Colder for the weekend, milder for Christmas, a bit of rain, a bit of sun and perhaps even a flake of snow.

It could definitely be worse.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

The general picture sees high pressure to the south, low pressure to the north, and we are in a westerly flow. Pretty standard really.

Friday morning starts pleasant with spells of hazy sunshine. Cloud will thicken during the morning with some patchy rain in the afternoon – not amounting to much, though the odd heavyish burst late afternoon before it clears away. Around 8’C and breezy. Clear skies for a time overnight, though cloud thickening again later. Down to around 3’C.

Saturday starts cloudy as another fairly weak weather front crosses. Some patchy mostly light rain around, the odd heavyish burst possible. Some sunny spells possible from late morning onwards, still the odd splash of rain possible, but it gradually become drier and sunnier (if hazy) as the afternoon goes on. Briefly milder, reaching around 12’C and also rather windy. Colder air spreading down overnight once more, down to around 3’C. Still quite windy, and a mixture of clear skies, some cloud and perhaps a shower or two – which should be of rain, but not impossible to see a wintry mix.

Sunday will be a cold day in a strong north-westerly wind. Sunny at times, but the wind will be strong enough to push wintry showers quite far inland, more likely falling as rain or sleet – but snow or hail possible, at least in the morning hours. Reaching around 6’C but feeling colder in the strong wind. A chilly night but probably too much wind for a frost, down to around 3’C.

Monday will be a chilly day but the wind will fade and there will be sunshine for much of it, though increasingly hazy as the afternoon goes on. Around 6’C. Bits and pieces of light rain in the evening and overnight, and temperatures ticking up a bit as milder air arrives, say 8’C.

For Christmas Eve we have high pressure to the south asserting more influence again. Yet another “if only it was summer” set up.

A mostly cloudy day, some bits of light rain possible at times, but also some sunny breaks probable. Mild, around 12’C. Most likely fairly cloudy overnight, around 9’C.

Christmas Day will more likely be on the cloudier side of the spectrum, though I wouldn’t rule out a sunnier day. Mild, around 11’C.

Boxing Day looks similarly calm – more likely to be on the cloudier side of the spectrum, if not outright cloudy, but again not possible to rule out a sunnier day. Around 9’C.

Calm and settled conditions are likely for Friday and next weekend, cloud amounts uncertain though something on the cloudier side of the spectrum more likely than not. Should we have clear skies at night, then fog/frost possible, but again, cloudy skies more likely than clear skies.

Broadly this theme should persist well into January, high pressure often over the south of the UK, leading to settled conditions for much of the time, often cloudy, probably mild at times.

Some variations to the theme as high pressure shifts around, short cold spells, some weather fronts, etc – but settled and fairly cloud conditions should be the main trend for the next few weeks.

Next forecast will either be Monday or Tuesday next week.

I wish you all a pleasant weekend – I shall hopefully be getting over this really stinking cold/bug/covid that has knocked me out this week, ready to enjoy Christmas. At least my shopping is done!…

More gloom to come, though some variations on the theme.

Photograph comes from me on a dreary, drizzly morning the other day.

The general set-up is one where we are in-between influences – our current high pressure slipping away to the east, low pressure to our north and south, and the next high pressure to our west. Meteorological no-man’s land.

So Friday remains cloudy, dull with drizzle at times. A chance of an occasional glimpse of sunshine. Pretty chilly, 5’C. Mostly cloudy with bits and pieces of light rain or drizzle overnight, 5’C.

Saturday starts cloudy with some bits of light rain. But this clears south-east as a north-westerly breeze picks up – and there will be some sunshine from roughly midday onwards. Probably still some cloud, the sun perhaps hazy – but some sunshine at least. 7’C. Clear-ish skies at first but cloud thickening as the night goes on, down to around 3’C at first but picking up a bit later.

Sunday is back to cloudy, again perhaps a spot of light rain at times. Cannot rule out a bit of sunshine at times though, more likely in the morning. Much milder than it has been, around 12’C and breezy. Mostly cloudy overnight, the odd bit of light rain/drizzle and around 9’C.

Monday sees high pressure now centred over France – a heat-lover’s dream were it summer.

Some uncertainty on cloud amounts, more likely on the cloudier side of the spectrum with limited sunshine, but I’m not especially confident – there’s a small chance of a much sunnier day instead. Around 12’C with a bit of a breeze. Most likely cloudy overnight, around 8’C.

Tuesday most likely is cloudy, or mostly so – weather fronts are likely to be pushing in by the end of the day so the chance of some bits of rain later in the day will increase, and becoming quite windy too. Around 10’C. Cloudy with some showery rain overnight, around 10’C – and windy.

Most likely Wednesday will be cloudy with some rain at some points in the day, around 11’C and most likely windy too.

For Thursday and Friday, a north-westerly flow looks more likely. So temperatures back down around normal, say 8’C, windy, some sunshine, perhaps some showers at times.

With something broadly similar to that next weekend being more likely.

Any chance of a White Christmas? Well, it’s not possible to rule it out, but I’d give a chance of snow on Christmas Day no higher than a 2% chance as it stands. Frost around an 8% chance.

More likely we’ll be in a mild westerly flow.

Have a good weekend…I have to brave Oxford Street tomorrow to finish the Christmas shopping…yuck.…

The storm has gone and boring is back. Fairly cold, fairly dry and mostly cloudy this week.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

So the general picture to start the week sees the remnants of Storm Darragh towards Italy, and high pressure is building over the north of the UK – which should last in place until the weekend, if not longer.

Today will be mostly cloudy, some occasional bits of light rain, some sunny breaks also. Feeling chilly in the north-easterly wind, around 7’C. Cloudy overnight, the odd bit of light rain possible, around 6’C.

Tuesday will be mostly cloudy and mostly dry – bar the odd bit of light rain/drizzle. Around 6’C and still feeling rather chilly in the north-easterly wind. Mostly cloudy and mostly dry overnight, around 4’C.

Wednesday will again be cloudy all day, perhaps a little sunshine in the afternoon. 6’C in an easterly breeze. Mostly cloudy overnight though a few clear breaks possible – perhaps some drizzle by dawn, around 3’C.

Thursday again looks mostly cloudy, perhaps a bit of sunshine at times, and also a greater chance of some showers which should be on the light side of the spectrum. Around 7’C in fairly light winds. Probably cloudy overnight, around 5’C.

Friday probably will be cloudy all day once more, a chance of some light rain/drizzle at times, and temperatures roughly around 6’C. Perhaps less cloud overnight – which means a chance of frost/fog, though low confidence at this stage.

For the weekend, our area of high pressure slips towards south-east Europe, but a new area is waiting to the west.

Details still a bit sketchy for the weekend, but current thinking is that Saturday may have a weak weather front brining cloud and some patchy rain – though clearer skies once it has cleared. And temperatures around 7’C. Frost possible overnight.

Sunday more likely to see sunshine, or hazy sunshine – depending on how close weather fronts are to our north.

Aforementioned weather fronts will arrive at some point early next week (well, almost certainly will) – though high pressure may hold them away for a day or two. Once they break through, an unsettled week is probable.

I’ll be back later in the week.…

Fairly mixed and ordinary weather ahead, though mild this weekend.

Thanks to Karen for the photograph.

So we start the forecast period with high pressure close to our east (would be pretty glorious if a summer month) – low pressure to our west which is going to squeeze past to the north of the UK during the weekend.

Friday starts reasonably sunny though a fair amount of high cloud which will make it hazy at times – becoming completely sunny as the day goes on. Still on the cool side despite the southerly breeze, 9’C. A weak weather front will cross in the evening and overnight, bringing mostly cloud but perhaps the odd splash of rain. No lower than around 6’C.

Saturday starts mostly cloudy, perhaps a spot of drizzle. The sun should come out in the afternoon to an extent, though likely still quite a lot of cloud around – some uncertainty on cloud amounts, certainly possible it stays mostly cloudy all afternoon too. Much milder, 14’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, a bit of rain possible before dawn as a weather front edges in.

Sunday sees a weather front slowly cross from west to east, so a cloudy day with some showery rain at times – not always raining, some of the rain fairly light but potentially some heavy bursts mixed in too. Likely some sunshine before the end of the day. Around 12’C and breezy. Reasonably clear skies overnight, a small chance of a passing shower and down to around 8’C.

Monday sees the wind swing more to the north-west, quite a bit of cloud around – some bits of rain, but also some sunnier breaks too. Cooler, around 9’C and breezy. A frost possible overnight, though probably clouding over later in the night.

Tuesday should start dry but probably on the cloudy side. It looks like a weather front will cross either later in the day, or evening/overnight bringing rain – timing currently fairly uncertain. Reaching around 7’C.

Low confidence on details for Wednesday – more likely dry with some sunshine, though perhaps still some rain to clear in the morning, depending on the timing/track of Tuesday’s low. Around 8’C.

Low pressure probably takes over again for Thursday/Friday so more rain likely at some point.

Perhaps high pressure back for the weekend.

Generally – think changeable, rain at times, dry and sunny at other times, though the longer-term trend should be for drier conditions to be more often in place.

I will be doing the winter forecast soon…maybe this weekend.…

Not a dry week, but a calmer week this week – the cold has gone, but the mild will disappear too.

No photographs so you’ll have to have one of mine – from the joy that is Oxford Street on a wet and windy November afternoon. Don’t worry…I wasn’t going shopping.

So we start the week with Storm Bert heading into Scandinavia, and high pressure will weakly form behind it.

Cloudy to start the day, but this will quickly move east to be replaced by sunny spells and a bit of patchy cloud. Around 11’C and breezy, if not quite windy at times. Clear skies at first overnight, though an area of cloud and perhaps a shower crossing through the middle of the night – down to around 5’C.

Tuesday looks mostly sunny. A bit of patchy cloud and then some high/mid-level cloud developing later in the afternoon as the next low pressure approaches. Around 9’C. An area of rain spreading across overnight – likely some heavy bursts mixed in, perhaps some very heavy rain briefly. Around 5’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy, probably still some rain at dawn (and perhaps heavy) – timing as to when it clears is uncertain, and could broadly be any time from 6am to 1pm when it finishes raining. A very small chance of some sleet/wet snow on the back edge. Likely quite windy, generally pretty chilly too – around 5’C. Maybe some sunshine by late afternoon, but again, timing on when the little low pressure clears is uncertain. Skies clearing overnight and a frost probable, more likely down to around -1’C, give or take. A small chance of fog forming.

By Thursday, our little low is in the North Sea, and high pressure is building behind it – but the next low pressure system, a rather huge system is spinning away in the Atlantic (which actually spawned Wednesday’s low pressure…kind of spat it out in a meteorological way).

Thursday should be mostly sunny if a bit on the chilly side. Some high cloud likely at times, perhaps a bit of patchy low cloud but mostly sunny. 7’C at best. Some high cloud pushing east overnight so uncertain how low temperatures will go, but more likely around 0’C which will mean frost possible, and a small chance of fog forming too.

Friday most likely bright with hazy sunshine – weather fronts trying to push in from the west but not getting anywhere. Around 8’C, maybe a tad more. Probably on the cloudier side overnight, down to around 4’C – though not especially confident on details.

Some uncertainty for the weekend, but it does look like high pressure will strengthen and keep the low pressure at bay.

Probably sunny on Saturday or at least on the sunnier side of the spectrum, and around 8’C or so. Probably clear skies overnight – so a frost possible and down to around 0’C.

And probably the same or similar for Sunday – sunny or on the sunnier side of the spectrum and around 7’C or so.

Not especially high confidence for the weekend – high pressure wouldn’t need to be much weaker for weather fronts to make more progress with cloudier skies with some rain – it is still a plausible outcome.

My expectation remains for high pressure to be around more often than not in December, so conditions often settled and calm. Though you’ll find out more about my winter expectations fairly soon…the seasonal forecast is nearly due.…