High pressure gradually taking control with the jetstream heading north – not totally dry yet though. Broadly normal temperatures but maybe a bit more chilly later next week.

Thanks to Jo for the photograph.

So the general picture right now sees the Azores High ridging in, deflecting low pressure systems away to our north – but some weather fronts getting through, including one for this morning.

Friday starts with outbreaks of rain, one or two heavy bursts. This will clear quickly, but a lot of cloud will remain, the odd bright spell, but also some drizzle possible at times. Breezy, reaching around 8’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, perhaps some drizzle and mist around too. Down to around 4’C.

Saturday (hello February!) looks mostly cloudy, with some mist and drizzle possible at times. Perhaps sunnier by the end of the day, but I wouldn’t hang my coat on it. Around 6’C. Cloud should clear overnight, assuming so then we’ll have a frost – roughly down to around -1’C, though it is a fairly close call with a weather front close to our west, and potentially there is some layer of cloud and temperatures closer to 2’C.

Sunday looks sunny – a risk of some areas of cloud at times as that weak weather front weakens further and pushes east, but more likely it actually stays sunny, or mostly sunny, throughout. Around 7’C – which is where we should be for the time of year. Uncertain on cloud amounts overnight – unlikely either completely cloudy or completely clear, somewhere in between, which could mean a frost and down to around -1’C, or somewhere closer to 2’C.

Again uncertain on cloud amounts for Monday. We will remain under the control of high pressure, but with weak weather fronts bringing some cloud across at times, more likely a mixture of cloudy spells and sunny spells – an outright gloomy or outright sunny day seems unlikely. Around 9’C and quite breezy. Some cloud, some clear spells overnight, around 2’C, give or take.

By Tuesday, high pressure remains just about in control, though another weather front will be trying to cross.

Some uncertainty on when the weather front arrives – any time from afternoon to overnight, and likely there won’t be much rain when it does. Beforehand, probably on the cloudier side of the spectrum, but some sunshine probable. Around 10’C and quite windy in a south-westerly flow.

High pressure then builds again, right over the UK, on Wednesday. Most likely a sunny day and around 8’C. A frost possible overnight, perhaps mist/fog patches and roughly down to 0’C – give or take.

Thursday more likely stays on the sunny side of the spectrum – perhaps an easterly flow starting up, so maybe a chilly breeze, and around 7’C.

For Friday and into next weekend, more likely high pressure remains in control to our east – potentially quite a stonking high pressure system somewhere over Russia/Siberia – maybe into eastern Europe too.

Too early to say whether it will be cloudy or sunny, temperatures more likely on the fairly cold side, say around 5’C, overnight frost/fog possible. Cannot rule out a weather front bringing some rain at this stage, but dry will be the main theme.

As I’ve been saying for ages, I expect much of February to be dominated by high pressure. Positioning is always key to conditions, both in terms of cloud/sunshine amounts and temperatures – at the moment average or slightly colder than normal conditions look more likely to dominate, at least for the first half, but I wouldn’t want to rule out cold spells, nor early spring pseudo-warmth – the orientation wouldn’t need to change too much for a notable cold spell, things would have to change more for pseudo-warmth, but the potential is there, more so in the latter part of February.

Also there are rumblings up top in the stratosphere, at least in the modelling. I’m still unconvinced, but the chance of a sudden stratospheric warming event has increased from 5% to maybe 20%.

Such events bring a good chance of significant cold spells to Europe, including the UK – though the very earliest one could affect our weather down here in the troposphere, with a minimum lag time of 2 weeks, and a very earliest possible event date around mid-February, is therefore late February, more likely we’d be looking at March.

I’m still of the expectation that it won’t happen, and we’ll have a drier and warmer March than normal…but it’s worth watching. And no, I cannot afford a holiday to escape it…yet!

Have a good weekend.…

Unsettled to start the week with further wind/rain/showers, high pressure taking control somewhat by the weekend.

Thanks to Jonathon, again, for the photograph.

We start the week with Storm Herminia in control, named by the Spanish Met Office (we don’t rename previously named storm systems).

With low pressure so in control, it means a day of sunshine and showers – fairly limited sunshine, plenty of showers, some heavy, perhaps a rumble of thunder, a small chance of sleet/hail mixed into the heaviest. Around 7’C in a strong and gusty wind. Showers continue through the night, becoming more organised if anything, some heavy ones remaining. Still windy, 8’C.

For Tuesday, low pressure will be over England, slowly moving east. Lots of cloud, a bit of sunshine and plenty of showers – a bit less punch to them than the day before but still a chance of some fairly heavy ones. Still windy, but again, less so than Monday. Around 8’C. Showers fading in the evening, cloud gradually breaking up overnight to leave clear skies before dawn – down to around 2’C.

Some uncertainty for Wednesday, a new low pressure system will track across northern France – quite where the northern extent of the rain will be is uncertain. So, after a bright start, I’d suggest a roughly 30% chance it becomes cloudy with some rain, a 30% chance it becomes cloudy but stays mostly dry, and a 40% chance we keep hazy sunshine. I won’t have time to update beforehand, due to work, so you’ll need to check other sources tomorrow if you need certainty on this. It might even be Wednesday morning before we can be sure of the track. Around 7’C. A chilly night – if the rain stayed to our south, then a frost possible.

Thursday looks sunny. A bit of cloud around, mostly later in the day but otherwise sunshine. Temperatures pretty normal, 6’C, maybe 7’C. Frost likely to start the night, down to around 0’C, but temperatures picking up a tad as cloud increases in the second half of the night.

By Friday, we start to see the Azores high having more impact on our weather, though some weaker weather fronts will progress.

One such weather front will cross on Friday, most likely in the morning – some uncertainty on details right now, perhaps very minimal rain, perhaps a few hours of more moderate rain. Perhaps brighter later in the day, and around 8’C. Frost and/or fog possible overnight.

Saturday probably on the cloudy side, some uncertainty on any fog and how long that lingers for. Temperatures somewhere between 4’C and 8’C – on the lower end if there is fog that lingers. Cloudy overnight, another weather front crossing later in the night which may bring a bit of rain. Around 7’C.

Sunday probably starts cloudy, some bits of rain from the fairly weak weather front. Sunnier later. Around 9’C, maybe a tad more with a slightly milder influence around.

The trend next week should be for high pressure to gradually gain more influence – we may see another fairly weak weather front at some point in the early part of the week.

More likely on the cloudier side of the spectrum, if not outright cloudy, but still too early to be sure…we sure surely due a sunny high pressure system?! Not that the weather works like that!

Next forecast probably Friday morning, hopefully no more short-notice updates required.…

The next batch of rain is incoming for around 9pm onwards, which will be heavy at times, perhaps briefly very heavy/squally.

However, it the the potential for some damaging gusts in a very localised area that I’m writing about.

The higher-resolution models all seem to have a defined hook shape which suggests there is a chance of a tornado somewhere over the south, south-east or central England, and damaging gusts of wind somewhat more widely, though again in a localised manner. Most places will likely avoid such damaging gusts.

I do stress that any tornado which occurs, if it occurs, will be in a very small area – ie maybe a 1 mile stretch somewhere over south, south-east or central England. Damaging gusts would be a bit more widespread, but still only some areas. Most likely, it will just be a bit windy…but the risk of some damaging gusts of wind is there.

Timing roughly around midnight, and would only be for a short spell.

Impossible to give any more detail.…

Well that was a nice early wake-up thanks to the winds from Storm Éowyn this morning – and the disturbed spell will continue.

The winds have already peaked for us – but in Northern Ireland, southern/western Scotland, they could easily see 100mph gusts – hence the red warning up there.

Nothing like that is expected down here, but there could easily be short-term upgrades in forecasted wind speeds over the next few days.

Thanks to Jonathon for the photograph of the passing rain band yesterday, as it provided some fairly wild conditions.

As alluded to, the general set-up is a disturbed one, with the jetstream in full flow – powered by the plunge of very cold air into North America earlier this week.

Early rain will clear on Friday, likely before I finish writing, and strong winds will gradually ease during the day. Otherwise bright, with hazy sunshine at times and reaching around 9’C. Cloudy for most of the night, some showery rain (with a small chance of some wintriness mixed in) in the few hours after midnight – clear skies probable by dawn, though some uncertainty as to how quick the showery rain (and maybe sleet/wet snow mixed in) clears – perhaps still some around at dawn, but more likely it has cleared before dawn.

Saturday most likely starts bright, with hazy sunshine – though as I mentioned, there is a small chance that this overnight showery rain is still hanging around first thing. Either way, it will clear to leave a fairly sunny but fairly chilly day, with temperatures around 6’C. Clear (ish) skies at first, perhaps a slight frost as temperatures drop to around 0’C, but then it will become cloudier in the second half of the night and another band of showers will cross – more likely rain, but again a small chance of some sleet/wet snow mixed in.

A shower still possible first thing on Sunday, but it will be broadly dry in the morning, broadly cloudy but some sunny/hazy breaks possible. Rain arriving around midday, give or take, it looks like it will come through in two batches – the first for around 4 hours, then a gap where it likely remains cloudy with still some showery bits at times – then another batch arriving in the evening, timing a bit more uncertain, some heavy/very heavy rain likely at times in the second batch. Windy again, especially when raining, reaching around 8’C. The second batch of rain clearing at some point overnight – clear skies following, though a shower will be possible.

Low pressure still dominating our weather on Monday.

It will be a day of sunshine and showers, driven inland by what is likely to be strong winds. More sunshine earlier in the day, more cloud as the day goes on, some showers likely to be heavy and squally, an outside chance of hail/thunder or some wintriness. Reaching around 8’C, but temperatures will drop notably in the showers. Further showers overnight as low pressure moves east – around 6’C and likely windy.

Tuesday looks fairly cloudy with some bits and pieces of showery rain, as the low pressure moves towards France and starts to fade out. Around 8’C, though could be a couple either side.

Wednesday then likely sees the next low pressure system arriving, so a further spell of rain likely on Wednesday.

Thursday more likely then sees the low pressure hanging around but fading, so cloudy with a bit of occasional rain.

Probably for Friday and into the weekend the jetstream will be tracking to the north of the UK, which would then allow high pressure to build once more. Too early to be certain of this, and too early to know whether it would be lead to more days of dull, cloudy weather, or whether we might actually get some sunshine. Though I’d keep expectations low.

As I’ve been saying for a while (months?!) I expect February to be dominated by high pressure, and my expectations have not changed. So a drier than normal month, though again whether we end up with more incessant cloud, or we get some sunshine, will depend on positioning of high pressure – and it is way too early to know.

Probably it is a milder month than normal (not exactly sticking my neck out…most months are milder/warmer than normal nowadays) – if things align perfectly in the second half of the month, the odd quite warm day would be plausible, likewise I wouldn’t be too surprised if high pressure headed north at some point and allowed colder, continental flows. And it could still rain at times, but the emphasis should be on dry, settled weather.

And I still expect March to be dominated by high pressure, and hopefully some early spring warmth too.

Have a good weekend.…

Just a quick note on today’s potential developments.

A band of rain is crossing the country west to east, quite sporadic rain but somewhere between 12 and 2pm there is the chance for some really squally conditions – some very heavy rain, some very strong gusts of wind, perhaps thunder/lightning…and a very small chance of a tornado somewhere over the south of England.

It might not come to much, but likewise there is the potential for something rather wild for 30 minutes to an hour.

Sunny spells and the odd shower will follow for the afternoon.

Full update tomorrow morning, all being well.…

It’s time to fire up the jetstream.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph, if perhaps a little optimistic.

The general picture sees a large plunge of cold air heading to North America early this week, which is the trigger to fire up the jetstream over the North Atlantic Ocean – so in a few day’s time, we’ll become wet and windy.

Benign conditions for the start of the week though.

Monday will be a mostly cloudy day. A bit of sunshine is possible at times, a bit of drizzle or light rain is probable at times. Still chilly though less so than the last few days, reaching around 6’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 1’C – a frost possible if you get a few clear breaks, and fog could form too.

Not much change for Tuesday, an old low pressure system not connected to the jetstream will be heading towards Portugal/France/Spain – but for us another cloudy day, quite probably misty/foggy in the morning too. There is scope for some sunny spells, but more likely it stays cloudy, and around 5’C. Cloudy overnight, the aforementioned low pressure probably bringing some general light rain at times. Around 2’C.

Wednesday (my birthday!) will be cloudy with some light rain to stay. Drier in the afternoon, most likely staying cloudy but a chance of some bright spells. Still on the chilly side, around 4’C. Some clear spells likely overnight, down to around 0’C and frost possible.

Things start to change properly on Thursday, as we usher in an unsettled spell. Sunny to start the day, but cloud will thicken with a spell of rain arriving. Timing still uncertain, but broadly mid/late morning for an arrival, likely some heavy rain, though it will push through quite quickly – say 3-4 hours of rain. Sunny spells and showers to follow. Windy whilst raining, and reaching around 8’C. Clear skies at first overnight, perhaps a frost but then the next weather front arrives during the night with more rain – exact timing uncertain.

By Friday, the jetstream will be in a full-on rage.

Wet and windy to start the day, sunny spells to follow – perhaps with a blustery shower as it will stay windy. More likely we’ll just remain with strong winds, but there is a possibility of gales – more likely further north than us, but worth keeping an eye on if you have plans. Reaching around 9’C. Uncertain on conditions overnight, though likely less windy.

Low confidence for Saturday, but more likely a respite with sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud. Around 8’C, give or take.

Again low confidence of details for Sunday, but more likely either showers or rain, and around 10’C.

Highly likely next week starts with further spells of heavy rain and strong winds – how long this unsettled spell will last for is uncertain, though more likely it lasts into next weekend than doesn’t.

Settled weather looks more likely for the second half, perhaps last two-thirds of February, but early February remains uncertain.

Some early spring warmth in March still looks probable…as much as anything can two months away.…

The cold spell is over, but we are back into a land of dull once more.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

The general picture sees high pressure centred over Germany – yet another “if only it was summer” set-up, with a milder south-westerly flow.

Thursday will be a mostly cloudy day, some patchy mist/fog though that will lift if you have any, otherwise a lot of cloud, perhaps a little drizzle. Around 8’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, down to around 4’C.

Plenty of cloud for Friday, perhaps some mist/fog and/or drizzle at times, but there’s more of a chance of a few sunny spells too. Around 7’C. A few clear spells overnight, amongst the cloudy spells – which will lead to fog forming in places once more. Down to around 1’C – a chance of a frost, more so in sheltered spots.

Saturday most likely will be dull and cloudy, some mist/fog around – especially in the morning, some drizzle possible too. A small chance that it may brighten up in the afternoon, but most likely it doesn’t. Around 4’C – quite chilly once more. Mostly dull and cloudy overnight, mist/fog patches forming once more – temperatures close to 0’C so a frost possible.

Sunday sees high pressure start to fade somewhat, but no changes yet in our weather – dull and cloudy, mist/fog will lift though, drizzle possible and around 3’C so pretty chilly. A weak weather front may bring a little rain overnight – and herald a chance.

By Monday we start to see low pressure systems edge in from the west – though at the same time high pressure will try to build over Scandinavia, more likely this means it’s an unsettled spell that struggles to get going properly, though there is a small chance we could end up in a wintry easterly flow down the line.

Details uncertain for Monday but more likely we are looking at brighter skies than we’ve had, though perhaps a little early showery rain to clear. Around 7’C.

Tuesday, again details uncertain but probably dry with at least some hazy sunshine. Around 8’C.

Wednesday or Thursday then probably see some showery rain move through.

Perhaps this becomes something more widely unsettled for a short time, though highly uncertain at this stage. An unsettled weekend looks more likely than a settled weekend, but I state this with low confidence.

Broadly speaking in the weeks to follow, dry is more likely than wet, mild is more likely that otherwise – but that doesn’t rule out short unsettled spells, or short cold spells.

Have a pleasant weekend – I’ll be back on Monday all being well.…

Staying mostly dry and temperatures recovering to normal – the cold spell is ending, though nothing especially mild replaces it.

Apologies for the lack of updates/responses – I’ve again been laid low by one of the plethora of illnesses going around. Sigh.

And thanks to Becky for the photograph, first time in a while that I’ve had quite a few sent in.

So the general picture sees high pressure in control, and we start to see more of a south-westerly flow incoming, which will reduce the chill.

Sunday is a mostly cloudy day, with some early mist/fog. Perhaps a few sunny breaks later in the afternoon. Reaching around 4’C, still pretty cold. Quite a lot of cloud overnight, though some clear breaks at times, down to around 0’C with a frost probable for most.

Monday looks generally bright with hazy sunshine for much of the day – a very weak weather front is trying to head down from the north-west but making little progress towards us. Still on the cold side, 5’C. Some level of high/mid-level cloud remaining overnight, which probably stops a frost, but a close call, down to around 1’C.

Uncertainty on cloud amounts for Tuesday, likely there are both sunny spells and cloudy spells during the day, it could easily be mostly sunny, mostly cloudy or somewhere in between. A spot of drizzle not impossible. A bit less cold, 7’C. Fog probably forming overnight, and a chilly night – down to around 1’C.

Wednesday likely starts foggy. Again some uncertainty, this time over how long it stays foggy – plausible it stays foggy or misty all day, but more likely the fog will lift to leave a sunny day. Around 8’C, assuming the fog lifts, lower if not. Fog possible overnight, down to around 1’C, a frost possible.

The fog should clear more readily on Thursday, though still could take a little while. Sunny skies will replace the fog once it does lift. Around 8’C. More in the way of cloud/mist/fog again overnight, though fog itself less prevalent. Down to around 3’C.

Not a lot of change for Friday and into next weekend – often sunny, some cloud at times, and temperatures broadly around 8’C. Chilly nights, fog and/or frost will remain possible.

Probably becoming breezier as the weekend goes on, and maybe a weather front might bring a little rain later next Sunday – but this is quite far away.

The week after more likely heralds a more unsettled spell than we’ve seen for a while.

Further ahead, I think broadly speaking high pressure over Europe will keep us mild for most of February, though short cold spells will be plausible, and at times weather fronts will make it this far south, with short unsettled spells being probable.

March I’m still hopeful for an early spring with high pressure still likely to be dominant, and hopefully positioned to allow some relative warmth at times. A drier, sunnier and warmer month than normal still feels like the more likely outcome.

Unless we get a sudden stratospheric warming event, which would likely scupper our chances of a warm start to spring. There is currently no sign of an SSW occurring this winter – they happen roughly once every other winter, weirdly we had 3 such events last winter.

Next full forecast will probably be on Thursday morning.…

Another cold week with some possible wintry surprises.

I hope you enjoyed your snowfall (well, I assume you all got at least a slushy and temporary covering). I know I said I would update on Saturday, but I was consumed by migrating multiple websites, and trying to take advantage of the sunlight to start painting. Plus, I still wasn’t sure – it was very marginal, though I think my more likely outcome from the day before was more or less alright.

Thanks to Sue for the photograph.

We start the week with low pressure in charge, but this will pull away towards Scandinavia and allow cold air to flood back south.

Monday therefore starts cloudy with outbreaks of rain, generally not heavy but the odd heavy burst possible. A small chance of some sleet/wet snow mixed in, but mostly it should be rain. Also some strong winds too. From around late morning, or a little after, the rain will have cleared and the sun will come out – with some cloud too, but definitely some sunshine. An outside chance of a shower. 12’C to start the day, dropping to around 3’C as the rain clears, perhaps squeezing 5’C in the sunshine later, and the wind lessening as the day goes on. A fairly cold night overnight, down to around 1’C – probably too much cloud and wind for a frost, but a marginal call. Also a chance of one or two wintry showers – don’t be surprised if there is a light covering of snow in places in the morning, say a 40% chance of catching a wintry shower.

Tuesday will be another rather cold day, though a mixture of sunny spells and areas of cloud, rather breezy too. A 30% chance of a shower making it this far inland – if early in the day then more likely wintry, if in the afternoon then more likely rain. 5’C. Clear skies for most of the night, widely down to around -2’C, perhaps a bit more in places. Some high cloud by dawn.

On Wednesday we get to play the will it snow game again. A bright start to the day but cloud will thicken as low pressure pushes up from the south-west again (or tries to).

Will it get this far north is the first question? Probably but it’s a close call, it could stay to our south and stay cloudy here.
Will it turn to snow? Again, probably, but don’t be surprised if there is some rain to start.
How much snow, if it snows? Probably not much, maybe 1cm tops.

Temperature around 2’C. This will move away overnight, skies clear and the breeze turns northerly, widely down to around -3’C, but possibly colder. Ice may well be problematic, especially if it has snowed, or even rained during the day.

Thursday looks mostly sunny, a bit of cloud. Temperatures struggling to around 2’C – feeling colder in the northerly breeze. Clear skies for much of the night, and a widespread frost. Roughly down to around -3’C but a bit colder is certainly possible. Some high cloud by dawn.

For Friday we have another low pressure system, of sorts, trying to move in.

So a fairly cloudy and cold day is expected, perhaps some hazy sunshine at times. The weather front looks like it will decay – perhaps fizzling out before it arrives, or perhaps bringing a bit of light snow – or light rain (too marginal to call) but limited precipitation either way. Around 2’C. Cloudy overnight.

Details currently sketchy for the weekend, but I’m fairly confident high pressure will hang on, probably it remains cold, though maybe a degree or so less than during the week.

Possible there is a weather front around bringing a bit of rain (maybe some wintriness but less likely) – more likely it remains dry.

Uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts for the weekend.

Into next week, more likely high pressure hangs on, but also more likely fog returns and it remains dull but mostly dry, bar a little drizzle. Something milder possible, but more likely around 5’C give or take.…

Most cold, though with a mild and wet blip…preceded by snow though.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

And may I also wish you all a happy and hopefully sunnier new year.

The general picture going into this weekend sees the cold air established, with low pressure to our south-west moving in, which will bring a temporary mild blip.

It’s a cold and frosty start – we got down to around -3’C last night. A mostly sunny day bar a bit of cloud floating around at times, more likely this afternoon. Cold, 3’C, maybe 4’C. High cloud spreading across tonight, though not sufficient cloud to stop a frost – down to around -2’C.

Saturday starts bright with some hazy sunshine. After that there is quite a bit of uncertainty, though precipitation will arrive at some point, perhaps as early as 2pm, perhaps not until 8pm – I’m more minded by the earlier part of this window. Probably there is at least a short spell of snow to start – I cannot 100% promise this, but 1-2 hours of snow falling seems reasonable, with perhaps a slushy mess or even a small covering of snow.

However, as much as I wouldn’t rule it out being mostly rain, a 3-6 hour spell of snow with more in the way of disruption remains plausible too. There is also an outside chance of freezing rain.

It will all turn to rain at some point during the evening or overnight but given that the arrival time and amount of time it could snow are both uncertain, when it turns to rain is also uncertain – but it will do, and any snow will melt. 3’C at best and becoming breezy.

Outbreaks of rain overnight and slowly becoming milder.

It’ll probably need an update tomorrow! But do also keep an eye on the Met Office warnings, which normally update around 10/11am ish each day.

Sunday will be cloudy and mild with outbreaks of rain at times, some heavy – but not always raining. Reaching 12’C and mild. Further showery rain overnight, temperatures dropping once more – a small chance it turns back to sleet/wet snow by dawn.

Monday sees the low pressure clear east – and colder air spread back south.

Early rain and perhaps sleet/wet snow will gradually clear east – timing uncertain. It will likely remain at least fairly cloudy, but should slowly brighten up. An outside chance of a wintry shower later in the day. Reaching around 4’C. Skies probably clear enough for a frost overnight, down to around -2’C. A small chance of a snow shower though, which could lead to slippery surfaces in the morning should you catch one.

Tuesday looks mostly sunny, some cloud floating around perhaps, a wintry shower cannot be discounted. Around 4’C. Frost likely overnight, fog possible, down to around -2’C.

The more likely outcome for Wednesday through to Friday is that we stay cold and sunny, daytime temperatures around 2’C to 3’C, overnight temperatures roughly -3’C, but give and take – frosts for sure.

However, it’s plausible that we see low pressure approaching from the south-west and we play the will it snow or rain game again, at some point. Should this happen, a mild and wet blip could occur, if low pressure pushes far enough north, but the main theme will be for it to remain cold.

Next weekend more likely cold and sunny…but again, low pressure could try to push up from the south-west.

I’ll try to update tomorrow when the picture becomes clearer, but also keep an eye out on the Met Office forecasts/warnings if you have plans for tomorrow afternoon/evening.…