Thursday 18th July 2024

Briefly hot, then back to changeable, though not too much in the way of rain – and warm/very warm in general.

Thanks to Zara for the photograph…from when I received a few sunny photographs but didn’t have any sunny weather.

We start the forecast with a fairly weak ridge of high pressure over us and the near continent – the next low pressure is approaching, but as it does, it is dragging hotter air up from Spain/Portugal towards us.

So a taste of summer, but nothing more. Today starts with a fair amount of medium-level cloud around, but with bright/sunny spells. This theme of often hazy sunshine continuing all morning, though cloud tending to break during the afternoon to bring clearer skies. Quite hot, around 27’C. A fairly warm night, eventually getting down to around 14’C.

Friday again starts with some high/mid-level cloud, making sunshine hazy at times. Generally this clears, some fair-weather cloud may bubble up but generally it should be a glorious day, full of sunshine. Hot, 30’C, maybe 31’C. Cloud slowly thickening overnight as a weather front approaches, so a warm night, and no lower than 16’C.

There’s quite a lot of uncertain on specific details for Saturday, but generally the theme is for a weather front to slowly approach from the west. This likely brings some level of cloud in the morning, some hazy sunshine too, perhaps a shower though unlikely. In the afternoon, the cloud should (I stress should) break up to allow more in the way of sunshine, with temperatures reaching around 27’C, and likely more humid too. A small chance of a heavy, thundery shower – but more likely if they break out, they do so further north-east than here. In the evening and overnight, the weather front crosses bringing cloud, and perhaps a bit of light rain, and the odd scattered heavy shower. A warm and fairly uncomfortable night, around 18’C.

Sunday may see some cloud and patchy rain to start, but this will clear, if it already hadn’t. Follows will be sunny spells and fair weather clouds, a fresher feel and temperatures around 22’C – so still warm. Clear spells at first overnight, cloud thickening later, down to around 13’C.

By Monday we see the next low pressure system arriving, though again a fairly weak affair and likely to our north. The Azores high ridging a bit into Europe, and the hottest air seemingly rebalancing away from the south-east of Europe to the south-west – perhaps early signs of a broad-scale pattern change.

Details again a bit patchy for Monday, but broadly speaking a weak weather front crossing, bringing a fair amount of cloud, some patchy rain – but also there should be some sunny spells, and assuming so then we’ll reach around 23’C.

Tuesday probably a mixture of sunny spells and variable amounts of cloud – perhaps slightly more cloud than sunshine overall, and around 22’C – give or take.

Wednesday probably dry, uncertain on cloud amounts and likely warm – around 23’C.

Thursday becomes more uncertain, I think a weather front approaching – but the timing could be during the day, with some cloud and rain, or in the evening/overnight with a very warm and bright day first.

Next weekend is highly uncertain – it could be fine and warm, it could be showery, there is also a small chance of a short hot spell.

There seems hints of a pattern change, possibly I’m reading too much into it, but I’ve certainly got some hope for more settled weather in August – though I have done for some time now. If I’m right, it will be the best month of the summer, at least for the majority who want it warm, dry and often sunny – not everyone likes summer as much as I do!

I’m not saying to expect a classic summer month, just something decent. And it isn’t that bad in the meantime!

Enjoy the brief heat, if you can.…

Monday 15th July 2024

Well, our run without a trophy continues as does our run without a summer…though there are a couple of summer-like days later this week, in a still mixed week. Not a total disappointment.

Thanks to Fay for the photograph.

Not much change to the general picture as we start the week, with the jetstream still much further south than it should be in summer, though weaker for the time being. The next under-developed low pressure arriving too.

Monday starts cloudy but bright. The cloud continues to thicken and some patchy rain will arrive probably late morning, or through the lunchtime period, and as the afternoon goes on there will be some heavy outbreaks of rain too, perhaps very heavy – though somewhat showery in nature. A small chance of thunder mixed in too. Reaching around 21’C for a time, though dropping as the showery rain becomes heavier. The bulk of the showery rain clears north in the evening, to leave a mostly dry night, some cloud, some clear spells – a chance of a shower later in the night, and around 13’C.

Tuesday starts cloudy, further showery rain at times possible. Gradually during the afternoon it will become somewhat sunnier, though always plenty of cloud and still some scattered showers, which could be heavy/very heavy. Reaching around 20’C in a north-westerly breeze. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 13’C.

Wednesday sees a ridge of high pressure building. Sunny to start, a fair amount of fair-weather cloud will bubble up, with more cloud than sunshine likely though the lunchtime period, but then becoming sunnier as the afternoon goes on – though also some high cloud building so a bit hazier later too. Notably warmer, around 24’C. Gosh…summer. Cloud thickening overnight, around 15’C.

Thursday sees more in the way of high/mid-level cloud making things hazy, as a weak weather front crosses – an outside chance of a spot of drizzle in the morning, but it will be bright most of the time. And during the afternoon, the cloud will break more, to allow at least hazy sunshine, if not actual proper sunshine. Quite hot, 26’C, maybe a tad more. Some cloud overnight, around 15’C or so.

The general picture for Friday sees the Azores High trying to build further, though the jetstream will also have more energy and be close to our north.

Some uncertainty on cloud amounts, there may be a weak weather front with some embedded cloud for a time, but otherwise spells of sunshine, or hazy sunshine and becoming quite hot again. Some uncertainty on temperatures – but broadly between 25’C and 28’C. Cloud building overnight, at least somewhat, and around 15’C.

Can the warmer and drier conditions last into the weekend? Probably not, alas, but I don’t say that with full confidence.

Details are currently sketchy for the weekend, a weather front will try to cross on Saturday – but this could arrive any time from during the morning, to during the night – if the latter then we would score another very warm day with some hazy sunshine, with rain arriving evening/overnight. Of course, if the weather front arrives during the day, then expect some rain instead – though probably nothing especially heavy.

Low confidence for Sunday, but more likely more cloud than sunshine, and some bits of rain at some point – again, nothing especially heavy likely, with temperatures warmish.

There is still scope for upgrades or downgrades for the weekend – it is fairly loosely modelled right now.

Next week more likely starts somewhat showery, though may again become drier and much warmer later in the week. Low confidence on both aspects, for now.

Something of an improvement. Time to go enjoy my hangover. Next update will be Thursday or Friday morning.…

Friday 12th July 2024

Fairly mixed weather ahead, but less rain and a bit more warmth next week.

Thanks to Lene for the photograph.

So the general picture sees low pressure just over the road in France/Belgium, with high pressure close to our west/north-west (and heatwave conditions over SE Europe…far, far away!).

Friday starts cloudy due to the low pressure in the continent – there may be a bit of rain at times this morning, though the main rain is to our south-east and will stay there. The afternoon will be generally dry and fairly cloudy, a bit of brightness at times, the odd spot of rain possible too – a small chance of a heavier shower. Around 18’C. The evening and overnight remain mostly cloudy, a bit of patchy rain likely at times, mostly from late evening onwards – though the main rain area will remain to our east. Down to around 12’C.

Saturday starts mostly cloudy, a bit of brightness possible. One or two scattered showers during the morning, a bit more sunshine as the afternoon goes on, but showers will also become heavier and more frequent – you may miss them all, but around 70% chance you’ll get at least a couple of showers. Around 19’C at best. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Sunday starts sunny! Cloud will quickly bubble up and it will be mostly cloudy from mid-morning onwards, one or two scattered showers too. But again from mid-afternoon onwards it should brighten up with some sunny spells. Warmer, around 21’C. Clear spells at first overnight though clouding over somewhat as the night goes on, around 14’C.

Monday sees the next area of low pressure move in – a fairly weak affair but sufficient to at least bring some heavy showers, perhaps with thunder – and a lower chance of a spell of general rain. Still on the warm side, around 21’C, maybe a tad more. Scattered heavy showers still possible in the evening/overnight, around 15’C.

Tuesday is pretty similar – sunny spells and scattered heavy showers, perhaps a rumble of thunder, though some places will miss the showers – say around a 60% of catching a couple during the day. On the warm side, around 22’C or so. Clear skies overnight, around 12’C.

Likely more cloud by Wednesday, making the sunshine hazy at best, though also some warmer air around, say between 22’C and 24’C, and likely it stays dry.

Uncertain thereafter, though slightly more likely Thursday and Friday are very warm instead of warm, probably dry though I wouldn’t want to promise it! Next weekend perhaps more likely back to showery, though very low confidence.

The jetstream hasn’t shifted north, and until it does we’ll remain at risk of further spells of unsettled weather. There are hints it may do this towards the end of July and/or into August, which would allow something more settled – though hoping for settled spells longer than a week seems ambitious.

There are no signals for an extended spell of high pressure, just hints it may improve somewhat. Of course, things can change upstream, perhaps a hurricane may curve into the Atlantic and shift the jetstream further north, as can happen.

Time to book another holiday, I guess! Enjoy the weekend, at least it isn’t a total washout.…

Monday 8th July 2024

More rain to come. It is July, after all.

Thanks to Lucinda for the photograph.

The general pattern to start the week is fairly innocuous, but a stalled low pressure to our south-west will be developing, and start to head our way, and the jetstream, though a bit weaker, is much further south than should be normal in summer.

It will be a fairly cloudy day, the cloud thin enough for some hazy sunshine at times, but on the flip side also some showers – mostly from late morning through early afternoon. Around 17’C or so. Further rain arrives during the evening, some heavy bursts at times, particularly around midnight and into the early hours. It should be dry by dawn. No lower than 14’C.

Tuesday starts mostly cloudy, perhaps a few sunny spells. Further showery rain will spread up from the south by late morning, perhaps heavy, an outside chance of thunder. Around 19’C – the air source is warmer. One or two showers in the evening and overnight, around 15’C.

Wednesday starts fairly cloudy, showers still possible – though it should improve as low pressure pulls away to the north. The afternoon gradually becoming sunnier, showers by this point unlikely – though not impossible. Warmer, around 22’C. Mostly clear skies overnight, down to around 11’C.

Thursday looks a reasonable day – plenty of high/mid-level of cloud meaning hazy sunshine for much of the day, but otherwise fine. Around 22’C. A chance of some heavy showers spreading up from the south-west by the evening, but uncertain on this. This chance of heavy showers or even heavy rain continues overnight – due to an expected low pressure system over northern France, but it is uncertain as to how far north it gets.

Friday sees high pressure building in from the north-west – but also a likely low pressure over northern France, perhaps into south-east England too.

Friday is uncertain as it will depend on the positioning of the low – at best, showery and around 18’C or so, at worst, wet at around 14’C.

Low confidence also for Saturday, and it will depend on what happened on Friday. If low pressure was further away on Friday, and it was showery, then Saturday most likely would also be along the lines of sunshine and showers, around 20’C. If low pressure was closer, then we may still have cloud and rain to start, and it would be a gradual improvement though likely on the cloudy side, and around 16’C.

Sunday, again not especially high confidence, though more likely sunnier, warmer and drier than it has been, around 21’C or so.

Next week likely starts with more low pressure approaching – with the jetstream as far south as northern France, this ain’t good if you want summer.

Can summer be rescued? There remain hints of a spell of high pressure in the latter half of July, but I think high amounts of scepticism are required when the jetstream is so far south – it will need something to happen to push it back north.

Oh well. At least we have the football to enjoy.…

Friday 5th July 2024

A new dawn has broke, has it…oh…it’s raining again. A pretty mixed week or so ahead, but you’ll notice the spells of heavy rain more.

Photograph is from me, as the only ones in my inbox are of clear blue skies!

Starting with the general picture, which sees low pressure to our north-east, with a developing secondary low crossing the south of the UK. The Azores high way out west.

Friday starts cloudy with rain. This will become patchier and generally lighter by late morning, give or take, before another pulse of heavy, perhaps very heavy rain arrives late afternoon and into the evening. Around 18’C – a breeze at times, notably so in the heavier rain come early evening. Rain turning to showers as the evening goes on, some clear spells overnight though a chance of another shower or two. Down to around 11’C.

Saturday is a day of sunshine and showers. Variable amounts of cloud, most places seeing at least a few showers and they should be heavy, perhaps very heavy with a rumble of thunder. Quite windy too, especially in showers, and reaching around 17’C. July. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

More showers on Sunday, though I think also some more general mid-level cloud – so in between showers less sunshine than on Saturday. Most places getting a few, if not quite a lot of heavy showers, potentially very heavy/torrential with thunder mixed in. Still breezy, but less notable and reaching around 17’C. Reasonably clear skies overnight, down to around 10’C.

Monday starts sunny, but cloud will thicken during the morning, to leave it more in a state of hazy sunshine – perhaps a shower but more likely it stays dry. Staying bright but mostly cloudy for the rest of the day. Around 18’C. A spell of rain spreading north overnight, around 14’C.

For Tuesday we have low pressure in charge again, but now to our south-west/west, which allows warmer air to return.

Uncertainty on details, plenty of cloud but perhaps some hazy sunshine, heavy/very heavy showers are likely to break out, perhaps thundery, and/or perhaps a spell of general heavy/very heavy rain. It will feel warmer, and more humid – around 20’C, but it could be 2-3’C either side. An outside chance of importing a proper thunderstorm from France in the evening/overnight – not anything to expect right now, but worth keeping an eye on. Otherwise fairly cloudy overnight, around 15’C.

Fairly low confidence for Wednesday, but an improvement of sorts as low pressure heads north. Showers still possible, but less likely, and around 20’C or so.

Suggestions for Thursday/Friday are that low pressure is close to our south-east, over France, etc – with high pressure building to our north-west. I’d suggest that means cloud and showers are more likely than sunny spells – but a pretty close call.

Likewise you can have hope for the ridge of high pressure moving across the UK next weekend, to bring something drier, but very, very low confidence.

Further ahead, I’m even warier than normal because of what the impacts of the exceptional heat over western USA, and also the hurricane season will have on the strength and direction of the jetstream. Currently there are signs (and have been on and off for a while) that the jetstream will head north around mid-July, to allow warmer/hotter and drier conditions for the second half of July – but I remain highly sceptical right now.

Enjoy your weekend, and keep an umbrella handy! At least we had one drier than normal month.…

Monday 1st July 2024

Not too bad a week, at least to start, but gradually becoming more unsettled. It feels like a pivotal week for the rest of the summer.

Thanks to Tracy for the photograpgh.

The general picture sees the Azores high rather bloated and just about keeping us settled in the south of the UK, but this is competing against a re-invigorated jetstream.

Today starts sunny but it will soon cloud over from the west, and stay mostly cloudy as a weak weather front crosses. A little rain possible this afternoon, but just as likely to stay dry, and some limited sunny spells around still. Fairly warm, 21’C. Continuing mostly cloudy this evening and tonight, a little patchy rain/drizzle possible at times, and down to around 12’C. Some clear spells possible by dawn.

Tuesday may start sunny, it also may start cloudy – and either way will become/stay cloudy during the rest of the morning, again perhaps some light rain/drizzle. The cloud will thin and break a bit in the afternoon to bring some sunny spells, though plenty of cloud remains likely. Around 20’C. Fairly cloudy overnight, some outbreaks of rain likely before dawn (perhaps even as early as by midnight) as a slightly more active weather front arrives. Around 13’C.

Wednesday starts cloudy with bits and pieces of rain, mostly light or moderate. Drier in the afternoon, but remaining mostly cloudy with still a little drizzle at times possible. Cool for July, 17’C and breezy. Further light rain/drizzle in the evening and first part of the night, clear skies before dawn. Around 12’C.

Election Day sees a ridge of high pressure, decent sunny spells, some fair weather cloud – the better day of the week. Warmer, around 21’C, maybe a bit more. Clear skies at first overnight, though cloud thickening later, around 12’C.

Details become a bit trickier by Friday, but we start to see secondary lows developing off the main low pressure to our north.

Rain is likely on Friday as this secondary system develops and spreads across – but it could be just kind of damp with occasional rain, or it could be a spell of fairly heavy rain. Will need a couple more days to ascertain. Around 18’C or so.

Again the details for the weekend are not nailed down, but low pressure having more influence, so showers at best for Saturday and Sunday, with temperatures somewhere between 18’C and 20’C more likely – hardly joyful for July. There is also a chance of a spell of general rain on Sunday instead of showers.

I think this is the key point for the rest of July – if more low pressure systems then follow these into the UK, I think you can write-off a good chunk of summer.

However, if the next systems stall to our west, this could then allow more southerly flows – with heatwave conditions becoming possible.

I’m in the latter camp still, in terms of it being more likely to turn hot and settled, at least for a time mid-month, but there is more risk involved now we are getting closer.…