It’s the forecast that you’ve all been waiting for (well, most of you) – plenty of sunshine if still on the chilly side, at least for the first few days, and especially overnight. Spring starts tomorrow and I’ve got a reasonably spring-like forecast for you.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

We start the forecast period with high pressure building from the south-west – low pressure towards Spain/Portugal and the jetstream going over the top of the UK, though still quite strong.

Any early mist/fog/low cloud will quickly lift to leave good spells of sunshine. Some fair-weather cloud will bubble up. Still pretty chilly though, 9’C at best. Clear spells for much of the night but mist/fog will tend to form towards dawn, though not necessarily everywhere. Frosty, down to around -2’C.

Saturday starts with mist/fog/low cloud for most, though there is a chance of being sunny from the off. It will gradually break up, with good spells of sunshine for all, and some fair-weather cloud bubbling up. The sun a bit hazier later in the day. 9’C, maybe 10’C, so still on the chilly side. A lot of high cloud for the first half of the night though this will sink south to leave clear skies later, frosty and down to around -1’C or so. A chance of some mist/fog patches by dawn.

Sunday may start with some mist/fog patches (less likely than previous two mornings) but they will lift to leave long spells of sunshine, with a bit of fair-weather cloud possible. Temperatures still on the chilly side, around 9’C. Clear skies overnight and frosty, down to around -2’C. Mist/fog again possible by dawn.

Monday sees early mist/fog/low cloud but again this lifts to good spells of sunshine, though likely with more high cloud than of late, as a very weak weather front moves down from the north-west. Around 9’C, maybe 10’C. Fairly clear skies overnight though some high cloud at times, and again some mist/fog patches forming by dawn. Down to around -2’C and frosty.

By Tuesday we start to pull in a more south-westerly flow, which means milder.

Again some early mist/fog/low cloud patches in places to clear, then good sunny spells, though probably a bit hazier especially in the afternoon. Around 12’C. A frost less likely overnight, still a chance of some mist/fog patches forming, and down to around 1’C.

Wednesday again may have some mist/fog patches to clear but they will lift into long spells of sunshine. Around 13’C, maybe 14’C at a push so definitely feeling quite spring-like. Another fairly cold night, down to around 0’C – frost possible, as will be mist/fog patches by dawn.

Thursday again may see mist/fog/low cloud at first (not everywhere, as per every morning in this forecast), which should be followed by long spells of sunshine. The breeze more southerly and temperatures ticking up further – heck it could be the first “quite warm” day, 15’C, maybe 16’C. 16’C counts as “quite warm” in my book in March…not so come May.

There is a small chance that we cannot quite squeeze out that last pleasant day on Thursday, and low pressure arrives – but 90% likely we will.

This does mean that Friday and into next weekend probably sees low pressure arriving, with rain/showers at times, and temperatures back down a bit – towards 10’C, or so.

I shall try to do the spring forecast this weekend, depending on what time I can find. Have a pleasant weekend and enjoy the sunshine!…

An unsettled but mild start of the week – though tending to become drier later in the week.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

We start the week very much in westerly mode, with low pressure towards Iceland.

Outbreaks of rain to start on Monday, this will clear east by around late morning/lunchtime. This will be followed by sunny spells and scattered showers, perhaps heavy – say a 70% chance of catching one or two. Mild and breezy, 13’C. Clear spells at first overnight but cloud will build – perhaps some rain towards dawn, though will mostly be further south than here. Down to around 5’C.

Tuesday starts fairly cloudy, perhaps a splash of rain. This will clear to leave sunny spells and fair-weather cloud, quite a bit of cloud, and around a 30% chance of a shower. Cooler air around so reaching 9’C, maybe 10’C, and generally quite breezy. Clear skies at first overnight, though cloud building later – down to around 2’C.

Wednesday sees a band of showery rain crossing, right from the start – perhaps arriving just before dawn. Cloudy with occasional showery rain is the theme, some heavy bursts possibly mixed in – a bit more in the way of sunshine from mid-afternoon onwards though showers will remain possible. Breezy and cool, around 9’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though some cloud around, down to around 2’C, give or take.

By Thursday, high pressure makes an attempt to build from the south-west (not something I was especially expecting previously).

Some sunny spells but likely more cloud overall. Temperatures still fairly low, 8’C, maybe 9’C – it is still winter, of course. Clear skies overnight and a frost likely, down to around -1’C – fog patches possible.

Friday starts sunny in places, foggy in others. The fog will lift to bring sunny spells, though quite a lot of fair-weather cloud bubbling up, especially for mid-afternoon. Around 9’C. Clear skies overnight and a frost likely, down to around -1’C – fog patches possible.

Saturday and the first day of meteorological spring looks pleasantly sunny. The odd fog patch first thing will clear if you have one, then sunny with a bit of fair-weather cloud in the afternoon, and a bit of high cloud floating around at times. 9’C, maybe squeezing a 10’C. Some cloud around overnight but more likely sufficient clear spells for a frost, down to roughly 0’C.

Sunday probably has more cloud around, some uncertainty this far away but I’d guess more cloud than sunshine overall. Around 10’C, maybe 11’C.

High pressure should hang on into next week, and temperatures should tick up a little bit more, perhaps almost feeling like spring. Oooh! More confidence on the high pressure than the temperatures though, that will depend on favourable positioning of the high.

Probably this followed by a more unsettled spell, say later next week – but that’s 10 days away which is a very long time.…

Bring on the mild…with some rain and wind too. But first, there are still more cold days to get through.

Thanks to Jo for the photograph.

The general picture to start the week sees the rather large high pressure block to our east slowly being eroded by the rather large low pressure in the Atlantic.

We won’t go full tonto into unsettled weather – the low pressure will slowly head towards Iceland, but it will push weather fronts our way – with much milder air.

Today starts sunny for most, though there is a bit of low cloud floating around on places. Generally it will stay bright with hazy sunshine for much of the day – and sometimes we won’t have the high cloud around either. Still fairly cold and a breeze picking up too, 5’C, maybe getting to 6’C. A lot of high cloud overnight, but a frost still likely – down to around -1’C.

Tuesday will be a day of hazy sunshine, with a covering of high/mid-level cloud all day. Breezy, reaching around 7’C. Generally keeping the high/mid-level cloud and the breeze overnight, a close call on a frost, down to around 1’C – so a frost probable in more sheltered spots.

Wednesday starts cloudy but bright, perhaps some hazy sunshine. Thicker cloud will push east from the first of the weather fronts – perhaps a bit of afternoon rain, but it may well have run out of energy by time it arrives. Still breezy and temperatures creeping up a tad more, 8’C, maybe 9’C. Cloudy overnight, becoming windy, a bit of showery rain possible at times – and around 8’C.

By Thursday the much milder Atlantic air will very much be in control.

A bit of uncertainty over how the weather front progresses, but a broadly cloudy day with occasional rain – perhaps a heavy burst or two, though quite a lot of the day it won’t be raining. Perhaps some brightness later in the afternoon – uncertain though. Around 12’C, give or take and windy. Mostly cloudy overnight, a bit of light rain possible at times and mild – 10’C. I cannot remember our last proper mild night.

Friday will be a windy but mild day. A weather front will be trying to push in from the west, but probably it stays to our west during the day. Some hazy sunshine but plenty of cloud too, and around 13’C. The weather front crossing in the evening and overnight, bringing a spell of rain – potentially some heavy rain involved but uncertain at this stage. Around 10’C.

The weekend continues in the mild flow. Saturday likely starts cloudy, perhaps some rain to clear first thing, but more likely it has already cleared. The cloud should shift, sunny spells replace it – perhaps a shower and around 13’C. It should be semi-pleasant. Cloud will thicken overnight and it will become quite windy, as the next low pressure system approaches. Perhaps rain arriving before dawn, but most likely not until Sunday.

Sunday then sees rain spreading across – timing uncertain, and broadly cloudy and windy otherwise. Around 11’C.

Next week probably will be changeable, some wind/rain, some sunnier days with showers possible. Probably mild to start the week but likely turning somewhat colder again, though not as cold as of late.

Definitely feels a bit better to me – some sunshine whilst it remains cold, then getting milder (but rain at times too). Next full forecast will be Thursday or Friday morning.…

Staying fairly cold, fairly dry and often cloudy (though some sunshine).

Thanks to Phillipa for the photograph.

The stalemate continues between high pressure to our north trying to push colder air in from the east, and the Atlantic-driven weather (our norm) trying to regain control from the west.

Neither will win and we stay in this fairly cold nothingness. But at least there is some sunshine in this forecast…some!

Thursday will again be mostly cloudy, though there is scope for a little brightness at times. Fairly cold, 5’C. The cloud should break up overnight, which would allow a frost – down to around -1’C.

Friday should be reasonably sunny. Some patches of cloud floating around, and some high cloud – especially later in the day. Still fairly cold, 5’C. Cloud thickening overnight as a fairly weak weather front tries to push across, maybe a little bit of rain or some wintry flurries, around 2’C.

Saturday is back to cloudy with a bit of light rain at times. Around 5’C. Cloudy overnight with a bit of light rain at times, around 2’C.

The cold air from the east actually digs back in a bit on Sunday, though it won’t really be noticeable on the ground, as it will still be around 4’C, maybe 5’C. On the cloudier side of the spectrum most likely, though some bright/sunny spells possible. The cloud breaking up a bit overnight, a frost probable, down to around -1’C.

Not much of a change for Monday, though we will now have much colder air to the east, though still not really able to tap into it – and the Atlantic low pressure system just keep spinning around without getting anywhere.

Uncertain on cloud amounts, but more likely on the sunnier side of the spectrum, and still fairly cold at around 5’C. Likely fairly clear skies overnight, assuming so a frost, and down to around -2’C.

Tuesday looks like hazy sunshine for much of the day – though I don’t state such cloud levels with high confidence. Still around 5’C. Quite a bit of cloud and a breeze overnight, a frost possible but slightly more likely not – around 1’C, give or take.

That’s probably about as far as I can go with daily details – the milder air should start to win out by either Wednesday or Thursday.

We should get to the point where temperatures are around 10’C, maybe 12’C – be it by Wednesday perhaps, if not then Thursday/Friday.

It will also become rather windy, again cloudy and some rain at times – though nothing especially heavy or persistent currently looks likely.

It’s still plausible that the cold air could strike back next weekend, but much more likely we’ll stay in the much milder air – I wouldn’t even rule out a 15’C or so next weekend, if the sun comes out.

Have a pleasant weekend…spring isn’t too far away.…

The fairly cold easterly continues, lots of cloud and a bit of rain.

Thanks to Julie for the photograph.

The general picture to start the week is dominated by the high pressure centred over Norway and the associated easterly winds – though the source isn’t particularly cold. Were it properly cold to the east then snow would be more likely here.

So Monday will be cloudy with occasional bits of mostly light rain and drizzle, perhaps a bit more moderate at times, an outside chance of some sleet mixed in. Pretty cold in the easterly breeze at around 4’C. Cloudy overnight, the light rain tending to fade but the odd bit of drizzle still possible, and down to around 2’C.

Tuesday stays cloudy with the odd spot of drizzle, still cold though a lighter breeze, 4’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, the odd spot of light rain/drizzle possible and down to 2’C.

Subtle changes for Wednesday as we lose the easterly. Still a lot of cloud, perhaps a little drizzle, but also a little bit of brightness possible. Around 5’C, maybe 6’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, perhaps a splash of light rain and around 3’C.

Things start to get complicated on Thursday – the easterly fights back, but also weather fronts are edging in from the south-west. Most likely we’ll stay dry and cloudy, perhaps a little brightness, and around 5’C. The weather front continues to edge east overnight but likely stays to our west – assuming so then some cloud and some clear spells, down to around 0’C with a frost possible.

By Friday we are probably at a stalemate, with neither the cold easterly winning, nor the milder or wetter weather from the Atlantic being able to push through.

I say probably, as it still remains plausible one or the other outcome would win through by Friday.

Assuming this scenario, then probably on the sunnier side of the spectrum, still some cloud and still fairly cold – around 5’C. A frost possible overnight.

I cannot say that I’m especially confident for the weekend, but the more likely outcome sees the fairly cold and mostly dry weather hang on – with neither the milder and wetter Atlantic winning (yet…it normally does in the end) or the colder and potentially wintry weather from the east winning.

So around a 70% chance it stays dry, sunshine/cloud amounts uncertain, temperatures roughly around 5’C and overnight frosts possible, depending on cloud amounts.

A 15% chance instead that it gradually becomes milder with some rain at times, or a 15% chance that the cold air digs in properly with some wintry showers.

But most likely, fairly cold and dry.

The fairly cold and dry weather will probably hang on for the start of next week too (same percentage split 70/15/15 as the weekend)…but it is a long way away. More likely we’ll transition into a milder and unsettled spell at some point, though I wouldn’t be too surprised if this was close to the end of February – perhaps early March also unsettled, though I still expect plenty of dry weather in March and some warmth.

Have a pleasant week, I’ll be back either Thursday or Friday morning.…

An easterly is setting up, so becoming colder and fairly mixed, some sunshine, some cloud, some bits of rain – perhaps some wintriness too.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

We start the forecast period with an easterly flow setting up, as high pressure migrates towards Scandinavia. An easterly flow is colder than normal most of the year (bar May to September…and even then North Sea cloud can still make it colder than normal) – though the continent isn’t that cold, so we are not tapping into deep cold or anything. Which makes any precipitation more likely to be rain…but we’ll see.

Today starts sunny in most places, though there will still be the chance of some morning fog patches. From roughly lunchtime onwards, some cloud will float across from the east, but still some sunny spells. Around 7’C. Cloud building overnight, the odd shower possible, down to around 3’C.

Friday will be mostly cloudy with some showers, mostly falling as rain but some sleet/wet snow possibly mixed in. Around 4’C and feeling cold in the easterly wind. The rain and possible sleet/wet snow a bit more continuous in the evening for a time, then more patchy for the rest of the night. Around 3’C.

By Saturday, the flow is more south-easterly and a touch less cold, say 5’C. Staying cloudy, some bits of rain but dry for much of the time. Some uncertainty overnight – cloud may clear, though fog would probably form anyway, otherwise (and slightly more likely) staying cloudy. Around 2’C, give or take.

A lot of uncertainty on cloud amounts on Sunday, it could be anywhere from cloudy all day to sunny all day, though something on the cloudier side of the spectrum is more likely. Temperatures again uncertain, somewhere between 5’C and 9’C. Most likely dry but some occasional drizzle possible if cloudy, and the easterly breeze picking up. Probably still too much cloud and breeze overnight for a frost, down to around 2’C – though something frosty cannot be ruled out. The odd shower possible also.

For Monday we are back in our not especially cold easterly. Not especially cold because weather systems are still going to the north – and Arctic air cannot get into eastern Europe or western Russia.

A fairly cloudy day likely with some showers probable. It will again be a bit colder, 4’C, maybe 5’C – showers should be of rain, but a small chance of sleet/wet snow instead, or at least mixed in. Mostly cloudy overnight with some probably light rain at times, and around 3’C.

For Tuesday, the easterly flow continues, more likely on the cloudier side of the spectrum, some bits of light rain possible, and roughly around 5’C – give or take, still feeling pretty cold in the breeze.

The fairly cold easterly flow will probably gradually turn more southerly as next week goes on, broadly similar weather – often cloudy, some sunshine, some showers possible and temperatures a tad under normal for the time of year.

Perhaps something a bit milder by next weekend…but that’s a long way away.

A lot of uncertainty for the second half of February – that high pressure block to our north-east will take some shifting, so there’s certainly a chance that cold weather could return, perhaps even something colder than this easterly.

Though it may also orientate itself to allow milder southerly flows (my original thoughts for late February, though seems less likely now).

Or perhaps we have a more unsettled spell.

The other factor is the warming of the stratosphere – definitely not a sudden stratospheric warming event (though still a 10% chance of one later in February) – but perhaps enough of a warming to shift weather patterns down here. Cannot say I understand the vagaries of stratospheric and tropospheric interplay enough to know what impact it might have…but if anything maybe it increases the chance of an unsettled spell for the second half of February from what I’ve read this week…though I stress that I’m not sure.

Of course, when I am sure what the weather will be in the second half of February, you will know too. Have a good weekend.…