dry, cloudy and possible foggy.

Monday’s forecast depends on what happens with this possible low pressure system, so there isn’t much I can say until that is resolved.

Tuesday, again uncertain, but the more likely outcome is cloudy with a bit of rain, but not likely too much. Around 11’C.

For Wednesday we should be seeing much milder air spread up from the south-west, as a strong area of high pressure builds over Spain and pushes north – oh for it to be July.

Likely windy with a band of rain at some point – timing unknown. But the story will be the mildness, around 14’C – perhaps even higher.

Thursday remains very mild, probably cloudy, perhaps some rain but unknown – less likely to rain than previous days.

Probably dry on New Year’s Eve, though it is a long time away – likely still very mild though. Possible somewhere in the UK might record the warmest ever New Year’s Eve – the record is 15.6’C set in 1901, in Great Yarmouth – would be somewhere north-east if it happens.

2022 likely starts very mild. Uncertain on any other weather conditions, though dry is slightly more likely than wet.

There is a chance of a cold and possible snowy easterly after the beginning of January, I rate it around a 30% chance and it would give a very notable 7 day (ish – very ish) cold spell if it occurs, but it is very early days, and lots needs to happen first. The kind of period would be somewhere between 5th January and 18th January, some section of that.

Otherwise January will be fairly mild, fairly wet and fairly windy.

Despite my Christmas being delayed and me therefore being slightly Grinch-like, I do still wish you all a pleasant Christmas – and if you don’t celebrate Christmas then I wish you a pleasant extended weekend. Well, unless you don’t celebrate Christmas and you work in retail or some other job without any time off in which case I wish you…joy.

I’ll either be back on Monday evening as usual, or perhaps Sunday evening if those little white sticks grant me permission to leave London before my 10 days are up.…

Tuesday 21st December 2021

A short update this week I’m afraid, partly because there is a huge amount of uncertainty from Christmas Day onwards, but also because I’ve finally succumbed to covid – yeah, great timing.

So I don’t have much energy. No sympathy required as many people have had it far worse, I trust that you wish me well as I do all of you – no doubt some of you have Christmas plans delayed, or worse.

Anyway, it will be brief.

Frosty tonight, down to around -2’C.

Hazy sunshine on Wednesday, cloud gradually thickening, cold, 5’C. A little showery rain in the evening.

Thursday cloudy, milder, some light rain at times, 10’C by the evening. Fog possible overnight.

Christmas Eve, mild, cloudy, some rain late afternoon/early evening, 10’C.

Christmas Day is where the fun, and the uncertainty starts. Cold air to the north is trying to push down, at the same time milder air, with weather fronts is trying to fully take control.

It looks like cold air will win out but how quickly (and then how long for) is the question.

Christmas Day does look like it will probably be wet, with some outbreaks of heavy rain. I’d suggest that there remains a 15% chance that by the evening the cold air could have enough influence to turn the rain to snow, but that does mean an 85% chance that it will stay as rain – it is borderline, but temperatures dropping only to around 4’C, unlikely to be sufficient for snow.

Boxing Day and Monday will remain on the cold side. Some rain probable on Boxing Day, with around a 25% chance of at least some sleet or snow. Monday looks drier.

Then probably cold and dry with overnight frosts is the theme for at least a couple of days, with unsettled and milder conditions for a short spell after (snow to rain event at first very possible), though timing uncertain, perhaps starting before NYE, perhaps shortly after.

However, I stress all of this, from Christmas Day onwards is subject to a high degree of uncertainty – there is a small chance of cold air not winning out on Christmas, and it just being mild and wet for a few days, likewise cold air may dig in further, and enhance the chance of heavy snow.

Hopefully I’ll be back to normal by Thursday evening and can give a better forecast…and hopefully things are clearer then too.…