Two calm days to come but then all change – wind and rain to welcome 2025, followed by an Arctic blast.

Photograph again comes from me of the gloom in Hull over Christmas…though you could pretend it is Reading, as you cannot really tell.

So the general set-up sees high pressure still dominating over Europe to our south, but low pressure systems are developing to our west.

Monday starts cloudy, shock horror, but it should break up at times to allow a bit of sunshine – mostly this afternoon. Around 9’C so not as chilly as it has been. Also becoming breezy. Mostly cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of light rain/drizzle and down to around 7’C.

New Year’s Eve will be rather cloudy, but at times the cloud should thin to allow some hazy sunshine – always that higher layer of cloud. Becoming windy, and mild at around 11’C. Cloudy with strong winds overnight, perhaps some bits of light rain but the main weather front unlikely to shift this far south until the next day – still around 11’C.

New Year’s Day starts cloudy and windy, with the odd bit of rain. During the morning the winds will strengthen further to around gale force, and rain will arrive more likely from late morning, exact timing TBC and could easily arrive any time from around 9am, or maybe not until 3pm. The rain heavy, probably around 4-6 of rain, and it looks like there will be a squall band embedded, so 20-30 minutes of very heavy rain and really squally gusts of wind. Mild, 12’C. An outside chance of something wintry as it clears – but more likely it clears before cold air arrives. Winds easing as the rain clears, and skies gradually clear overnight – a frost possible, temperatures down to around 1’C, though a bit give and take.

By Thursday, high pressure is to our north-west and Arctic air starts to spill down.

It will be a mostly sunny day, a bit of cloud around and a very small chance of a stray wintry shower – but otherwise cold and sunny in the northerly breeze. Around 3’C. Clear skies overnight with a sharp frost. Easily down to -4’C, maybe even lower.

Friday again sees sunshine all day, a bit of cloud possible but mostly just pure sunshine – if rather cold. Reaching just 2’C, maybe 3’C. Clear skies likely for most of the night, though a chance of some mist/fog/low cloud forming by dawn. Down to around -3’C, but could easily be a couple of degrees either side.

By Saturday we start to see low pressure systems try to head our way – one from the north which would extend the cold spell if it wins, one from the south-west which could bring widespread snow, but more likely it would end the cold spell.

Too early to know which will win, but my money would be on the one from the south-west. For Saturday itself, low confidence but slightly more likely we remain in the cold and dry air, sunshine likely, though perhaps hazy by this stage. And again around 3’C at best.

And then from Saturday night into Sunday, well, highly uncertain.

The slightly more likely outcome would be for low pressure to head up from the south-west, bringing rain, much milder air and strong winds, though perhaps preceded by disruptive snow for a couple of hours.

The slightly less likely outcome would be for showery rain, sleet and snow to spread down from the north – this would also lead to an extension of the cold spell into the next week.

Less likely still (but possible) would be for the low pressure to come up from the south-west and kind of slide across the south of the UK, bringing snow, possibly disruptive levels, and we stay cold.

Or maybe neither low pressure quite makes it, and we just stay cold and dry.

Roughly a 35/30/25/10 chance split of the 4 broad outcomes, in my view.

So a very interesting time ahead for weather forecasting, and for those that want snow…well…there’s a small to moderate chance next weekend.…

Mostly dry and mostly cloudy until next year.

Thanks to Isabel for the photograph.

So the general picture sees high pressure in control, centred to our east over the continent. Something I expect will repeat as a pattern over the remaining winter months.

Today will be cloudy, with mist/fog possible at times, especially this morning, some drizzle also possible. Reaching around 7’C. Cloudy overnight, drizzle remains possible, around 5’C.

Saturday will be similarly dull, with some mist/fog possible in the morning, some occasional drizzle too. Around 7’C. Mostly cloudy overnight though a few clear breaks. Mist/fog may develop again towards dawn, though patchy. Down to around 3’C.

Sunday starts cloudy and dull once more, perhaps a spot of drizzle, but later in the afternoon we should see some sunshine. Around 10’C or so. Somewhat clear skies at first overnight, but tending to cloud over later, down to around 4’C, quite breezy.

Monday starts to see weather fronts edge south, but they’ll struggle to make the south of Scotland, let alone England. Most likely we’ll be on the cloudier side of the spectrum, but we should see some sunny spells also. Around 9’C and breezy. Cloudy overnight, some light rain/drizzle possible, and around 7’C.

New Year’s Eve will be cloudy, with weather fronts very slowly edging closer – some light rain/drizzle possible at times. Breezy and mild, around 10’C or a tad more.

We then transition to something unsettled, but timing is uncertain.

New Year’s Eve night will be cloudy and windy – most likely the rain doesn’t arrive until New Year’s Day, but certainly possible, say 20% chance, it arrives on New Year’s Eve night.

So, rain at some point on New Year’s Day (probably!) with strong winds likely.

This should then be followed by something colder and drier for late next week and into next weekend – overnight frosts possible. An small chance of wintry showers.

And then, probably, we go back to cloudy and mild for the week after, with high pressure over the south.

Next forecast will be Monday or Tuesday morning. Have a good weekend!…

Becoming mild, and mostly dry and cloudy – with some variation.

Photograph comes from myself, in King’s Cross this weekend.

We start the week still in this chilly north-westerly, but high pressure is about to move in from the west, bringing milder air.

So Monday starts sunny. Cloud will gradually thicken during the day, with some bits and pieces of mostly light rain by late afternoon, early evening. Reaching 6’C in a north-westerly breeze. Cloudy with a bit of light rain/drizzle at times overnight, 8’C.

Christmas Eve looks fairly cloudy but there should be some sunny breaks at times, perhaps a spot of drizzle at some point also. Milder, 12’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, around 8’C.

Christmas Day looks mostly cloudy, the odd sunny break possible though. Around 10’C, maybe 11’C. Mostly cloudy overnight, perhaps a spot of drizzle and around 8’C.

Boxing Day looks mostly cloudy. A few sunny breaks possible, a bit of drizzle possible and reaching around 10’C. Most likely cloudy overnight though there is a chance of some clear spells – any clear spells would just lead to fog forming though. Roughly around 7’C.

Friday is most likely mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks, though some uncertainty by this stage on cloud amounts. Again around 10’C. Most likely cloudy overnight, though again some uncertainty and hence clear spells with fog forming a possibility. Most likely around 7’C, but any clear spells would lead to something colder.

Saturday is probably cloudy and around 9’C.

Sunday is probably cloudy and around 9’C, or at least on the cloudier side of the spectrum.

Suggestions of something more unsettled for New Year’s Eve – this is still more than a week away so take it as a vague guide for now, but this may herald a change, and not just in which year to write.

Not quite sure what the change will be yet, though it would at least bring a chance of a change to something colder, perhaps with some frost.

Generally I do expect high pressure to control our weather in January, so a drier month than normal.

Time for me to wish you all a Merry Christmas – or if you don’t celebrate Christmas, then enjoy any extra days off work and the generally more chilled vibes.

Next forecast will either be Thursday or Friday.…

Colder for the weekend, milder for Christmas, a bit of rain, a bit of sun and perhaps even a flake of snow.

It could definitely be worse.

Thanks to Christel for the photograph.

The general picture sees high pressure to the south, low pressure to the north, and we are in a westerly flow. Pretty standard really.

Friday morning starts pleasant with spells of hazy sunshine. Cloud will thicken during the morning with some patchy rain in the afternoon – not amounting to much, though the odd heavyish burst late afternoon before it clears away. Around 8’C and breezy. Clear skies for a time overnight, though cloud thickening again later. Down to around 3’C.

Saturday starts cloudy as another fairly weak weather front crosses. Some patchy mostly light rain around, the odd heavyish burst possible. Some sunny spells possible from late morning onwards, still the odd splash of rain possible, but it gradually become drier and sunnier (if hazy) as the afternoon goes on. Briefly milder, reaching around 12’C and also rather windy. Colder air spreading down overnight once more, down to around 3’C. Still quite windy, and a mixture of clear skies, some cloud and perhaps a shower or two – which should be of rain, but not impossible to see a wintry mix.

Sunday will be a cold day in a strong north-westerly wind. Sunny at times, but the wind will be strong enough to push wintry showers quite far inland, more likely falling as rain or sleet – but snow or hail possible, at least in the morning hours. Reaching around 6’C but feeling colder in the strong wind. A chilly night but probably too much wind for a frost, down to around 3’C.

Monday will be a chilly day but the wind will fade and there will be sunshine for much of it, though increasingly hazy as the afternoon goes on. Around 6’C. Bits and pieces of light rain in the evening and overnight, and temperatures ticking up a bit as milder air arrives, say 8’C.

For Christmas Eve we have high pressure to the south asserting more influence again. Yet another “if only it was summer” set up.

A mostly cloudy day, some bits of light rain possible at times, but also some sunny breaks probable. Mild, around 12’C. Most likely fairly cloudy overnight, around 9’C.

Christmas Day will more likely be on the cloudier side of the spectrum, though I wouldn’t rule out a sunnier day. Mild, around 11’C.

Boxing Day looks similarly calm – more likely to be on the cloudier side of the spectrum, if not outright cloudy, but again not possible to rule out a sunnier day. Around 9’C.

Calm and settled conditions are likely for Friday and next weekend, cloud amounts uncertain though something on the cloudier side of the spectrum more likely than not. Should we have clear skies at night, then fog/frost possible, but again, cloudy skies more likely than clear skies.

Broadly this theme should persist well into January, high pressure often over the south of the UK, leading to settled conditions for much of the time, often cloudy, probably mild at times.

Some variations to the theme as high pressure shifts around, short cold spells, some weather fronts, etc – but settled and fairly cloud conditions should be the main trend for the next few weeks.

Next forecast will either be Monday or Tuesday next week.

I wish you all a pleasant weekend – I shall hopefully be getting over this really stinking cold/bug/covid that has knocked me out this week, ready to enjoy Christmas. At least my shopping is done!…

More gloom to come, though some variations on the theme.

Photograph comes from me on a dreary, drizzly morning the other day.

The general set-up is one where we are in-between influences – our current high pressure slipping away to the east, low pressure to our north and south, and the next high pressure to our west. Meteorological no-man’s land.

So Friday remains cloudy, dull with drizzle at times. A chance of an occasional glimpse of sunshine. Pretty chilly, 5’C. Mostly cloudy with bits and pieces of light rain or drizzle overnight, 5’C.

Saturday starts cloudy with some bits of light rain. But this clears south-east as a north-westerly breeze picks up – and there will be some sunshine from roughly midday onwards. Probably still some cloud, the sun perhaps hazy – but some sunshine at least. 7’C. Clear-ish skies at first but cloud thickening as the night goes on, down to around 3’C at first but picking up a bit later.

Sunday is back to cloudy, again perhaps a spot of light rain at times. Cannot rule out a bit of sunshine at times though, more likely in the morning. Much milder than it has been, around 12’C and breezy. Mostly cloudy overnight, the odd bit of light rain/drizzle and around 9’C.

Monday sees high pressure now centred over France – a heat-lover’s dream were it summer.

Some uncertainty on cloud amounts, more likely on the cloudier side of the spectrum with limited sunshine, but I’m not especially confident – there’s a small chance of a much sunnier day instead. Around 12’C with a bit of a breeze. Most likely cloudy overnight, around 8’C.

Tuesday most likely is cloudy, or mostly so – weather fronts are likely to be pushing in by the end of the day so the chance of some bits of rain later in the day will increase, and becoming quite windy too. Around 10’C. Cloudy with some showery rain overnight, around 10’C – and windy.

Most likely Wednesday will be cloudy with some rain at some points in the day, around 11’C and most likely windy too.

For Thursday and Friday, a north-westerly flow looks more likely. So temperatures back down around normal, say 8’C, windy, some sunshine, perhaps some showers at times.

With something broadly similar to that next weekend being more likely.

Any chance of a White Christmas? Well, it’s not possible to rule it out, but I’d give a chance of snow on Christmas Day no higher than a 2% chance as it stands. Frost around an 8% chance.

More likely we’ll be in a mild westerly flow.

Have a good weekend…I have to brave Oxford Street tomorrow to finish the Christmas shopping…yuck.…

The storm has gone and boring is back. Fairly cold, fairly dry and mostly cloudy this week.

Thanks to Chris for the photograph.

So the general picture to start the week sees the remnants of Storm Darragh towards Italy, and high pressure is building over the north of the UK – which should last in place until the weekend, if not longer.

Today will be mostly cloudy, some occasional bits of light rain, some sunny breaks also. Feeling chilly in the north-easterly wind, around 7’C. Cloudy overnight, the odd bit of light rain possible, around 6’C.

Tuesday will be mostly cloudy and mostly dry – bar the odd bit of light rain/drizzle. Around 6’C and still feeling rather chilly in the north-easterly wind. Mostly cloudy and mostly dry overnight, around 4’C.

Wednesday will again be cloudy all day, perhaps a little sunshine in the afternoon. 6’C in an easterly breeze. Mostly cloudy overnight though a few clear breaks possible – perhaps some drizzle by dawn, around 3’C.

Thursday again looks mostly cloudy, perhaps a bit of sunshine at times, and also a greater chance of some showers which should be on the light side of the spectrum. Around 7’C in fairly light winds. Probably cloudy overnight, around 5’C.

Friday probably will be cloudy all day once more, a chance of some light rain/drizzle at times, and temperatures roughly around 6’C. Perhaps less cloud overnight – which means a chance of frost/fog, though low confidence at this stage.

For the weekend, our area of high pressure slips towards south-east Europe, but a new area is waiting to the west.

Details still a bit sketchy for the weekend, but current thinking is that Saturday may have a weak weather front brining cloud and some patchy rain – though clearer skies once it has cleared. And temperatures around 7’C. Frost possible overnight.

Sunday more likely to see sunshine, or hazy sunshine – depending on how close weather fronts are to our north.

Aforementioned weather fronts will arrive at some point early next week (well, almost certainly will) – though high pressure may hold them away for a day or two. Once they break through, an unsettled week is probable.

I’ll be back later in the week.…