Mostly fine and warm, though an increasing chance of some showers from Sunday onwards.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

So we are still in pretty much the same general pattern as we have been in for a while now, low pressure to the north of the country, ridges of high pressure across the south, keeping us mostly settled.

Thursday starts sunny. Some fair-weather cloud will bubble up through the lunchtime period, and some high cloud at times, but broadly it will be a pretty sunny day. Warm, 22’C and a bit of a breeze. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Friday sees an area of high cloud move up from the south, associated with a thundery low over France, but otherwise it will be a pleasant day with hazy sunshine, and some fair-weather cloud too. A shade warmer, 23’C, maybe 24’C. On the cloudier side overnight, with a small chance of a shower drifting up from France. Around 14’C.

Saturday looks fairly cloudy but fairly warm, as the cloudy remnants of France’s thundery low drift north – most likely we’ll stay dry but a shower not impossible. Some hazy sunshine at times still likely, and perhaps some sunny spells late in the day. Around 22’C. On the cloudy and warm side overnight, around 15’C or so – an outside chance of importing a thunderstorm, but unlikely.

Complexity is increasing by Sunday – we have high pressure in charge to our north-east, trying to drag hot air in from the east, but also weather fronts trying to approach from the west, and a thundery low still hanging around over France.

Details for Sunday are uncertain. Broadly speaking, there should be some good sunny spells, though the sunshine and warmth will likely trigger showers somewhere over England – so a 30-40% chance of some thundery downpours developing during the afternoon/evening. Also a chance of a morning thundery shower, and some more cloud associated with it – though this aspect less likely and less certain. Likely humid and hot, say around 27’C or so, but that does depend on a reasonable amount of sunshine – and could easily be a couple of degrees either side.

Don’t be too surprised if it doesn’t quite pan out exactly like this – if you have plans then do check other weather forecasts nearer the time.

Overnight likely on the cloudy and warm side, showers possible, and around 16’C.

Again Monday is uncertain on details, but broadly speaking a weather front most likely pushes across from the west at some point during the day – hazy sunshine and very warm before it does, some rain as it crosses. Somewhat fresher after. Timing uncertain. Assuming the weather front arrives middle of the day, then reaching around 24’C – early in the day, then 21’C, late in the day then 26’C.

More likely Tuesday and Wednesday see temperatures around normal, say 20’C or so, with sunny spells and scattered showers. Not especially high confidence.

The more likely outcome for late next week and into next weekend sees high pressure building close to the UK, so we should see more in the way of sunshine and warmth, perhaps becoming very warm/quite hot. However, there are also signs of thundery lows over the near continent which could at times bring some thunderstorms, or general heavy rain our way over this period. Next weekend could easily be hot and sunny, but instead it could easily pour down with rain all weekend. Or some mixture of the two – it is quite finely balanced right now!

Enjoy your weekend – looking hot and sunny for me in Prague, though perhaps too hot for walking around all day. Might have to check out a bar or three, I guess. Next forecast should be on Tuesday, all being well.…

Briefly hot again this week, and mostly warm and settled in general.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

So we start the week with a weak ridge of high pressure, again, though we’ll see it build to our east somewhat over the next couple of days, allowing hotter air to spread up from the south.

Bank Holiday Monday will be reasonable, generally a fair amount of cloud around but also some decent sunny spells – especially later in the day. A small chance of a shower this morning, but otherwise dry. A bit warmer, 22’C in a westerly breeze. Fairly clear skies overnight, around 14’C.

Tuesday will see hazy sunshine for much of the day, always a fair amount of high/mid-level cloud around. Very warm, reaching around 25’C. Quite a lot of high/mid-level cloud around overnight, perhaps a spot of rain, around 15’C.

Wednesday sees a fair amount of high/mid-level cloud around again, but we’ll keep hazy sunshine for much of the day. A small chance of a shower later in the day. Becoming quite hot, around 27’C or so and somewhat humid too. That high cloud pushes east overnight and fresher air follows, down to around 12’C.

Thursday looks a pleasant day once more, sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud and a small chance of a shower. Warm, around 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

By Friday we start to see high pressure building, more over the UK this time, which should lead to a more consistent settled spell.

A bit of uncertainty on cloud amounts for Friday, likely some cloud at least but also some decent spells of sunshine, perhaps hazy. Around 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Saturday sees good spells of sunshine – likely some fair-weather cloud and reaching around 23’C. Clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Sunday (the first day of autumn…yikes) also sees good spells of sunshine, and a bit of cloud around. Warm, 23’C, maybe a tad more. Down to around 11’C overnight.

Most likely the settled and warm conditions continue into the week after.

Kind of just realised that autumn starts on Sunday, but I’m away in Prague for the weekend (recommendations always welcomed!), so the autumn seasonal forecast will probably be delayed until a few days into September. Next full forecast should be on Thursday morning.

Enjoy the rest of the bank holiday weekend, and the last stages of summer.…

Briefly autumnal, but then gradually improving during the weekend – and becoming hotter and sunnier again during next week.

Thanks to Louise for the photograph.

So we start with a fairly vigorous secondary pressure system, connected to the main low to our north.

Friday starts with some cloud and light rain, but this is quickly pushed east and replaced by sunny spells, some fair-weather cloud. Likely some high cloud pushing up from the south-west this afternoon, making it a bit hazy. Winds slowing easing but remaining breezy, around 21’C. Cloud thickens this evening with rain arriving after midnight – heavy at times. No lower than 13’C.

Saturday morning will be wet, with heavy rain – potentially very heavy at times. Lunchtime onwards it will become more showery, there will be some limited sunny spells – but said sunny spells will only cause some beefy showers to develop, potentially very heavy and thundery. Probably no higher than 18’C. Mostly clear skies overnight and down to around 10’C.

Sunday starts sunny. Plenty of cloud will bubble up with a mostly cloudy spell lunchtime onwards for a fair few hours. It should stay dry though temperatures still lower than normal, around 19’C, maybe squeeze a 20’C. Also breezy once more. Some cloud overnight, a shower possible, around 13’C.

Bank Holiday Monday sees more in the way of sunshine. Still some cloud bubbling up, a 30% chance of a shower – roughly speaking about the same amount of cloud and sunshine over the course of the day. Warmer, 22’C. High cloud spreading across overnight, around 14’C.

Change afoot by Tuesday as high pressure develops close to our east – though weather fronts still close to our west.

Most likely Tuesday is either sunny or sees hazy sunshine, and it will be very warm – around 25’C. There is some uncertainty over how close weather fronts to our west are, but likely far enough away for it to stay sunny, or hazily sunny.

Wednesday sees the breeze coming from the south, so we’ll be importing hotter air. Most likely we’ll see good spells of sunshine, temperatures between 26’C and 28’C more likely.

By Thursday things become much more uncertain, as low pressure approaches from the west. The weather models were treating it as a small low that would drift south-east towards Spain/Portugal, and act as a heat pump – that’s still possible, but now it seems slightly more likely it will drift across the UK, and introduce fresher air.

So if we deal with slightly more likely outcome first, this sees low pressure crossing the north of the UK, and bringing showers at some point, more likely Thursday, perhaps Friday – hot before it arrives, but then more likely back to warm/very warm and sunny for the weekend.

The slightly less likely outcome sees low pressure drifting down to Spain/Portugal, or to the west of it, allowing hotter air to spread up – which could see temperatures in the low 30’C for a few days. This outcome also brings a risk of thunderstorms at some point.

Roughly a 60/40 split in likelihood, and remember these are broad outcomes, there could be some other solution, or a mix of both solutions.

Reasonable confidence on the first week of September being on the warm and sunny side of the spectrum.

So not quite a glorious bank holiday weekend, but at least Monday looks very pleasant, and there is more summer to come. Enjoy your weekend!…

A mixed week ahead with a westerly flow, and the remnants of Hurricane Ernesto by Friday – but some warm sunshine still in the mix too.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograph.

We start the week with a ridge of high pressure, with low pressure systems to the east of Iceland, and one between Iceland and Scotland – a bit closer to the UK than they have been.

We start the day with hazy sunshine. Thicker cloud will spread across from the west during the morning, perhaps a spot of rain but most likely it will stay dry. Cloud breaking up somewhat later, but still hazy sunshine rather than full-on sunshine. Reaching around 20’C and becoming quite windy later. Some showers in the evening as a weather front pushes through, possible quite heavy. Cloudy and with some drizzle and perhaps a heavier shower for most of the rest of the night. Around 16’C.

Tuesday starts sunny. Another band of cloud will cross in the morning with a shower or two around, then back to sunny spells and fair-weather cloud. Warmer, 22’C, maybe 23’C, but still quite windy – especially later in the afternoon. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Quite a lot of cloud around on Wednesday, but it should break up at times to at least bring some hazy sunshine, more so in the morning. Still on the warm side, around 22’C and a lighter breeze once more. Mostly high/mid-level cloud overnight and around 14’C.

Thursday sees the remnants of Hurricane Ernesto approach – most of its energy now dissipated as part of the low pressure to our north, but still a notable feature.

Hazy sunshine to start the day, it will gradually cloud over with some rain in the afternoon – mostly light and patchy but a heavy burst possible. More notable will be the winds, gusting around 40mph around lunchtime so pretty strong for August in the UK. Still warmish, around 21’C. Cloudy for most of the night but the winds will ease, around 14’C.

Friday is uncertain, but it looks like a secondary low will have developed of the tail of Ernesto – quite how much it will of developed is uncertain, but a windy day is probable, some rain at some point is probable – but whether it is patchy rain for a couple of hours, or a longer spell of heavier rain remains the main question. Still on the warm side.

That does make the bank holiday weekend uncertain too, or at least the start of it – the secondary low potentially could still be around on Saturday – so there’s a chance of rain on Saturday, more likely the morning if so. But I stress – uncertain. If it has cleared on Friday, then sunny spells, fair-weather cloud is the more likely outcome.

For Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday, again not especially high confidence, but fairly mixed conditions, some cloud, some sun, around 21’C or so and maybe a weak weather front at some point bringing some patchy rain.

Probably back to somewhat warmer and sunnier after that, and maybe lasting into the beginning of September. Oh…autumn. It’s coming, isn’t it?…

More sunshine and warmth – not all the time, but plenty of it.

Thanks to Fay for the photograph.

We continue with the same kind of pattern we’ve had for a while, low pressure near Iceland on a fairly notable jetstream, but high pressure nosing in across the south of the UK. Our good summer friend, the Azores High.

Sunny spells to start Thursday, though gradually clouding over during the day as a weakening weather front approaches from the west. Warm, 23’C though becoming quite windy later. Cloudy in the evening and overnight, a bit of occasional showery rain around, you may miss it all, you may get the odd heavy burst. Clearing towards dawn and no lower than around 16’C.

Still a bit of cloud on Friday morning but this will clear to leave good, and increasingly long spells of sunshine, if perhaps hazy at times in the afternoon. Very warm, around 25’C or so. Clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Saturday starts sunny. High cloud will push across from the west from around lunchtime onwards making it hazy, but still very pleasant. Warm, around 24’C or so. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Sunday remains fine with sunny spells. Some uncertainty on cloud amounts though likely more sunshine than cloud overall, and another very pleasant day. Warm, around 24’C or so. Gosh how nice it is to write forecasts like these. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 12’C.

Little change in the broad picture nearby next week, with ridges of high pressure still in control – though the jetstream becoming a bit more meridonal again as the next hurricane travels up the east coast of USA.

Monday broadly looks sunny and very warm, around 25’C – some cloud probable.

A weather front looks like it will cross either Monday night or during the first part of Tuesday, bringing some rain – sunny spells will follow later on Tuesday.

Wednesday most likely sees further sunshine, some cloud – uncertain on temperatures as (to be) ex-hurricane Ernesto will be approaching, which may bring warmer and more humid air along – though prior to that slightly fresher air may arrive. So it could be around 22’C or around 26’C.

Then the question for Thursday and beyond will be what will Ernesto do – more likely I think it will be caught up in the jetstream and bring wind/rain to Scotland, we’d stay dry and warm for Thursday with a weakening weather front bringing some rain at some point, maybe overnight or into Friday. And that would lead to a broadly decent bank holiday weekend, with more sunshine, some cloud and more likely mostly dry. I’d suggest this is around a 70% chance, as it stands.

Other less likely options see Ernesto heading south towards the west of Spain/Portugal and acting as a heat pump – which we haven’t really seen this summer in classic terms – to bring heatwave conditions.

Or maybe it takes a more southerly track over the UK, and brings some rain and wind for Thursday or Friday, and something more changeable for the bank holiday weekend, but nothing too poor.

So next weekend’s details will depend on what Ernesto does, but more likely it stays broadly similar to now. And I see no reason for the general pattern not to persist into the beginning of September.

Enjoy your weekend.…

One hot day, then staying very warm, quite often sunny, sometimes cloudy and not much rain in the forecast.

Interestingly the models have gone from a situation a month or two ago where they’d suggest high pressure a week away, only for another low pressure to appear – to now, where they show low pressure a week away, yet high pressure more or less clings on.

The general picture starts with low pressure close to our west, and the kink in the jetstream which has allowed it to drag up hot air from Spain.

Some areas of mid-level cloud at times during today, especially this morning – an outside chance of a shower. Otherwise plenty of sunshine, also some fair-weather cloud bubbling up this afternoon, when it should stay dry but there is a tiny chance of a thunderstorm developing somewhere over south-east England. Hot, getting to around 32’C which would make it the hottest day of 2024 – 35’C could be recorded near Cambridge. A warm start to the night but it will cool down as fresher air crosses, eventually down to around 13’C.

Tuesday looks mostly sunny, with some high level cloud making it hazy at times, and then slowly cloud thickening later in the day as a weather front approaches – the remnants of ex-tropical storm, Debby. Very warm, around 25’C. Cloud and bits of rain slowly spreading across overnight, any rain most likely light but possible we get a heavy burst or two mixed in. A fairly warm night, around 17’C.

Wednesday looks rather cloudy, with bits and pieces of light rain, possibly the odd heavier shower. Cloud breaking up somewhat in the afternoon, bringing sunny spells later. Some uncertainty on how much sunshine we get, and hence temperatures – but assuming we get at least a bit of afternoon sunshine then reaching around 23’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, and down to around 13’C.

Thursday sees the next weather system crossing the north of the country, whilst we just about stay dry once more. Hazy sunshine will be the theme, with cloud likely thickening later in the day as a weather front approaches. Some uncertainty on temperatures again, as it depends on how quickly the thicker cloud arrives, but roughly around 24’C, give or take. Some rain for a time overnight, around 14’C.

Same kind of broad picture for Friday and into the weekend – a westerly flow with the jetstream notable, low pressure to our north, high pressure continuing to nudge in from the south-west.

Perhaps still some cloud/rain to clear first thing on Friday, then sunny for much of the day, with a little cloud. Very warm, around 24’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, around 13’C.

Saturday likely starts sunny, but then sees a fair amount of cloud bubbling up, likely more cloud than sun for a while. Then more sunny spells later. Still warm, around 23’C, give or take.

Sunday broadly similar to Saturday, perhaps a bit more sunshine and a bit warmer.

I see no reason for this broad pattern to change for the start of next week, however it does look fairly likely that there will be a hurricane going up the east coast of USA next week – which could then have an impact on our weather later next week or into the bank holiday weekend. Whether that is positive or negative it is far too early to judge!

Have a pleasant week, and do make the most of the good weather, if you can.…

Becoming hot again by Sunday/Monday.

Photograph is from me this week, of a business estate in Croydon when I bought some paint. The only local photographs I have are of cloud and rain (unusually)…keeping them for next week.

The general picture sees a ridge of high pressure over the south of the UK, with low pressure closer than it has been, just to the north of Scotland, driven by a strengthening jetstream. Tropical storm Debby is off the coast of USA, and about to have an impact on our weather.

Today starts sunny, but during the morning cloud spreads across from the west, with some occasional mostly light/moderate rain and limited brightness. Breezy and around 20’C, perhaps a tad under. Patchy light rain and drizzle continues overnight, a fairly warm night at 17’C.

Friday sees any early cloud, patchy light rain clear fairly quickly, leaving good spells of sunshine and a bit of fair-weather cloud. Very warm, around 24’C or a tad more. Reasonably clear skies overnight, though tending to be a bit more cloud later, no lower than around 15’C.

Saturday starts fairly cloudy with another weak weather front passing through, bringing cloud and perhaps a little patchy rain. Some uncertainty as to how quickly it clears through, midday is probably the earliest it could clear into sunshine, late afternoon the latest, and as such there is a range of possible maximum temperatures, anywhere from 23’C to 27’C – depending on how quick the cloud breaks up. Clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C – though a small chance of mist/fog by dawn.

By Sunday, the remnants of Debby will still be over the US, but will have caused a kink in the jetstream which allows hotter air to spread up from Spain.

Long spells of sunshine likely all day, any earlier mist/fog will clear quickly, perhaps a little fair-weather cloud at times but otherwise a very pleasant summer day, and hot, around 30’C – give or take, becoming more humid too. A warm night likely overnight, somewhere between 18’C and 20’C – as low pressure approaches.

Details a bit more uncertain for Monday, as low pressure will be close to our north west, but we should hang onto the heat, and it should be hotter than Sunday, say 31’C, maybe 32’C – likely humid too, and breezy. Generally fairly sunny, some cloud, an outside chance of a shower but most likely dry. Fresher air gradually spreading across overnight, mostly clear skies and eventually down to around 14’C.

Tuesday looks reasonably sunny, some cloud around and the heat gone – around 23’C, give or take. The remnants of Debby bringing a bit of rain in the evening and overnight.

Wednesday a bit more uncertain on details, but probably cloudier earlier, sunnier later – the odd shower and warm.

From there day to day details are too uncertain, though broad-scale the jetstream looks to be further south once more, so some rain at times looks probable, but not a washout – with sunny, warm days just as much in the mix, if not more so.

The more likely outcome for the latter part of August keeps the same kind of pattern, a westerly flow, probably slightly drier than average, but some cloudier days with some rain, some pleasantly sunny days. Hot weather less likely than normal for late August, but still possible.

Enjoy the weekend, and the hot weather if you can cope!…

Generally very warm but mixed conditions ahead for the week.

Thanks to Fiona for the photograph.

We start the week with a ridge of high pressure over the south of the UK, low pressure not far away towards Iceland.

A fairly sunny start for Monday, a spell of cloud will push across from the west in the morning, though remaining dry and bright. Sunny spells again in the afternoon and very warm, 24’C. Becoming breezy. Some cloud, some clear spells for most of the night, though cloudier by dawn as a weather front approaches. A fairly warm night, down to around 16’C.

Tuesday morning sees a band of cloud and some mostly light rain cross – a heavy burst is possible, but most likely any rain is light. Sunny spells and fair weather cloud follow for the afternoon, very warm but breezy again, around 24’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Sunny spells to start Wednesday but it looks like a lot of cloud will develop, to bring a rather cloud day from mid/late-morning onwards, with a few sunny spells. A small chance of a light shower. Around 22’C and breezy. Cloud clearing overnight, down to around 12’C.

Thursday probably starts sunny, but cloud will spread across from the west as a small feature crosses the country – uncertain on rainfall amounts, perhaps no rain down here, or just a little drizzle – but there is a chance of some heavier bursts also developing. Around 21’C and notably breezy, if not quite windy. Mostly cloudy and fairly warm overnight, a chance of some further bits of showery rain – likely no lower than 17’C.

By Friday, we remain in our westerly flow, with high pressure trying to nudge up from the south-west. The jetstream stronger once more.

Not especially high confidence on details, but at the moment more likely cloudier in the morning, perhaps still a bit of patchy rain to clear – sunnier in the afternoon. Likely very warm, 24’C or a bit more. Likely clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Much more uncertain for Saturday – high pressure will be trying to build from the south-west at the same time that a (probably) decaying low pressure crosses the UK. I guess more cloud than sun overall, with some rain possible later – feeling very warm once more, but how warm it gets will depend on sunshine amounts, most likely between 22’C and 27’C.

Don’t be surprised if it is instead cloudy all day with some rain – likewise if it is sunny all day and cloud/rain remains further north.

I cannot guess at Sunday yet. Likely very warm, but otherwise it could be anything.

There’s quite a lot going on driving the uncertainty. A re-invigorated jetstream, and attempted push of hot air from Spain, and the uncertainty over the track of hurricane Debby.

Suggestions are that the push of hot air from Spain may cause some very heavy, thundery rain for early next week – but take this with a huge pinch of salt. There was a chance it may bring a brief very hot spell, but seems unlikely now, though not impossible.

Going further forward, it looks somewhat more likely that changeable conditions will dominate, with something less warm and more unsettled, at least for a time – but as I mentioned, there is a lot going on, and this could change.…

Remaining very warm, occasionally hot, often but not always sunny – some showers and cloud in the mix too.

Thanks to Kirsty for the photograph of yesterday’s storm. I did eventually get a storm in Croydon, where I live now, and two of the claps of thunder were insanely loud, like nothing I’ve heard before…actually made me jump and I’m normally very chilled!

Nothing so exciting for today.

So the general picture sees a ridge of high pressure in charge still, with low pressure towards Iceland, not really going anywhere for a few days, but it will send one or two weak weather fronts our way.

Today starts gloomy with the overhang from yesterday’s storms, but this will gradually lift and clear into good sunny spells, a bit of cloud but it should become mostly sunny for a time, say, lunch/early afternoon onwards. Somewhat more cloud later in the afternoon and into the evening. Fairly hot again, reaching around 27’C. Cloud gradually thickening overnight, perhaps a spot of rain in the evening though mostly it should be dry, a chance of an overnight shower too. Another fairly warm night, likely no lower than 17’C.

Saturday starts with a weak weather front over us, bringing fairly cloudy conditions, some bright spells, also a little showery rain in places – perhaps heavy, though also you could miss it all and stay dry – it will likely be very patchy. Gradually during the afternoon it will become sunnier. Still very warm, though less than it has been, reaching around 24’C. High cloud spreading across in the evening and overnight, a fresher night – down to around 13’C.

Sunday will see high/mid-level cloud for most of the day, and therefore will be bright with hazy sunshine. Very warm again, around 24’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 14’C.

A fairly close call for Monday, as a weather front will be trying to push across from the west – but we should stay broadly fine, with some cloud likely at times, but some good spells of sunshine too. Temperatures back up, 26’C seems achievable, perhaps a bit more. Clear spells at first overnight, cloud slowly spreading from the west as that weather front edges ever closer. Around 15’C.

By Tuesday, little has changed – that low pressure near Iceland is still pretty much in the same spot as it was on Friday, having spun around and gone nowhere, and we are still just about under a ridge of high pressure.

It looks like that weather front will move across bringing mostly cloud but some showery rain is possible too – timing uncertain, but perhaps morning more likely. Sunny spells either side, and likely still warm or very warm – assuming we get some sunshine.

Details for Wednesday and Thursday are a little sketchy, as another weak weather front is likely to cross at some point – bringing cloud and perhaps a spot of rain, probably more likely Thursday.

Broadly both days will be dry, uncertain on cloud/sunshine amounts but there should at least be some sunshine both days, so temperatures therefore uncertain – anywhere between 22’C and 28’C depending on sunshine amounts.

Friday and into next weekend are somewhat uncertain, though I’d say drier and sunnier weather is more likely than otherwise, and hot weather is slightly more likely than warm/very warm.

There are hints of another push of hot air from Spain either next weekend or the week after…though also there are suggestions that there might be an ex-hurricane curving into the Atlantic, which if it falls nicely could shift the Azores high our way a bit more. Both only things to watch right now…a long way from either happening.

Enjoy your weekend…not a bad spell of weather this, is it?…