Lots more glorious sunshine to come.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph.

High pressure remains in control for this week, it will drift around a bit but broadly staying over or close to the UK – and starting the week pretty much bang on top of us.

Monday sees long spells of sunshine, especially in the morning – perhaps some cloud bubbling up in the afternoon. Quite warm, 17’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, the odd mist/fog patch around by dawn, down to around 3’C.

Mist/fog/low cloud patches will quickly clear on Tuesday morning to long spells of sunshine. We’ll pick up an easterly breeze which will take the edge off – 15’C feels more reasonable. Clear skies overnight, too much of a breeze for a frost – around 5’C.

Wednesday sees long spells of sunshine all day, perhaps a bit of cloud in the afternoon at times. The easterly breeze definitely taking the edge off – 13’C, maybe 14’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Long spells of sunshine again for Thursday, with a little high cloud in the afternoon making it a bit hazier. The breeze turning more south-easterly and temperatures will respond – 19’C, maybe 20’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, most likely anyway – down to around 6’C though very give and take.

By Friday high pressure is probably a little north of us. It’s a pretty delicate set-up, we could easily go much warmer from here – but likewise we could easily end up in days of chilly, cloudy easterlies. Confidence is not especially high by this point.

More likely, Friday remains in the warmer south-easterly, and remains mostly sunny, at somewhere between 17’C and 20’C. But there is a small chance of cloudy and chillier conditions instead.

Very low confidence for Saturday – I’d suggest something mixed in terms of sunshine and cloud is more likely, and lower temperatures – say 14’C ish – but very low confidence. It could be much cloudier and cooler instead. There’s still a small chance of the warmer, sunnier conditions hanging on too.

It will be dry though.

Likewise Sunday, it could be cloudy, it could be sunny, it could be a mixture of both – and anywhere between 10’C and 20’C is feasible. I’d favour something on the sunnier side of the spectrum and around 15’C as more likely – but there is a broad range of options depending on subtle differences in high pressure positioning. Again, it will be dry though.

More likely high pressure hangs around for the next week (perhaps even for most of April) so we’ll see plenty more dry weather, probably plenty more sunshine – though North Sea cloud will remain a risk at times.

Temperatures likely varying somewhat – a blast of Arctic air from the north-east still remains possible due to the sudden stratospheric warming event we had, overnight frosts remain plausible. But even easterly flows warm up in late April.

Later in April perhaps has more opportunities for showers – low pressure seems probable to be around Spain/Portugal/France more than normal this April, and may at times push showers our way – later in April.…

Cooler for the weekend but warming up again next week – some very reasonable weather ahead.

Alas, I only managed one sunny day in Budapest, it’s back to rain today, though at least it is light rain. Guess I’m going to have to book another holiday.

Thanks to Becky for the photograph.

The general picture sees low pressure back in charge, just to the north of Scotland, but high pressure over the Azores is waiting to return.

Friday started cloudy with some light rain, gradually it will become sunnier, with some fair-weather cloud and a small chance of a shower. Feeling cooler in the north-westerly wind, 13’C, maybe 14’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 1’C – a frost very possible, especially in more sheltered spots.

Saturday will be sunny for much of the day, if increasingly hazy – thicker cloud likely arrives around late afternoon. Reaching around 14’C and becoming rather breezy later in the day. Cloudy for much of the night, perhaps a little light rain/drizzle at times in the evening, skies clearing around dawn – down to around 8’C.

Sunday looks rather sunny once more – some fair-weather cloud at times, more so around late-morning, but plenty of sunshine for much of the day. Temperatures ticking back up, 16’C, maybe 17’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 2’C – a frost possible, more so in sheltered spots.

By Monday the Azores high will be over the UK once more, and contrary to previous expectations it will be positioned to allow warmer flows – at least for now.

Monday sees good spells of sunshine, some high cloud making it hazy at times, and some fair-weather cloud too, but mostly it will be sunny. Around 17’C or so, so quite warm. Some high cloud overnight and generally pretty chilly, down to around 2’C – a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

Tuesday again sees plenty more sunshine, though some high cloud making it hazy at times. A bit of uncertainty on the direction of the breeze and hence temperatures, so somewhere between 14’C and 18’C. Another chilly night likely – down to around 4’C.

Wednesday again looks mostly sunny – uncertainty on temperatures, somewhere between 15’C and 20’C.

More likely Thursday remains quite warm and sunny, though some uncertainty – a cloudy and cooler day is not impossible. Assuming the more likely sunny outcome, then reaching somewhere between 17’C and 21’C.

Friday and into next weekend stay dry – but whether it is warm and sunny, or cool and cloudy, is uncertain. At the moment I’d favour the warmer and sunnier outcome as more likely, maybe 60/40 split in terms of confidence.

Next forecast should be on Monday morning…time to go enjoy a bit more of Budapest.…

Hello from foggy Budapest! Yes, I managed a whole 6 months without leaving the country, and all I’ve had so far is rain, cloud and now fog…oh and the dentist. How fun.

A reasonable week in the UK, but generally more cloud than sunshine, and a bit cooler by the weekend.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

The general picture sees the Azores High nudging north-east – and the jetstream to our north mostly keeping weather fronts away.

Any early mist will clear quickly on Tuesday, bright at first but a weak weather front will spread down during the morning to bring mostly cloud, perhaps a little drizzle. Around 14’C, maybe 15’C. Staying cloudy for much of the night, a bit of light rain/drizzle possible at times, especially in the evening. Clear spells possible – but fog will form if the cloud breaks. Down to around 5’C but very give or take on that.

Wednesday starts with low cloud/mist/fog. This breaks up to an extent but always likely more cloud than sunshine overall, but still a reasonable day – and reaching around 16’C. Clear spells for a time overnight but mist/fog/low cloud forming later in the night. Roughly down to around 4’C – but again very give or take.

Thursday again starts with low cloud/mist/fog for many. Again it breaks up to an extent but always lots of cloud around – generally less cloud later in the day and more sunny spells. Around 16’C or so. Clear spells at first overnight, cloud thickening later as a weather front approaches – down to around 6’C.

Friday starts with a weather front crossing – timing uncertain but at some point during the morning there will be 2-3 hours of showery rain, perhaps even clearing by dawn, though more likely not. Most likely sunshine and scattered heavy showers follow, though perhaps it just stays cloudy instead. A much cooler feel in a north-westerly wind, around 11’C or so. Clear skies overnight, down to around 2’C – a frost possible in more sheltered spots.

The ridge of high pressure remains to start the weekend but low pressure is lurking to the west.

Saturday likely starts sunny, with cloud tending to increase later in the day. Around 12’C or so and breezy. A weak weather front probably crosses overnight, bringing some cloud and a bit of light rain.

Low confidence for Sunday – somewhat more likely on the sunny side of the spectrum, showers possible – temperatures uncertain, could be cooler, could be warmer. Will need another day or two for it to become clearer.

High pressure likely to dominate next week – early signs are that it will be in a cooler position, drawing in easterly winds – it’s impossible to know whether the sudden stratospheric warming event is causing this to show in the models, but it’s broadly what I’d expect, and have been expecting.

That said, the positioning is far from guaranteed, and I’d say it is still around 65/35 split as to whether it is in a position that sources colder air, or a position that sources warmer air. Overnight frosts will remain very possible – far too far away to know the sunshine/cloud balance.

Next forecast might be on Friday morning, but I’m not sure right now. Have a pleasant week…I’m hoping the sun comes out here in Budapest later today.…

Well we had our first 20’C of the year yesterday – a showery weekend to come though.

Thanks to Kate for the photograph.

The general set-up sees our plume of warm air moving east, as low pressure heads our way from the west of Portugal.

Today sees mostly high/mid-level cloud so it will often be bright, sometimes kinda hazy sunshine. The cloud tending to be thicker in the morning, perhaps a little light rain, the cloud a bit thinner in the afternoon. Still quite warm, reaching around 18’C. Showery rain moves in for the evening, say by around 6pm though don’t hold me to an exact time, on and off for around 6 or so hours. Cloudy for the rest of the night and around 10’C.

Saturday starts mostly cloudy, perhaps a little misty in places. It will slowly break up to allow some sunny spells, but as the sun comes out, showers will develop – some heavy, perhaps thundery. Still a quite warm feel, 16’C is plausible with enough sunshine. Further showers possible in the evening and overnight, down to around 9’C.

Sunday looks fairly cloudy with either heavy showers breaking out, or perhaps (less likely) general showery rain – depending on the exact positioning of the low pressure. A chance of some limited sunny spells – if you do get some sunshine, then 15’C or so is possible, but otherwise then around 12’C. Generally cloudy overnight, perhaps still a little bit of showery rain – but any rain will tend to fade and become light. Down to around 8’C.

Likely a lot of cloud around on Monday. Plausible that it could break up in the afternoon into sunny spells, but uncertain – and more likely it stays on the cloudier side. Temperatures either around 11’C or around 16’C – depending on if the sun comes out. Mostly cloudy overnight, around 7’C.

By Tuesday we start to see a more westerly flow, though likely the Azores High nudges in.

Some uncertainty on cloud amounts once more, but more likely on the cloudier side of the spectrum, and assuming so then temperatures around 13’C or so. However – something a bit sunnier (at times anyway) is possible, and temperatures around 16’C. A chilly night likely.

Wednesday stays dry – again uncertainty on cloud amounts, and I’d suggest a broad split between cloud and sunshine more likely, but it could easily be rather cloudy, or rather sunny. Again temperatures to match, more likely around 14’C or 15’C – but 12’C or 17’C possible if either on the cloudier or sunnier sides of the spectrum.

Likely more cloud for Thursday, with weather fronts starting to push in from the west – probably minimal amounts of rain, if any, still some sunshine possible and roughly around 15’C.

The somewhat more likely outcome for Friday and into next weekend see the return of low pressure, with spells of wind and rain – and temperatures back on the cool side. I don’t have especially strong confidence on this outcome.

Still not seeing any effect of the sudden-stratospheric warming event in the models – my semi-educated guess was that it wouldn’t impact until April anyway. My assumption remains that we’ll see further cool weather in the first half of April at least.

Have a pleasant weekend, I should be back on Monday morning, all being well.…

A bit of a mixture of a week, chilly at first, warming up, then some showers/rain by the weekend.

Thanks to Tara for the photograph.

We start the week with the colder air still in place, high pressure to our north and an easterly – but this high pressure slowly gets pushed east by low pressure systems, which will turn the winds to a warmer direction. Notably wet over Spain/Portugal where low pressure is heading at first.

Monday will be mostly cloudy for much of the day, certainly the morning – some bright/sunny spells as the afternoon goes on. Still feeling pretty chilly at around 7’C in a more notable easterly breeze. Skies clearing overnight, a frost possible – down to around 0’C, though perhaps too much breeze for a frost.

Tuesday sees long spells of sunshine. The breeze now more south-easterly and temperatures picking up to around 11’C – still a bit of a chill. Mostly clear skies overnight, probably too much breeze for a frost, down to around 1’C.

By Wednesday the breeze is more southerly and temperatures respond as such. Good spells of sunshine, some high/mid-level cloud making it hazy at times but a pleasant spring day overall. Reaching around 16’C. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, around 5’C.

Thursday sees good spells of sunshine once more, some high cloud making it hazy at times and some fair-weather cloud, but overall another very pleasant day – and quite warm, 17’C, maybe 18’C. More in the way of high/mid-level cloud overnight, down to around 7’C.

By Friday low pressure will be starting to make inroads.

Quite warm with hazy sunshine most likely for the morning, at least, reaching around 17’C or so. But showery rain arriving at some point, maybe the afternoon, maybe the evening. Showers possible overnight, but uncertain – around 10’C.

Details uncertain for the weekend, but broadly speaking low pressure will be close by, and there will be showers – if not general rain.

I think slightly more likely Saturday will be a day of sunshine and showers, probably fairly limited on the sunshine and plentiful on the showers. Somewhere between 13’C and 17’C.

Broadly similar for Sunday, quite cloudy, some sunshine and a fair few showers – perhaps showery rain, and temperatures more likely between 11’C and 14’C.

I repeat that details are pretty sketchy right now for the weekend, but broadly expect showers.

Low confidence for next week – a return to warmth unlikely, likewise anything deeply unsettled unlikely. Perhaps more likely on the cool side once more.…

A few more fairly cold days, but becoming much milder again next week.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

We start the forecast period with high pressure to our west, and a cold north-easterly flow.

A bright start to Friday, quite a bit of cloud around. Cloud amounts tending to increase, still some sunny spells but more cloud overall, and a few showers popping up from mid-morning onwards, say a 70% chance of catching a couple – perhaps heavy. Fairly cold, 7’C at best in a north-easterly breeze. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight – down to around 1’C, a frost possible.

Saturday morning will see a fair amount of cloud, though some sunny spells. A small chance of a shower. Sunshine amounts tending to increase in the afternoon. Still pretty chilly but getting to around 9’C. Clear skies overnight and frosty, down to around -2’C.

Sunday starts fairly sunny but cloud amounts will increase for a mostly cloudy day from around mid-morning. A small chance of a shower, maybe a little more sunshine by the end of the day. Still on the chilly side, 8’C or so. Quite cloudy overnight, some clear spells, the odd shower possible too. Down to around 4’C.

Monday starts on the cloudy side of thing, some brightness at times though. Probably it will become sunnier as the day goes on. Around 8’C or so, the breeze more notable than it has been. Clear skies overnight, a frost probable – down to around 0’C, give or take.

By Tuesday the breeze turns more south-easterly and we pick up a milder flow.

Long spells of sunshine most likely, and reaching around 10’C. A frost probable overnight, down to around 0’C – give or take.

By Wednesday we’ll be in a southerly flow, with air from North Africa. Generally sunny, a bit of cloud around and much milder at around 15’C. Ahhh spring again. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 4’C.

Thursday looks very pleasant, potentially some more high/mid-level cloud, but we should reach a reasonable 18’C, or close to.

More uncertainty by Friday, probably we see weather fronts start to push in, so more cloud (hazy sunshine?) and an increased chance of showers, though the showers may well hold off until overnight or even the next day. Around 16’C.

More likely next weekend is fairly unsettled, with showers or rain at times, and temperatures tracking back down to normal, say 12’C by Sunday.

There is a small chance that we hang onto something more pleasant though, and low pressure stays to our south-west.

Current expectations are for a more unsettled or at least changeable end to March and beginning of April. Still waiting to see how the sudden stratospheric warming event plays out – my best guess remains colder then normal at times to start April, warmer than normal later in April.

Have a good weekend!…

Well we deserved 10 days of sunshine and 5 days of semi-warmth. Back to winter for now, but not much in the way of rain – and some sunshine, if much colder.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

The general set-up to start the week sees high pressure to our north-west, which allows a colder north-easterly flow to set up. The jetstream is much further south across the Mediterranean – it’s going to be notably wet in Portugal and Spain this week.

Today will be mostly cloudy with some occasional bits of rain – not amounting to much at all. A little brightness possible at times too. Still fairly mild at around 11’C in an easterly breeze. Again mostly cloudy overnight with occasional light rain, down to around 5’C.

Tuesday starts mostly cloudy. It will brighten up somewhat, always a lot of cloud but there will be some bright/sunny spells. The odd light shower around too. Colder, 8’C or so in the north-easterly breeze. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, a small chance of a wintry shower and down to roughly 1’C – a frost possible, but perhaps too much cloud and breeze.

By Wednesday the colder air will be much more entrenched. A day of sunny spells and showers, any showers early in the morning could potentially see some sleet/snow mixed in, afterwards more likely rain but still plausible that there could be a wintry mix, especially in any heavy showers. Around 6’C in the cold north-easterly breeze. Clear spells at first though an area of cloud and showers looks probable to spread south in the second half of the night – potentially a wintry mix. Down to around 1’C – a frost plausible if the showers miss us.

Thursday looks a cloudier day. Still some bright/sunny spells at times and a few showers around, though less likely than on Wednesday, and probably of rain should you catch one. Around 6’C, maybe 7’C. Some cloud and some clear spells overnight, a frost likely, down to around -1’C or so.

Friday should be somewhat sunnier again, though plenty of cloud bubbling up and a few showers too, perhaps a wintry mix if you catch a heavy one, though more likely any showers are rain. Around 7’C in an easterly breeze. Uncertain on cloud amounts overnight – a frost possible, but only if cloud stays away.

Synoptically not much change for the weekend – high pressure still to our north-west, low pressure still to our south.

It should be dry this weekend, some uncertainty on cloud amounts, depending on how close the low pressure to our south is, though I’d be hopeful of at least some sunshine each day – Sunday more so than Saturday on current expectations.

Temperatures still on the chilly side, around 7’C to 9’C, potentially feeling chillier in the breeze/wind, again depending on how close low pressure is to our south.

Low confidence for next week, but more likely than not temperatures increase – perhaps becoming quite warm once more. It’s roughly a 50/30/20 split in my head as to whether it becomes quite warm and pleasant, mild and somewhat unsettled, or some mixture of the two.

The sudden stratospheric warming event happened yesterday, so now we await to see the impacts – which tend to be 2-6 weeks from the event, and more often than not mean blocking highs in positions that bring northerly or easterly flows – similar positioning to this week, in fact. I doubt we’ll see any reaction in the models for a few days, at least.

Have a good week, I should be back on Friday morning most likely.…

A few more days of early spring warmth – winter is back next week.

Thanks to Cathy for the photograph.

We start the forecast period with high pressure centred over south-eastern Europe, but stretching all the way back to the UK, where we are in a warmer south-westerly flow. Low pressure is approaching, but will sink south towards Spain/France, rather than cross us directly.

Today sees more cloud than of late but it will generally be bright with hazy sunshine at times, tending to be more sunshine later this afternoon. Reaching 15’C, maybe 16’C – a small chance of the odd spot of rain but it should remain mostly dry. Skies clearing further overnight, down to around 6’C.

Saturday is another pleasant day – sunny to start though with some high cloud which will make it hazy at times, the high cloud tending to increase during the day, but it will remain bright with hazy sunshine. Quite warm, 16’C, maybe 17’C. Fairly clear skies overnight, down to around 6’C.

Sunday sees good spells of sunshine, with some high cloud at times – more so in the afternoon. Again quite warm, 16’C to 17’C more likely but I wouldn’t rule out an 18’C or even a tad more. Some cloud overnight, a small chance of a shower later – roughly around 7’C.

Details a bit more uncertain for Monday – the flow turns more easterly though likely we stay in the mild conditions for another day, say 12’C to 14’C. More likely bright in the morning, more likely cloudier later with some showery rain – but developments currently uncertain. Overnight could be dry, could be wet – no idea yet. Though almost certainly becoming colder.

By Tuesday we are back in a cold north-easterly flow. I hope you didn’t put your winter clothes away.

Again details a bit uncertain but more likely on the cloudy side, especially in the morning – a chance of a shower or two, which should be of rain but I cannot rule out something wintry. Around 6’C but feeling colder in the wind. Frost possible overnight depending on cloud amounts.

I cannot really do detail any further into the future than this. We’ll certainly stay in the easterly flow and temperatures will be on the cold side for mid-March, say 5’C to 7’C more likely, perhaps a little more.

High uncertainty on cloud amounts, rain amounts and whether there will be any frost – if the skies clear overnight then frosts will happen. I cannot rule out sleet/snow falling either.

Next weekend is anyone’s guess right now.

Have a fun weekend, I should be back on Monday morning.…

Frosty and/or foggy starts but more sunshine to come, and temperatures ticking up. A few days of spring…though don’t expect it to last.

Thanks to Lene for the photograph.

So the general picture to start the week sees high pressure in control – the jetstream is to the north taking low pressure systems far away from us, and also a low pressure over Portugal/Spain.

Early mist/fog patches will clear quite swiftly on Monday to leave long spells of sunshine. Maybe a bit of high cloud at times but pretty glorious otherwise. Reaching 10’C, maybe 11’C. Clear skies for much of the night, down to around -2’C and it will be frosty. Mist/fog patches forming by dawn – not everywhere.

Tuesday again starts with mist/fog patches in places – sunny from the off in others. Mist/fog will lift to leave long spells of sunshine and very little, if any cloud. Reaching around 11’C, maybe squeezing a 12’C. Fairly clear skies overnight though some high cloud. A frost likely, down to around -1’C, mist/fog patches again possible towards dawn.

By Wednesday we’ll be picking up more of a south-westerly flow, so it will be milder. Again there will be early mist/fog in some places to clear, but otherwise we’ll see long spells of sunshine with little cloud, if any. Reaching 14’C, with a bit of a breeze. Clear skies overnight though probably no frost, down to around 2’C. Mist/fog patches less likely too, though still a small chance in a few spots by dawn.

For Thursday, our high pressure is more centred over the south-east of Europe, and we’ll have a southerly flow.

Again long spells of sunshine, though a little bit of cloud around – more so later in the afternoon. We should get to 15’C so feeling pretty spring-like. Cloud will thicken overnight, perhaps a splash of rain in the latter part, around 7’C.

Friday looks much cloudier, with a bit of showery rain, mostly in the morning. Perhaps some brightness/sunshine in the afternoon, but uncertain. Around 12’C. Further bits of showery rain in the evening and overnight, though rainfall totals pretty low, around 7’C.

The weekend is quite uncertain at this stage. It looks like low pressure over Spain/Portugal/western France will be driving somewhat warmer air through central Europe, which probably reaches us – so temperatures could easily be between 15’C and 17’C, though this is moderate confidence at best.

And the position of low pressure is uncertain, slightly more likely it is far enough away and we’ll see something fairly sunny though with some cloud at times, the slightly less likely outcome sees it a bit closer to the UK, and we’ll have something cloudier with some showers (not a washout by any means) and still some sunny spells possible.

Fairly high uncertainty for the week after, but high pressure close to our north seems a more likely outcome, temperatures back to average at best, but perhaps notably cold instead. Overnight frosts would be likely once more, and maybe mist/fog.

With regards to the sudden stratospheric warming event I mentioned in the seasonal forecast, it still looks likely to happen circa 10th March. So any time two weeks from there onwards we’d probably see the effects…cannot say I’m excited about the possible return to winter for late March or April, but hey ho…let’s see what happens. SSW events don’t always lead to colder weather in north-western Europe, just around 65% of the time.…