Welcome to the winter weather forecast 2024/25 for Reading & Berkshire.

Firstly the usual caveats – seasonal forecasting is difficult, no seasonal forecast will ever be 100% correct, as it is bound to events on a local and global scale.

Seasonal forecasting is done mostly on a global level, and also thought of in monthly terms – for example, the background signals and long-range models could suggest higher than normal pressure is likely one month, but that wouldn’t stop one week or more being under low pressure, and wet.

So you should always expect any seasonal forecast as a rough guide at best, and remember that I’m not a professional – just an amateur forecaster with a half-decent grip on what models are suggesting, and a decent writing ability.

My autumn forecast was…alright…I picked some things out correctly, for example the greater chance of northerly flows than normal in November, but then I also picked out a wet start to November, and it was dry.

Also a massive thanks to those who sent photographs in, and more so to those who do on a regular basis.

Thanks to Clare who’s photograph I’ve chosen – a small charity donation will be sent as a thank you, please let me know to whom.

Background Signals

Winter always has more impactful background signals than any other season, but that never is the whole story – events do and will deviate from this.

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is currently in westerly phase, which increases the chance of westerly winds, and hence milder, wetter conditions.

La Niña, though not the strongest, does tend to increase the chance of northerly flows in autumn and early winter (as we have already seen).

Sea surface temperatures around most of the UK, and especially to the west, are warmer than normal – so this will mean temperatures more likely to be higher than normal. However, to our north, sea surface temperatures are colder than normal – so northerly flows may have more impact in terms of cold than normal.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is forecast negative for the start of winter, which can increase the chances of colder northerly flows.

Finally, the Madden Julien Oscillation, which is only helpful (questionably so in my view) over the more medium-term, currently is forecasted to end up in phases which favour cold weather later in December.

A sudden stratospheric warming event (SSW) cannot be discounted, which is where the stratosphere (the atmospheric layer above our troposphere) suddenly warms, which can break apart the polar vortex and cause cold weather to flood down in our direction – the Beast From The East in 2018 being the classic example.

However, we had 3 such events last winter, a once in 250 years occurence – the first two arguably gave us much milder and wetter conditions, as the cold air from the Arctic, if I remember correctly, flooded south but to our west – and hitting the (relatively) warm Atlantic ocean caused large areas of low pressure – and the mild/wet conditions. And also caused the latter part of my winter forecast to fail!

And the third happened in March, too late for wintry weather but then caused a cooler than normal spring.

I’ve read arguments that La Niña combined with a westerly QBO increases the chance of an SSW occurring over winter…which is what we have. But not sure what to make of that.

So quite a lot of different background signals, but definitely some patterns including increased chances of northerly flows in early winter – as such it is time to start the forecast.

December

December looks a very variable month, especially to start. It should settle down after the first week, with temperatures around normal or a little below, though some showers possible in the easterly flow. Frost/fog will be possible.

After mid-month, something more changeable looks more likely with further heavy rain and strong winds at times – chances of more named storms, though temperatures most of the time above average – short colder snaps still possible.

Towards Christmas and into the New Year period, colder northerly flows become more possible, though westerly flows could still dominate. Expect changeable conditions, wind and rain at times, some sunnier and colder days too. Again, quite a mix seems most likely, though perhaps veering towards dry more than wet.

Overall I expect above average rainfall, around or slightly below-average sunshine, around average temperatures.

Confidence level 80%.

January

January again looks a fairly mixed month. The start of the month has greater chances of drier and colder weather, before becoming unsettled once more. Northerly flows very possible, named storms very possible.

In the second half of the month, something milder and changeable seems more likely – some rain at times, but also some dry spells, if perhaps cloudy and dry.

Overall I expect around average rainfall, slightly below-average sunshine, and slightly above-average temperatures.

Confidence level 60%.

February

Suggestions for February see higher than normal pressure over Europe, so something milder and drier than normal seems the more likely general outcome for the first half of the month – though some weather fronts will likely get through to bring some rain, albeit more limited amounts.

More likely it stays mild or very mild in the latter half of February, with dry conditions more likely than wet.

A sudden stratospheric warming event would increase the chance of cold and dry for February, considerably…but this is impossible to know at this stage.

Overall I expect rainfall to be below average, sunshine around or slightly-above average, temperatures above average, though with some uncertainty towards the end.

Confidence level 50%.

Summary And Early Spring Thoughts

So a pretty mixed winter seems more likely, though not quite as wet as it has been with high pressure playing more of a role than it has the last 18 months or so. Any cold spells more likely in the first 6 weeks of winter, and those from the north.

Early signs for spring, assuming no sudden stratospheric warming, are for a much warmer and drier first half of spring. Oh do hurry up!…

And welcome to the rather delayed Autumn 2024 seasonal weather forecast for Reading & Berkshire – though it should broadly apply to much of southern England.

Let’s start with the usual caveat – seasonal forecasting is experimental, some of this forecast will be wrong. It is my best attempt at using background signals, long-range models, current patterns, and, well, vibes to establish a more likely route through the next 3 months.

Unexpected events can and do happen, and then throw off course the forecast.

Thanks also to Paul for the stunning photograph – a charity donation will be made to MS Society. Thanks to everyone who sent them in, and also to those sending them in for the usual twice-weekly posts – the forecast would be a lot more boring without them!

Background Signals

We are probably transitioning back into La Niña conditions, which would increase the chance of cooler north-westerly flows later in autumn.

The remnants of hurricanes can change our weather patterns when they recurve into the Atlantic, which adds uncertainly for September and to a lesser extent, October.

However the intertropical convergence zone has been further north than usual, which is thought to be hindering tropical storm development. I have no idea if this will continue.

Other than that, nothing really stands out as a background signal.

September

Well, September did start warm and unsettled, then went much cooler. That’s obviously not a forecast as I’m writing this on 12th September!

Warmer weather will quickly re-establish itself, with high pressure likely to build close to the north – allowing a warm easterly to develop. Sunshine amounts should be higher than normal, though some overnight low cloud feels likely on some days, which could take a while to clear.

Likewise in the final third of the month, low pressure may well develop to our south over Europe, with a chance of showers/thunderstorms moving north towards us at times.

Lower confidence by the end of the month, but something more unsettled and somewhat autumnal is more likely.

Overall rainfall amounts somewhat higher than average, sunshine amounts around average, temperatures somewhat higher than average.

Confidence level around 60%.

October

October looks likely to have quite a notable westerly flow. Possibly starting unsettled though more likely I think low pressure will become centred to the north of the UK, so we’ll tend to be dry much of the time in the south, relatively mild, sometimes sunny, perhaps even the odd warm day. Then occasional weather fronts bringing a bit of rain every 2/3/4 days – that kind of broad pattern. Windy at times.

Later in October, the more likely outcome seems to be that low pressure will be tracking further south, so areas of rain more frequent, heavier and more persistent, windy also – but still there should be some dry days too.

Overall rainfall amounts around average, sunshine amounts around average, temperatures slightly higher than average.

Confidence level around 50%.

November

During November, I expect the jetstream to be pushed further south, bringing some wet and windy/very windy conditions at first in November, but also a chance of some colder weather in between areas of rain.

In the latter half of November, more likely the jetstream is to our south and we see broadly drier, sunnier and colder weather – northerly (ish) flows more likely than normal, overnight frosts and perhaps wintry showers.

Overall rainfall amounts around average, sunshine amounts around average and temperatures slightly below average.

Confidence level around 50%.

Summary And Early Winter Thoughts

So a pretty mixed autumn – some wet spells but also some notably sunny periods too. I’m not foreseeing a constant washout of an autumn.

I’ve probably rushed the research of this compared to normal, so I’m a bit less confident, plus background signals seem pretty weak, but it will do for now.

Maybe in a few years, the AI models which are giving me increased confidence in the 7-10 day range, will be able to help with longer range forecasting…will be interesting!

Early winter thoughts are for a drier than normal winter – temperatures very dependent on positioning of high pressure systems, but assuming La Niña does develop, then cold spells very possible in December, a milder trend more likely in January/February but cold snaps still possible…of course, it is winter.

Full daily forecast tomorrow.…

Summer has officially started, and it is time to issue my summer weather forecast 2024. There’s even a bit of sunshine today.

Usual disclaimer first, seasonal forecasting is experimental, nobody can tell you exactly what the weather will do in 42 day’s time. All I can offer is a broad based solution, based on background signals, recent weather patterns, long range weather models and a bit of guestimation.

Some of this will be right (well, hopefully!), some of it will be wrong. The aim is to get more broadly right than wrong – but one can have all the confidence one likes about the weather 3 months away, from strong background signals, weather models, etc – then an event happens that changes all that.

February this year was the perfect example – almost all background signals pointed to it being colder and drier than normal, weather models pointed that way too, the Met Office expected it, and still talked about it in February turning cold and dry. Yet it was ridiculously wet and mild…probably caused by the sudden stratospheric warming event in January, which in themselves normally cause cold and dry conditions.

My spring forecast had unusually low confidence behind it, and was pretty mixed in terms of success – arguably April/May turned out closer to the forecast than March. It was warmer and wetter than normal across all 3 months – I didn’t really pick that out, alas.

So take this with as much a pinch of salt as you want.

Also thanks to Debs for the photograph…had probably 10 that I wanted to use, so thanks to everyone that sent them in, but this is the closest to my forecast.

Background Signals

Background signals are less effectual in summer than winter, and there isn’t much to go on.

El Niño is fading into neutral ENSO conditions for summer, which I think favours reasonable weather in the UK, though with limited impact. We may transition to La Niña in August, but again I wouldn’t expect it to have much bearing on our weather.

North Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain well above normal, I think record levels – this will both increase heat when high pressure is in control, and rainfall intensity when low pressure is in control – especially if low pressure originates further south.

It’s also expected to be a busier than normal hurricane season – these are wild card events which can change the course of our weather patterns.

June

June looks fairly mixed. There is a fairly strong signal for high pressure to both dominant to our west, and also low pressure to our north/north-east, so this would suggest north-westerly flows more likely than normal for June.

The month starts fine and fairly warm. Towards the first weekend, it may become somewhat cooler and showery, though low certainty on this aspect. Probably not huge amounts of showers.

From then we likely alternate between cooler, cloudier spells with some showers and perhaps spells of wind/rain, and somewhat warmer spells with some sunshine.

During the latter third/quarter of June, a trend to something warmer but still with chances of showers – any showers heavier by this stage.

Overall I expect around average temperatures or even slightly below (rare in our warming world, if so), slightly below-average sunshine, and around average rainfall.

Confidence level 60%.

July

Fairly weak signals for July, but the beginning part of the month would be more likely to see further mixed conditions, some short hot/very hot spells mixed in, interspersed with heavy showers/thunderstorms on other days, and some fine warm/very warm days.

The latter half more likely drier, temperatures generally very warm or hot – though some short unsettled spells likely too – the mixed theme likely continues.

Overall I expect above average temperatures, around average sunshine, and slightly above average rainfall (though will depend on localised downpours…which will skew this).

Confidence level 50%.

August

What signals there are do suggest higher than normal pressure for August – which if this comes to pass (if!) may make a change from many recent summers.

Broadly still likely a mixture of conditions, many very warm/hot days, but also some wet/showery days as low pressure systems are triggered by the heat over Europe.

Suggestions that the latter part of August is a bit more of a westerly flow, and generally more settled, less hot, with reasonable sunny spells and only occasional weather fronts.

Overall I expect above average temperatures, slightly above average sunshine, and…well…rainfall totals could be anything depending if you catch a torrential downpour or two, so maybe days with rain falling is a better measure, and that to be below average.

Confidence level 50%.

Summary And Autumn

So…not bad. A pretty mixed but hotter than normal summer would be the general headline. But as I mentioned, the signals are weak, and I’ve been less successful with seasonal forecasts in recent years than I used to be. As always, take any weather forecast more than 5 day’s out with a huge bucket of salt.

Early suggestions for autumn are for it to be warmer, drier (!) and sunnier than normal, at least for September and October, with hot spells still probable.

Feel free to share this Summer Weather Forecast 2024, and enjoy your summer!…

Spring has started, but its still pretty cold. Welcome to my weather forecast for Spring 2024.

First off, the usual caveat. Seasonal forecasting is difficult, if not impossible. It is mostly about studying background signals, previous year’s weather patterns, pattern matching and expectations of future background signals.

Events scupper this, as does a lack of understanding as to how conflicting background signals may work against each other. It’s pretty much best guesses.

This February was a great example. My forecast was for a colder and drier month than normal, based on background signals overwhelmingly pointing to this outcome being more likely, and also the chance of a sudden stratospheric warming being high, in my view.

Except we had the wettest and warmest February on record. What happened? Well, I assume events – it is often difficult to correlate what signal/event caused weather conditions, though I suspect the sudden stratospheric warming event counted against this time – whilst many lead to cold weather, some actually lead to milder conditions, and this SSW event was unusual in that it reflected back into the stratosphere and powered the stratospheric vortex, and hence we went into wet and mild overdrive. At least, I think that is the cause.

All of which is to say that some of this will be wrong, perhaps very wrong. But hopefully enough will be reasonably inline to make it valuable.

For December and January, my winter forecast behaved reasonably well – had February gone to expectations then I would have been very happy! Also I think I outlined future conditions in my twice-weekly forecasts with good levels of accuracy, quite often the pattern for 1-2 weeks ahead was clearer than normal. And I did drop the idea for a cold/dry February (or at least it turning so) earlier than the professionals did. So I’m content with my ongoing forecasts, if not the seasonal.

I am considering stopping doing these seasonal outlooks, because I question the value, especially when they go so off-course like February does. Feedback welcome – I’m not just looking for positive platitudes!

Finally thanks to Sarah for the photograph – a small donation has been made to The Brooke, as a thank you.

Background Signals

There’s always less influence from background signals in spring.

However, there is likely to be a third sudden stratospheric warming event in early March, or strong and early final warming of the stratospheric vortex – whatever it is classed as, this will increase the chance of easterly and/or northerly winds later in March, and into April – and also push the jetstream south.

It’s slightly annoying that I’m doing the forecast now, as in another week or so, after this stratospheric warming event, things will be clearer. So there’s more uncertainty in this forecast than normal.

El Niño should also increase the chance of cold and dry conditions, at least in March, though that was the case for February too and look what happened.

Easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation should reduce the strength of westerly winds, and increase the chances of easterly flows.

Sea surface temperatures are likely to remain at record highs in the Atlantic, and my reading of this is that there will be more moisture in south-westerly flows, but also much more warmth potential to tap into – depending on if/when high pressure builds over Spain.

March

The sudden stratospheric warming event probably puts hopes for an early spring to bed, but not necessarily.

Most likely, March starts on the cold side, veers mildish then colder, showery days tending to drier days. Through the mid-month period easterly (ish) winds seem likely at times, which should make it colder at times, but also rain and milder weather will be pushing up from the south-west too. Where they meet, snow is possible – but chances do reduce of battleground snow in March, especially down here. A small chance of snow – nothing more.

Later in March, easterly or northerly winds are more likely, so conditions generally on the chilly side with overnight frost probable at times. Otherwise some sunshine, some light/moderate showers, perhaps wintry and some outright cloudy/chilly days. Occasionally, milder and wetter conditions will push up from the south-west.

Quite a mix really – and it will depend on where exactly high pressure sets up to our north (assuming it does) – so an outright wet month is plausible instead, but also a dry and cold month is too. My forecast is for a mixture of the two, with quite a bit of fluctuation.

Overall I expect temperatures to be slightly below-average, rainfall around average and sunshine slightly below-average.

Confidence level around 40% – lower than normal, due to the expected sudden stratospheric warming event in early March.

April

Assuming the stratospheric warming event happens, and the outcome is blocking highs to our north, then I expect April to start fairly chilly with showers or rain at times, with northerly or north-easterly winds being more likely than normal. Overnight frosts still very possible.

There is a weak signal for high pressure to build over Spain in the second half of April, perhaps slightly earlier, so I’m going with that, and suggesting that will increase the chance of warmth (finally!) in the second half of April. Unlikely to be an extended warm spell – likely mixed with some weather fronts bringing rain on a few days, some heavy showers on other days – but some warmer, sunny-ish days too.

Overall I expect temperatures to be around average – though a contrast between below-average to start the month, above-average to end, rainfall slightly above-average and sunshine around average.

Confidence level around 40% again.

May

Background signals really drop off here, and long-range models are conflicting with each other, so in a forecast with lower confidence than normal, I’m even lower on confidence for May.

My best suggestion is for the warmer than normal end of April to continue into the beginning of May, with some very pleasant days – though also a few interruptions – some showers, some occasional weak weather fronts bringing more cloud and rain, with fresher air following.

The latter part of May perhaps looks more unsettled for a time (possibly warm/humid still), though with a trend to much warmer and drier conditions by the end of the month.

Confidence level of 20% – unusually low.

Early summer thoughts and summary

So a mixed spring looks more likely, and not an especially joy-filled spring – with some colder and wetter conditions early. Though with the proviso that uncertainty is much higher than normal.

Early signals for summer do point to a drier and hotter summer being more likely than normal, particularly June.…

Welcome to my autumn weather forecast for 2023.

First thing to note, as always, is that seasonal forecasting remains experimental. Whilst my forecast for June was good, and for August was respectable – for July I predicted a hot month. Aha. Though at least I thought there would be some rain, albeit of a thundery variety rather than Atlantic systems.

So, some of this forecast will be wrong – due to events, it is impossible to give accurate long-range forecasts, but you can give a general guide based on current weather patterns, background signals, etc.

I’m not sure what went wrong in July – did I misread the models? Perhaps but so did every other forecaster who I take notice of, in that case. I know there were unusual plunges of cold air into North America late June, which fired up the jetstream – and then there was some really anomalously warm waters off the coast of North America, which likely gave low pressure systems their oomph this summer.

That’s my working theory on what went wrong anyway.

So whatever I say here, take with a huge pinch of salt.

Thanks to Sarah for the superb photograph, and to all those that sent in – there were a few particularly excellent ones to choose from.

Background Signals

El Niño is still developing and is probably going to be a strong event. I’m not sure that it has too much effect on the UK weather patterns in autumn, perhaps a slightly increased chance of westerly flows later on.

Sea surface temperatures are still warmer than normal around the UK, which increase the chance of warmer than normal temperatures over the UK.

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation is now in easterly mode – I’ve seen some people on weather forums blame that for our summer weather, but I’m not buying it. Though perhaps it can increase the chance of blocking highs or easterly flows during autumn.

As always, hurricanes/tropical storms and their remnants can affect our weather and add extra uncertainty, especially in September.

September

Speaking of hurricanes, Franklin is the major cause of our hot start to September, pushing high pressure east and allowing us to tap into continental warmth/heat.

So an increasingly hot and sunny start to September, very possible that the highest temperature of the year is recording during September, though I think we’ll stay short of the UK all-time September maximum – which is 35.6’C. Some warm nights too, though some early morning mist/fog/low cloud in places.

Towards the middle third, there will be (small) chances of thundery showers before the heat gradually faces, and by around mid-month or just after, we should be in something more changeable – perhaps briefly unsettled.

In the latter part of the month, probably some variation with some showers, but a return to warm and dry looks more likely overall. Bear in mind that hurricanes/tropical storms far to our west add uncertainty to this.

Overall I expect well above-average temperatures, above-average sunshine, and below-average rainfall – unless you catch a particularly heavy downpour during mid-month.

Confidence level of 85%.

October

Signals are weaker for October though there is a fairly notable signal for high pressure close to the east of the UK.

A dry start may give way to a spell of more unsettled weather into the first half of October, perhaps some very heavy, showery rain at times, and quite windy. Likely mild and occasionally warm.

In the latter half of October, it seems more likely that the high to our east will push west somewhat, meaning rain stays to our west most of the time, and it should generally be dry, mild with some overnight mist/fog.

Overall I expect above-average temperatures, around average sunshine and around or slightly below-average rainfall.

Confidence level of 60%. The main risk is that the high pressure block is further east and low pressure systems get stuck over the UK – bringing a wetter month than I expect.

November

November I think will more likely start dry with high pressure close by. Overnight frosts with some morning mist/fog patches possible. Some sunny days, some cloudy days, temperatures around normal for the time of year.

During the latter part of November, the jetstream should pick up and we’ll have a more westerly flow – some rain at times from weather fronts though I suspect the bulk of the heavy rain and strong winds will be towards Scotland. Generally mild/very mild under such a set-up. Uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts.

Overall I expect slightly above-average temperatures, around average sunshine, below-average rainfall.

Confidence level of 50%.

Overall and Early Winter Thoughts:

So drier and warmer than normal for autumn, is what I expect. We shall see!

Early thoughts for winter are mostly for a mild and dry winter with a strong signal for higher than normal pressure over Europe.

I wouldn’t preclude a cold spell, and there will be some rain at some point, but overall drier and milder than normal seems the most likely outcome – albeit it’s 3 months away!…

Welcome to my Summer Weather Forecast 2023. I think you’ll like it.

Some of this forecast will be wrong. That is the case for all seasonal forecasts (unless a forecaster gets lucky). We can have some confidence on general trends, but picking out short-term features or getting the timing right of changes, becomes impossible after a couple of weeks. And then the general trends can change – what you think was likely, then gets disturbed by a major event somewhere in the world, which then adjusts the jetstream, etc, etc.

But hopefully I can give a reasonable guide.

I’m fairly happy with my spring forecast. It was cold to start March, and wet to end as I thought – though wetter than I expected. April I predicted average temperatures, slightly above average rainfall and slightly below average sunshine – which was broadly the case. May I thought we’d be in an easterly flow, which did dominate and still does into June, but low pressure was further south than I expected – I had expected it to be a bit closer and hence warmer with showers for the latter half.

Thanks to everyone that sent a photograph in – my choice is Dave’s with a gloriously sunny sky, though with hints of showers to come.

Background Signals

There isn’t really a lot to talk about, though the key factor is extreme temperatures don’t have the same base as they did last year, as the soil moisture profile is higher over Europe, which should just temper the possibility of extreme temperatures.

However, on the flip side, sea surface temperatures are higher, if not much higher, across much of the eastern Atlantic, from Spain/Portugal, all the way through to Ireland, which I’d suggest makes hot weather a little more likely.

It is contested, but personally I believe that winter sudden stratospheric warming events have an imprint into summer months, especially late season SSWs, like we had, and increase the propensity of blocking highs to our north (exactly as has happened in recent weeks). This doesn’t always lead to glorious summer weather for us (2021 for example) but can lead to drier, summer and warmer/hotter weather, depending on exactly where high pressure situates.

I struggle a bit to understand the atmospheric angular momentum theory, but if I understand correctly, the current positive and predicted strongly positive phase, should lead to high pressure to our east, low to our west – a hot but sometimes thundery set-up, down the line in future weeks. I stress that I don’t really understand this that well though.

The other factor is the developing El Niño, which hasn’t occurred yet, but is likely to be confirmed during the summer. It doesn’t have as much impact here as elsewhere in the world (at least as far as we know), but maybe we can infer a slightly greater chance of showers later in the season, at a push. But even that, depends on how strong El Niño becomes, and we don’t know.

All in all, background signals seem to point more to a hotter summer than normal. Though I think long-term models and predicted pressure patterns are more important for this season…and they also point to hotter than normal weather.

An attempt at some details:

June

High pressure dominates the start of June, some cooler and cloudy mornings, but generally sunny and warm afternoons. This changes around 10th June to a more south-easterly flow, with temperatures on the up, very warm or quite hot, but also some thundery downpours in the mix – potentially quite severe in places, but also the potential to miss everything and just enjoy varying amounts of quite hot sunshine.

After mid-month, temperatures generally staying very warm – a few less warm days possible, some quite days also possible, but broadly very warm, sunny spells – a few days likely featuring some heavy, thundery showers, perhaps even a day or two of heavy, thundery rain spreading up from the south, but overall plenty of very pleasant weather is the more likely general outcome.

Overall I expect a warmer than average month and sunnier than normal average. Low confidence on rainfall totals, as it will depend on if you catch any particularly torrential downpours, so perhaps best to suggest more dry days than average.

Confidence levels around 80% – main uncertainty is over whether the mid-month thundery showers turn into a more widespread low pressure system.

July

July looks to see high pressure close to our east or north as the dominant pressure pattern, which means plenty of hot, sunny weather is likely.

Perhaps during the first part of the month, we see high pressure more centred to the north/north-east, which will lead to it generally being very warm/quite hot, though with occasional thundery downpours for us in the south – there is a signal for a wetter than normal summer over Spain/France, so I’d expect we’ll import thunderstorms or at least some instability on occasion from continent.

During the middle and second half of the month is when the hottest part of the summer is more likely, with high pressure more likely to be to our east – low to our west, and depending on where the low is, those Iberian heat-pump scenarios similar to last year (and most summers but last year was notably so) will be more likely – so short very hot spells followed by short unsettled, possibly thundery spells, followed by fine weather – is the more likely general pattern.

Generally the signal for rainfall is higher in the south of the UK than the north, so those who like their holidays in Scotland may approve this year.

Overall for July, I expect above-average temperatures, slightly above-average sunshine and around the average amount of days with rain falling – with rainfall totals dependent on how intense any downpours in your local area are.

Confidence level 75%. I wouldn’t rule out it being the hottest July ever overall – but without the hottest day being recorded. 37’C or so with the “perfect” set-up seems plausible, but 40’C like last year seems too much of a stretch…as it stands.

August

Weaker signals for August, but overall I think the balance for the first half of the month sees more very warm/hot sunny days, though likely some days in the warm with showers kind of theme – the hotter days may also have some thundery downpours too.

Low pressure may be a bit closer to our south-west for the latter month, this bringing more southerly flows – so some hot and humid days, but also some wet days, or at least some thundery downpours. Pretty low confidence though.

Overall for August, I expect above-average temperatures, around average or slightly-below average sunshine, and slightly above-average rainfall.

Confidence level 40%.

Summary And Autumn Thoughts

So, a hot summer but with an increased chance of thunderstorms, I think would be the headline.

Of course, I could be totally wrong. And things change unexpectedly. We shall see.

An early look at autumn currently suggests a warmer but wetter than normal September, and a warmer and drier than normal October/November.

No point in thinking about winter until we know how strong El Niño will be, as that can have an effect on our winter.

Enjoy your summer!…

Welcome to my Spring weather forecast 2023, for Reading and the surrounding areas.

Firstly a reminder that seasonal weather forecasting remains experimental and probably always will be – however there are normally general trends that look more likely on a seasonal basis, especially in the 1-2 month timeframe.

Some of this forecast will be wrong. My winter forecast wasn’t bad – December was pretty accurate, as was the first half of January and latter half of February – though there was a good 3-4 weeks that I expected to be wet, that were actually dry. I don’t think I saw any seasonal forecast suggesting February would be dry – and I think I read that it was the driest for 30 years.

Also thank you to everyone that sent photographs in, even if half of them didn’t have any weather in them! Thanks to Isabel for the photograph – do drop me a message so I know which charity to donate to.

Background Signals

The main background signal is the sudden stratospheric warming event that started in the middle of February, and we have just had another bout of warming up in the stratosphere. This greatly increases the chance of colder flows from northerly and/or easterly directions, and could impact on and off for around 8 weeks.

We still have La Niña, which I think can increase the chance of westerly flows in March – though this goes against the SSW, so, hmmm, not sure on this. There are hints of El Niño developing towards summer, but this shouldn’t impact spring.

The MJO currently is going into phase 7/8 at a high amplitude, which from my understanding increases the chance of colder flows from northerly and/or easterly directions – but maybe the SSW has impacted the MJO anyway?

March

March is very much expected to start on the cold side, snow falling is very possible, overnight frosts likely at times – though sunny spells during the days also, which with the strengthening sunshine at this time of year means any settling snow shouldn’t last too long.

Towards mid-month, milder and wetter weather will try to push up from the south-west, and where this hits the cold air, there could be heavy, disruptive snow – exactly where the battleground will be is uncertain – it is always more likely to be further north than us, but we are certainly in the game. But likewise, maybe low pressure systems don’t quite get this far north, the cold weather stays and the heavy snow ends up in northern France.

If the snowy battleground is much further north, say Scotland (not especially likely), then we may sneak a very mild day or two.

For the latter part of the month, I expect the colder air to move back south at times, perhaps easterly winds setting in – at this point rain will be more likely than sleet/snow, but wintry showers could still be mixed in, overnight frosts still possible. Temperatures sometimes around average, sometimes below average.

Overall I expect below average temperatures, around average rainfall and around average sunshine.

80% confidence.

April

For the first half of April, I still think we’ll be seeing the hangover of the SSW event, with high pressure to our north, and low pressure either to our south or over the south of the UK.

This means generally fairly cool conditions, with rain or showers at times – an outside chance of some wintry showers, and frost still possible on any clear nights.

The second half of the month has much weaker signals, but I’d favour something a bit drier with some warmish sunshine at times, but still some heavy showers on some days.

Overall I expect around average temperatures, slightly above average rainfall and slightly below average sunshine.

70% confidence.

May

May I still think will have high pressure to our north and low pressure to our south – though by this time of year an easterly flow tends to be warm rather than cold, as the continent will be warming up.

So a warmer than normal month overall but also a showery month – low pressure probably close enough at times for spells of general rain, but more likely the month will be predominantly warm/very warm, sunny spells but with heavy/thundery showers quite often.

Overall I expect above average temperatures, above average rainfall (though this assumes some of the showers being very heavy) and around average sunshine.

60% confidence.

Early Signs For Summer

At this stage I’d suggest that a repeat of last year’s 40’C is unlikely, due to there being more rain over Spain this spring, and hence soil and sea surface temperatures probably lower than last year.

However, I still think hot and therefore heatwave conditions more likely than normal, just not quite to that extreme – particularly June and July.

August maybe more showery, especially if El Niño becomes a force.…

Welcome to my Autumn 2022 weather forecast.

Finally it’s time to cool down after a boiling hot summer – I think summer 2022 will go down in history as one of the best ever summers, assuming you count sunshine and heat as “best”.

Regular readers will be aware that seasonal forecasting is fraught with huge amounts of challenges, I hope to get the main themes right, and more details right than wrong – but sometimes I get it completely wrong.

Thankfully my summer 2022 forecast was pretty good – including picking up the heatwave potential for the middle of July and suggesting “some unusually hot weather”. August wasn’t so well-forecasted, but there were very conflicting signals when I wrote the forecast, and I stressed the high levels of uncertainty. Once we got into July, I was pretty confident that August would see more hot and sunny weather.

And that is a difficulty – a certain type of weather might be more probable in 3 month’s time, in my view, but then actual weather events between times change my expectations. So do take this forecast with a good bucket of salt.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph – a donation of £15.00 has been made to Readifood as a token of my appreciation – and thank you to everyone who sends in photographs. I know I don’t always reply, but I do appreciate them.

Right…action.

Background signals

Firstly, sea surface temperatures are notably higher than usual around the UK, so this increases the chances of warmer than normal weather this autumn.

La Niña continues, and this tends to increase the chances of high pressure close to the west of the UK in late autumn.

The Atlantic hurricane season was expected to be busier than normal, though so far is not, and ex-hurricanes (or tropical storms) can affect previously-expected weather patterns, depending on how they interact with the jetstream. And they increase uncertainty, mostly for September.

September

September starts unsettled, with low pressure close to the west of the UK, bringing warmth, some humidity but also plenty of heavy/very heavy showers, possibly with some thunder. Some warm sunshine/hazy sunshine in between though.

The middle of the month is more uncertain, due to some Atlantic hurricanes/tropical storms far to our west. My current expectation is for a short dry spell, perhaps a little on the cool side, followed by something warmer but wetter once more. A brief hot spell cannot be ruled out during this period.

Towards the end of the month, a reversion back to what we had at the beginning feels more likely, some dry/sunny warm/very warm days mixed in but plenty of showers, and possibly some general rain too. A trend to it being drier towards the very end of the month.

Overall I’m expecting above-average rainfall (the shock!), above-average temperatures and somewhat below-average sunshine.

Confidence level 70% – though lower for mid-month.

October

October looks a much drier month, with the Azores high often building across. It likely becomes cooler, perhaps a bit below-average for a while, with north-westerly or maybe weak northerlies at times. Also quite cloudy, though some sunshine – and some chilly nights. The odd weak weather front but nothing too much expected in the way of rain.

Suggestions that the second half will be warmer than normal, with high pressure stronger over Europe and more of a south-westerly flow – though this likely means at least some rain/showers at times, though I still think drier than normal overall.

Overall for the month, I’m expecting below-average rainfall, slightly above-average temperatures and around average sunshine.

Confidence level around 70% again.

November

For November I’m still expecting high pressure to be dominant close to our south and especially to our west, which means cooler north-westerly/northerly flows more likely than normal – not too dissimilar to the last two Novembers.

So some overnight frosts and chilly but sunny days. But also some areas of rain/showers pushing down at times, from a fairly active jetstream.

Suggestions that the low pressure may set up close to the south-east at times in the latter half of November, a weak suggestion at the moment, but this kind of set-up could bring a wetter than normal end, and colder than normal – perhaps even some wintriness.

Overall I’m expecting slightly above-average rainfall, slightly below-average temperatures and around average sunshine.

Confidence level around 60% – bit of an unusual signal for the end of November so a bit wary there.

Winter Thoughts

Clearly winter is a long way away, though it is looming – perhaps more than most seasons, given the energy bills.

Early suggestions are that December is on the dry side, with a mixture of mild and cold spells.

January and February currently look more likely to be on the wet and mild side.

Well, that’s all. Remember – some of this will be wrong. The perils of long-term weather forecasting. But hopefully more is right than wrong.

If you want a summary – then a warm and wet September, a dry October and a mixed though chilly November.…