Monday 14th June 2021

Two more hot days – then the thundery breakdown.

The forecast is going to be a bit vague for later in the week as these style of thundery breakdowns are not only uncertain right up to the moment in terms of where will get thunderstorms and where will get downpours – but are also uncertain in terms of what happens in the 2-3 days after.

Thanks to Fay for the glorious photograph.

Tonight will be mostly cloudy due to a very weak weather front that is spreading south-east slowly – remaining rather warm and humid, eventually down to 16’C.

Tuesday will be rather cloudy in the morning, though some sunny breaks too. Gradually sunshine amounts will increase – with long spells of sunshine by late afternoon, if not earlier. Still very warm, though a bit lower than today, 25’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, fairly warm and quite humid too, 15’C.

Wednesday is the last hot and sunny day of this spell. Long spells of hot sunshine all day, maybe some cloud later in the afternoon as the fun and games approaches. 28’C likely, perhaps more – and humid too. Late evening onwards will see showers spread up from the south – likely heavy or even torrential, thunder/lightning possible. A warm and muggy night, no lower than 18’C.

I stress again the uncertainty for this period!

Thursday morning may well still see further showers or general rain, likely heavy, thunder possible – when it clears is uncertain, it may have cleared by dawn or it may not clear until midday. Likely mostly cloudy afterwards, some bright spells possible – especially if the overnight showers/storms cleared quite early. Likely also still warm and humid, say around 22’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, still quite a warm and humid feel, down to around 15’C – a chance of showers by dawn.

Friday sees low pressure close to our south-east.

It isn’t certain, but most likely further showers or general rain spread up from the south-east. Lots of uncertainty – it could arrive anywhere from morning until evening, it could just be some showers, or it could be many hours of very heavy rain. Maximum temperatures anywhere between 15’C and 22’C. Showers/rain likely continuing into the evening and perhaps overnight for a time too.

Tentatively Saturday looks reasonable, with quite a bit of cloud but some sunny spells, and temperatures around 21’C. I state this with fairly low confidence though.

Either Saturday night or Sunday may see the next spell of heavy, possibly thundery showers moving up from the south – probably still warm or very warm.

Low confidence for next week, but suggestions that it will be cooler than normal and certainly of late, sunshine and showers.…

Saturday 12th June 2021

Becoming hot but a change is in sight for next week…and maybe some thunderstorms.

I had 4 excellent photographs to choose from this week – thanks to Paul for the photograph of the cricket. A sports-themed photograph seems apt given the kick-off of Euro 2020 – alas, Euro 2020 is also to blame for me forgetting to do the forecast last night. Oops.

Saturday will be sunnier than recent days – though still some cloud around. High cloud at first, making the sun a tad hazy, this will clear but fair weather cloud will bubble up at times from late morning – likely late morning through to early afternoon the cloudiest time, but there will be sunny spells too. Very warm but feeling a tad fresher in a light northerly breeze, 24’C. Mostly clear tonight, 12’C.

High pressure remains in control for Sunday, and the positioning just allows something hotter to drift up from the south.

Long spells of sunshine, a little bit of fair weather cloud in the afternoon, hot – reaching 27’C, maybe 28’C. Perfect for sitting indoors and watching football. Mostly clear overnight, down to around 15’C.

Monday morning looks sunny and hot. A very weak weather front spreading down from the north-west in the afternoon will bring more cloud, but still some sunny breaks. Hot, around 27’C, maybe 28’C – a bit humid too. Cloud at times overnight, 14’C.

Tuesday looks like there will be more cloud around, particularly in the morning. Uncertain on how much cloud, and likely some sunny spells also – and generally increasing amounts of sunshine as the day goes on. Temperatures a tad lower but still very warm, around 25’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

Wednesday heralds the change, but could be our hottest day of the year so far. Sunny spells probable in the morning, but cloud bubbling up in the afternoon with a chance of thunderstorms – I know it will be one of those nightmare forecasting situations. Likely hot, say 28’C to 30’C – though there is a chance that the thundery low develops in the morning instead which would reduce potential temperatures. The chance of thunderstorms and torrential downpours will remain in the evening and overnight – I can only offer “a chance” at the moment as it will be difficult to pin down the track and development of thunderstorms until nearer the time. Likely warm and humid overnight too.

Thursday…well…it could be anything depending on how and where the thundery low develops on Wednesday. It could be sunny, it could be cloudy, there could still be thunderstorms or general rain around. It might be fresher – or it might still be very warm and humid.

I guess I should give up here. Until the thundery low is resolved in the models, late next week and next weekend could be anything you might expect in June.

I’d suggest two main broad patterns are more likely, one is a return to fresher, more westerly-based weather once Wednesday’s thundery low clears – sunny spells, a chance of a shower or two, and temperatures around 20’C, give or take a couple of degrees.

But the thundery low could instead linger close to the UK for a few days (or a secondary thundery low may follow from the south), bringing further thunderstorms/showers/general heavy rain – but also some further very warm/hot sunshine at times, plus humidity.

Either way, the very warm/quite hot, fine and sunny conditions of late are likely to re-assert themselves afterwards. Summer will take a break, but it will be coming home quickly.

I’ll be back on Monday. Enjoy the football/beers/BBQ/sunbathing/picnic – whatever it is you have planned.…

Monday 7th June 2021

Summer continues. Not perfectly glorious – some cloud at times – but also temperatures ticking up to quite hot.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

Some patchy cloud at first tonight but becoming generally clear as the night goes on, down to around 11’C.

Tuesday continues with the theme of the Azores High stretching towards and over the UK – it isn’t especially strong but there is nothing going on in the Atlantic either with a weak jetstream to our north, so settled conditions prevail.

There will be good spells of very warm sunshine. Some bits of cloud floating around at times, probably some high cloud in the afternoon making it a tad hazy, but generally very pleasant – 24’C, maybe 25’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Wednesday will see long spells of sunshine. A bit of fair weather cloud later in the afternoon drifting in from the west – but otherwise mostly sunny. Quite hot, 26’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and a little stuffy too, 15’C.

Thursday looks cloudier as remnants of decaying weather fronts from the Atlantic get mixed in. Quite how much cloud is uncertain, but likely more cloud than sunshine overall – but still very warm with some sunshine – and a trend towards more sunshine later in the afternoon. Around 25’C, give or take a degree or two, depending on how much sunshine we end up with. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Likely quite a bit of cloud around in the morning on Friday, though very warm with some sunny breaks also. Generally becoming sunnier in the afternoon. Temperatures again will depend on quite how much cloud there is, but somewhere between 24’C and 27’C. Mostly clear overnight, down to around 13’C.

Saturday sees the high pressure become more UK-focused.

Either good spells of sunshine with some fair weather cloud, or long spells of sunshine – temperatures in the hot range, reaching somewhere between 26’C and 28’C.

Sunday looks very similar to Saturday – with the added intrigue that the 13th June is the only date in June never to have reached 30’C in the UK – there is an outside chance that somewhere might.

How long can this go on for?

Well, I’m pretty confident that it will stay hot and sunny for Monday. Less confident for Tuesday, but more likely than not.

But at some point next week, either midweek or at best late in the week, I’d expect a transition to a short unsettled spell, perhaps initiated by a thundery breakdown. At the moment, I expect it to be a brief unsettled spell with fine and warm conditions re-asserting themselves afterwards – but this is a long way away.

Best get the BBQ/picnic planned.…

Summer Weather Forecast 2021

Welcome to my Summer Weather Forecast for 2021.

I think if this forecast is more right than wrong, most of you should be pleased. Of course, I don’t always get it right – seasonal forecasts are experimental – at best some of the details will be wrong, at worst a month or so could be completely opposite to what I expect – competing drivers of the weather over the UK do make long-term predictions difficult.

This happened to my spring forecast – I got March and April reasonably close (though didn’t expect the amount of cold nights we had), but May I forecasted warm and sunny for most of it. Well it was for the last 5 days – does that count?! Of course not – my spring forecast was a disaster for May, though I did also suggest that that June would be sunnier and warmer than average – so far so good on that count.

So don’t take it as gospel.

Also I do ask if you can share the forecast in some way. Invite friends on Facebook, retweet on Twitter, e-mail it to your boss. Whatever works.

And a final piece of admin is to say thank you to Kira for the photograph adorning the forecast and the cover of the Facebook page for the next 3 months. A donation has been sent to Breast Cancer Now.

Background signals

Background signals generally have less influence in summer over UK weather.

La Niña has faded and we are broadly in neutral conditions, though perhaps there might be some “atmospheric memory” which could increase the chances of cloudier, cooler conditions from the north-west at times – similar to last July, but any spells should be short.

The sudden stratospheric warming event in January led to blocking highs which brought us cold weather in January, February and, arguably, April. It is my view that this pattern can persist in summer – though at this time of year, blocking highs nearly will mean warmer (unless over Greenland) and sunnier than normal conditions. I don’t think this is accepted scientific fact though – more my belief.

Sea surface temperatures around the UK are lower than normal, which would suggest that until they warm up, land temperatures will tend to be a shade lower than otherwise would be expected – though I doubt you’ll notice it.

June

June started very warm and sunny, and I expect this to continue into the second week, though with scattered heavy showers on a few days too, perhaps with thunder.

High pressure should remain in control for much of the month, generally close to Scandinavia – suggestions of a short hot spell around mid-month, with a breakdown to a short cooler and unsettled spell are there – before high pressure reasserts itself with more warm/very warm and fairly sunny weather. Away from the short hot spell/breakdown, low cloud may form overnight on some nights, and take a bit of time to clear in the morning.

Suggestions of something more changeable towards the very end of the month.

Overall I expect June to be sunnier than average, warmer than average with rainfall totals below average – unless one of the thundery showers is especially potent.

Confidence around 90%.

July

July looks a bit more mixed, and may start cooler than normal, with some rain/showers – but also some fine, sunny days in the mix.

Signals are fairly weak after the beginning 7-10 days, but high pressure should feature over or close to the UK. Whilst some changeable conditions will be likely – I’m not expecting a long-lasting settled spell like in June, I think the main theme should still be for more very warm, sunny weather – hot at times though also some thundery downpours developing on some days.

Overall I expect July to be around average for sunshine, perhaps a tad below, slightly warmer than average and slightly wetter than average.

Confidence around 60%.

August

In recent years we’ve often seen the summer deteriorating by late July and through August, though this year I am more hopeful that high pressure will stage a renaissance.

For much of the month, high pressure should be close to the UK, meaning many more days of warm/very warm sunshine – hot at times, but also a chance of cooler days, depending on the exact positioning of high pressure.

There is a slight signal for it to shift north of the UK at times, so this will again mean some periods where it is still very warm and sunny, but heavy, thundery showers will develop.

I don’t have a particular reading over what part of August will be the hottest, but perhaps the latter half if I’m pushed.

Overall I expect August to be sunnier than normal, warmer than normal (though that does depend on high pressure positioning) and slightly below average for rainfall (though again, catch a notable downpour and locally you may end up above average).

Confidence around 70%.

Summary and Autumn suggestions

Not bad, huh? If it comes true, of course, as I will get some things wrong – signals are particularly weak for July so it could easily end up wetter than I expect, I do feel more confident for August’s forecast than July’s.

Looking ahead to autumn…and winter…yes it is time to start thinking about winter forecasts.

Currently there is a slight signal for a wetter than normal September. There is a fairly strong signal for a cooler than normal second half to autumn – perhaps colder than normal might be more descriptive, but also drier than normal second half.

There are background signals suggesting that cold spells are more likely than normal this coming winter too.

Autumn/winter is, of course, a long way away and things can and will change in terms of background signals, so only take this as a guide for now.

Enjoy the summer.…

Thursday 2rd June 2021

Staying very warm, often sunny – but there are some showers in the mix too.

Thanks to Victoria for the photograph.

Tonight sees quite a lot of mid-level cloud, perhaps even a spot of light rain this evening. Down to around 14’C – a small chance of importing the left-overs of continental thundery showers by dawn.

Friday has a bit of uncertainty – thunderstorms over the continent will extend their reach to the eastern parts of England as they drift north, and there is always some uncertainty on their track. Most likely we’ll end up with quite a lot of medium level cloud, some occasional sunny breaks and possibly some occasional light/moderate showery rain – but it will depend on how far west it stretches.

So we could end up sunnier than this, or we could end up generally cloudier and wetter, perhaps with a rumble of thunder. Temperatures will depend on sunshine amounts, and hence quite how far west the rain reaches, so maximum temperatures anywhere between 15’C and 21’C – quite humid too. Cloud mostly clearing overnight, down to around 11’C.

For Saturday we are back to warm sunshine. There will be some cloud bubbling up in the afternoon, but broadly warm and sunny – around 22’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

By Sunday the picture remains that high pressure is in control, though not the strongest ever build.

Plenty of sunshine again, but fair weather cloud will bubble up – likely more than on Saturday with a 15% chance of catching a heavy shower in the afternoon. Warm. around 22’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 13’C.

Monday again sees sunny spells, but quite a bit of cloud will bubble up. A greater chance of heavy showers developing, and I’d estimate around a 30% chance of catching one or two – perhaps very heavy with a small chance of thunder too. Very warm, 23’C, perhaps a shade more. Variable amounts of cloud overnight, down to around 13’C.

Similar again for Tuesday, sunny spells, some cloud bubbling up and around a 25% chance of catching a heavy shower – a small chance of thunder. Very warm, around 23’C or so. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday should remain very warm with sunny spells. Some cloud bubbling up and a small chance of a heavy shower. Around 24’C, maybe a tad more. Clear spells overnight, down to around 13’C.

Next weekend is quite a way away – most likely it remains mostly settled with sunny spells and a small chance of a shower, though perhaps becoming less warm – that bit more uncertain.

I will get my summer forecast written this weekend!…

Photograph Request – Summer Forecast

So it’s already officially one day into summer and I still haven’t written my summer weather forecast.

But I cannot do a summer weather forecast without a summer photograph.

And for the one I choose, I will donate £15 to the charity of their choice – but please make sure it is not something that people will argue with no matter how decent the cause – ie any organisation involved in politics/religion. Fluffy animals, heart research – that kind of thing. I try to keep this a politics free zone as best as possible.

Requirements

  1. The photograph needs to have longer length than height (ie landscape orientation). This is because it doesn’t work as a cover photograph on Facebook or on my website if it is not.
  2. It must have weather. I try to use one close to representing my forecast – so remember that there is more than one weather type possible in summer.
  3. It must feature the local area.

How to send

Please either e-mail them to me or reply to the Facebook post requesting a photograph. I will not be able to reply to them all but I will look at them all!…

Monday 31st May 2021

You could say summer has started.

It will remain very warm this week – not completely glorious as there will be some cloud at times, and some showers – more likely second part of the week. But still, it is summer as we expect in the UK.

Thanks to Cari for the sunny photograph.

Tonight sees mostly clear skies in a light southerly breeze, down to around 12’C.

Tuesday sees a large area of high pressure over Scandinavia which is ruling our weather – though a developing area of low pressure over Spain/France will start to push north.

It will be sunny day all – a little fair weather cloud possible along with some high cloud later in the day. Very warm, 25’C. High cloud overnight, down to around 12’C.

Wednesday sees that small area of low pressure track north to give some complications. It will be another very warm day, hazy sunshine in the morning, somewhat thicker cloud in the afternoon but still bright. A small chance of a shower in the afternoon, a moderate chance of a shower or some showery rain in the evening, perhaps heavy and a very small chance of thunder – temperatures reaching somewhere between 25’C and 27’C. Variable cloud overnight, down to around 14’C.

Thursday may start rather cloudy and misty, but this should break up fairly quickly to leave sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. A chance of a heavy shower in the afternoon, say around a 20% chance but more likely they won’t develop. Warm, around 21’C – give or take. Reasonably clear skies overnight – though there is a small chance that earlier thunderstorms over France may bring something cloudier with a bit of rain. Down to around 12’C – give or take.

The most likely outcome for Friday sees sunny spells and variable amounts of fair weather cloud. Warm – around 20’C. There is a small chance instead, say around a 10% chance, of importing some heavy and thundery rain from France – not likely as it should be well to our east, but worth mentioning as it would be completely different from my current expectations! Mostly clear overnight, down to around 10’C.

Saturday sees high pressure in reasonable control. The most likely outcome sees some sunny spells, probably quite a bit of cloud around but overall pleasant and warmer again, around 22’C – perhaps more. Clear spells overnight, down to around 12’C.

Sunday most likely remains fair, with sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud – both fair weather cloud and high cloud. A small chance of an afternoon shower, temperatures around 22’C, give or take. Around 12’C overnight.

Most likely high pressure remains in control next week – it should stay warm or very warm, and often sunny. Cannot rule out some heavy, perhaps thundery afternoon showers at times – the expected build of high pressure isn’t quite strong enough to rule it out. But broadly – summer as we know it in the UK.…

Wednesday 26th May 2021

WARNING. This weather forecast is going to feature the word, “warm”, on multiple occasions.

Yes, high pressure is taking control at last, and things are going to warm up, perhaps becoming very warm. Not all so straight-forward there will be some cloud at times, and still one or two showers also.

And I’ve just realised – this will be our first warm spell since…September? I don’t count the two days at the end of March as a “spell”!

Thanks to Paul for the photograph. Well, two photographs.

Tonight sees fairly clear skies, down to around 5’C.

Thursday starts sunny. Plenty of pointless low-level cloud will bubble up by late morning, there will be a few sunny breaks – and increasingly so as the afternoon goes on, it should finish very pleasant. Just a very small chance of a light shower around lunchtime. Feeling warmer, around 18’C – perhaps a shade more. High cloud building overnight from the west, down to around 8’C.

Friday sees a weather front trying to push across from the west, but being slowly squeezed out of existence as high pressure builds. It means it will be rather cloudy but with hazy sunshine, occasionally cloud thick enough for the odd light bit of rain – possibly anyway. Fairly warm, 18’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, the odd spot of rain, around 10’C.

By Saturday high pressure is building more extensively – from the Azores through the UK into Scandinavia – a similar set-up as to much of spring 2020.

Still quite a bit of cloud trapped underneath the high from that decayed weather front, so likely that sunny spells will be outpaced by cloud amounts, and there will be the odd shower around – most likely not heavy. Warm, 20’C – maybe a shade more. Clear spells overnight, down to around 9’C.

Sunday will be sunny. It starts pretty glorious, some fair weather cloud will bubble up but less than of late – a very small chance of a shower. Warm, we should squeeze 22’C. Clear spells overnight, down to around 9’C.

Bank Holiday Monday again starts sunny. Fair weather cloud will bubble up, again a very small chance of a shower but another pleasant and warm day. 22’C, maybe 23’C. Clear spells overnight, some high cloud also – down to around 10’C.

Tuesday looks even warmer. Likely some high cloud around making it a bit hazy, but also less of the fair weather cloud. Very warm, 25’C is achievable. Clear spells overnight, down to around 10’C.

Wednesday is likely very similar – low pressure perhaps a bit closer to our north-west and a small chance of low pressure moving up from Spain, but most likely neither approaching by Wednesday.

Which means more very warm sunshine, perhaps into the quite hot category. Some cloud, but sunshine the main theme, temperatures somewhere between 24’C and 27’C.

Thursday probably stays very warm/quite hot, with sunny spells. Small chance of a thundery shower, it should be somewhere between 23’C and 28’C.

Things do become a bit more uncertain by Friday and into next weekend. The slightly more likely outcome sees high pressure remain in control but temperatures drop back a bit to say 20’C or so – a shower or two possible.

It may instead stay very warm – I would neither rule out a brief return to something cooler and unsettled – or rule out a short properly hot southerly, followed by a thundery breakdown.

I should get back to normal Monday/Thursday operations next week – this forecast is early as I’ll be travelling up north for “Christmas” tomorrow. A warm “Christmas” – feels almost as strange as a warm day in spring felt a week or so ago.…

Sunday 23rd May 2021

Weather forecast on a Sunday morning? Well, that makes a change – alas the weather doesn’t (yet) seem ready for a change with further rain and showers to come.

But maybe you should keep reading until the end of this forecast. That is a hint.

I know I have been shifting around the forecast days a bit recently – I realised that I’ll have a lot to catch up on at work tomorrow after a week off, plus I’m on call in the evening/overnight tomorrow, so figured it was sensible to do it now.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

Sunday starts rather cloudy with a few heavy showers – but also some hazy sunshine at times. Showers tending to fade by mid-afternoon, with a weather front bringing rain from the west from around 4/5pm – some heavy rain and perhaps a short spell of very heavy rain later in the evening before it clears. Around 13’C, winds becoming strong later. Rain clearing before midnight, mostly clear overnight, down to around 6’C.

Monday starts with the low pressure trough over us – though it should be the last for a while. Should. And yes that is another hint to keep reading until the end.

It will be another day of limited sunshine and lots of heavy showers, hail and thunder both possible – showers pretty much from the start of the day until the evening. Cool, 13’C tops. Further showers possible in the evening with a chance of an area of more general rain for a few hours overnight, down to around 6’C.

Tuesday is another day of limited sunshine and plenty of showers. Less showers than Monday but still plenty around, less heavy than Monday but still heavy at times. And a bit more sunshine too. 14’C. Fairly clear overnight, down to around 5’C.

By Wednesday we start to see high pressure trying to build to the west, but our low pressure trough will still be close to our east, centred over Denmark.

Overall a fairly mixed day, some sunny spells at times, plenty of cloud around and a general cloudy spell or two possible. Showers still possible too, though again a bit less likely than the day before. Temperatures picking up a bit too, 15’C, maybe 16’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 7’C.

Thursday starts sunny. Lots of cloud is likely to develop by midday but may break up at times later in the afternoon. Only a small chance of a shower, most likely staying dry. Feeling warmer, around 18’C. Mostly clear overnight, down to around 9’C.

Tentatively, Friday should be a decent spring day. Sunny spells, fair weather cloud – I cannot yet rule out the chance of showers or something cloudier as it is a fairly weak build of high pressure. Assuming a fair day, then somewhere between 18’C and 20’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 9’C.

By the weekend, we should be seeing high pressure continuing to build over or close to the UK. It isn’t nailed on yet – the position of the high pressure is still uncertain and therefore the chance of showers, the wind direction and cloud amounts.

However, broadly speaking, the bank holiday weekend should be at least fairly warm (perhaps very warm by Monday), fairly sunny and fairly dry.

Don’t get too excited as it will need a couple more days before I’m confident of this evolution, and even if it pans out as broadly expected there can still be cloud, cool winds and/or showers mixed in too.

But, it is the most optimistic I’ve been for a fair few weeks for some warm sunshine. Bring it on.

Next forecast will probably be Wednesday evening, as I’ll be heading up north the next day to celebrate Christmas…finally. And then I should get back into the usual Monday/Thursday evening groove.…

Wednesday 19th May 2021

Morning. More rain and showers to come over the next few days – likely settling down next week but still no sign of warmth.

Probably a shorter update than normal as I’m on holiday, using my old slow laptop – and I’m just waiting for others to wake up so we can go out. Believe it or not, it has actually been sunny and dry here in the Lake District – actually felt like late spring in the sunshine yesterday. And it will for us today – alas, not for you down south.

Thanks to Clare for the photograph – I haven’t had time to even look at them all let alone say thanks, there have been loads sent to me – and my slow laptop never helps.

Today starts cloudy with some rain. This will clear east fairly quickly, replaced by brighter skies but still plenty of cloud – then heavy showers will develop from around lunchtime onwards. Not impossible you miss them but most likely getting at least a couple, possibly very heavy with hail and thunder possible too. Around 15’C in limited sunny spells. Clear spells overnight though cloud thickening from the west later, down to around 6’C.

Thursday starts bright. Cloud will continue to thicken with outbreaks of showery rain from late morning onwards – mostly light or moderate, and brightening up again later. Windy, around 13’C. Windy overnight, showers possible.

Friday sees low pressure in charge. Winds will be strong, there will be plenty of showers all day – possibly merging into longer spells of rain in the afternoon and evening. Cooler, 12’C and just 10 days until summer officially starts.

Saturday sees this low pressure move east, as we await the next one – and possibly last for a while. Plenty of cloud, a bit of sunshine, still some showers around which could be heavy, 14’C at a push.

Sunday then sees the next low pressure system arrive. A band of rain will push east, timing uncertain but during the day with several hours of persistent rain. If during the morning, then expect heavy showers to follow. Quite windy asnd cool, 12’C.

Monday is another day of sunny spells and heavy showers. Hail and thunder possible, though a bit of sunshine too and perhaps getting to 15’C.

Will it ever end? Well, on Tuesday the weather will start to…I don’t want to say improve so I’ll say de-escalate. High pressure will start to build from the west, so there will be more sunshine but there will still be some scattered heavy showers and a northerly breeze. 15’C or so.

The rest of next week looks similar. High pressure to our west, low pressure to our east – we are stuck in the middle with a northerly flow which will mean temperatures around 15’C, some sunny spells but also some showers – generally less than of late but still around. Perhaps trending a tad warmer later in the week but I’m cautious.

The somewhat more likely outcome for the bank holiday weekend would see it fairly dry, fairly sunny and fairly warm – though something cooler and wet is still possible. You can have hope though.

June still looks like it will be settled – drier than normal but temperatures probably quite varied, with high pressure likely to be close to our west this will mean a return of cooler northerlies at times, though cooler northerlies can still be pleasantly warm enough in June. And there will be the chance of more notable warmth at times too.…